theweatheroutlook

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Brian Gaze
18 December 2023 17:57:09

If I may be allowed to be something other than dismissive, the Scandy height rise has again flickered into the beam of the GFS OP. Probably only a very low chance, but given it was an option a few days ago not to be discounted. 
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I noticed that. It could lead to a very cold or very wet period.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
18 December 2023 18:02:55
I know where my money would be!

I see there is still a very large range and uncertainty on Christmas Eve and to a slightly lesser degree Christmas Day itself on the GEFS 12z suite.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Martybhoy
18 December 2023 18:14:17
I’m calling it. White Christmas for swathes of Scotland and Northern England.
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
fairweather
18 December 2023 18:28:06

Don't worry, just wait a run or two.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yes, I've not checked in for a few days and then it was high pressure all the way to Christmas and just about where it would settle. Look at the charts now! Just shows how fragile they are past a week. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Quantum
18 December 2023 19:23:42
This is all over the place, I was more confident about xmas day a few days ago than I am now.

In the dark until the 0Z set I think.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
CField
18 December 2023 19:29:36
ECM 12z at 240 looks very promising...has heights building to the north.But I'm going with the driver of this winter ' heights to the south' as it migrates from the sw to a more central European position to buffer any drive down from the north...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
nsrobins
18 December 2023 19:30:22
Having seen the EC, I’m more interested in the idea of a sneaky height rise to the N/NE post Xmas.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
18 December 2023 20:05:43

ECM 12z at 240 looks very promising...has heights building to the north.But I'm going with the driver of this winter ' heights to the south' as it migrates from the sw to a more central European position to buffer any drive down from the north...

Originally Posted by: CField 



The next chase 😁 🍺 🍺🍺
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fullybhoy
18 December 2023 20:12:46

The next chase 😁 🍺 🍺🍺

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Some say the chase is better than the catch 👀😂
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
+1
UncleAlbert
18 December 2023 20:15:48

Anti-depressants for all?

Originally Posted by: DEW 


😄😄....🥴 ooops, 
and the pharmacies are shut then an' all!
doctormog
18 December 2023 20:24:10
The ECM 12z ensemble data is also fascinating with a large divergence on Christmas Eve.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Surrey John
18 December 2023 21:18:44
Is it just me, or is there indications of height rise over Iceland.

Always wary that models can be a bit wild at understanding the track of the jet stream, especially with the very windy day expected on Thursday.

The massive spread in ensembles after Sunday 24th suggests going to be pot luck with output for next day or two until they can nail down the jet stream
 
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
The Beast from the East
18 December 2023 23:09:37

Is it just me, or is there indications of height rise over Iceland.

Always wary that models can be a bit wild at understanding the track of the jet stream, especially with the very windy day expected on Thursday.

The massive spread in ensembles after Sunday 24th suggests going to be pot luck with output for next day or two until they can nail down the jet stream
 

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 



fascinating watching this develop. Seems Xmas day is the transition day to something potentially cold for all, 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Zubzero
19 December 2023 00:37:03
Shocking outlook imby on the GEFS for cold, will struggle to get a frost let alone any snow. Oh well hopefully there's a better outlook into the new year. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=303&y=104&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 
Retron
19 December 2023 06:54:14
Not much cheer for those of us in the south this morning - "Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, zonal all the way", the same refrain as usual at this time of year. Down here the MetO automated continues to show double-figure highs all the way up to, and including, Christmas Day.

Even the ECM's strat forecast has has a slight uptick, albeit the 10hPa zonal winds will continue to be weaker than normal, at times much below normal, for the foreseeable future.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312180000 

 
Leysdown, north Kent
BJBlake
19 December 2023 07:05:03

Not much cheer for those of us in the south this morning - "Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, zonal all the way", the same refrain as usual at this time of year. Down here the MetO automated continues to show double-figure highs all the way up to, and including, Christmas Day.

Even the ECM's strat forecast has has a slight uptick, albeit the 10hPa zonal winds will continue to be weaker than normal, at times much below normal, for the foreseeable future.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312180000 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

True enough, but the GFS Op is one of most zonal of the series. The control, is not without interest, although it presents a very stormy and less than happy New Year If it verifies, albeit with potential for snow.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2023 07:55:10
Helen Willetts this morning suggesting major gales (70-80mph gusts) across the north over the Christmas period with travel consequences.

WX view: rather mild across W Europe in week 1 but with significant advance S & W of cold weather in week 2 (from 27th), freezing weather back to Poland, ultra-cold for N Russia and N Scandinavia, significant cooling in Scotland. Pptn in week 1 from Atlantic - Scotland - countries S of the Baltic changing in week 2 to Atlantic - Britain - France and Germany.

GFS Op - starts with HP 1050 mb mid-Atlantic with NW-lies for all, dramatically enhanced  Christmas Day for NW Scotland by local LP 965mb Cape Wrath. Then through to Thu 4th HP moves to S France typically 1025mb with occasional forays N over Britain (Fri 29th, Tue 2nd) but interspersed with influence from LPs past or over Scotland (995mb Wed 27th, 980mb Fair Isle Mon 1st, 975mb Rockall Thu 4th), Scotland gets another bashing from S-ly Gales Sun 31st but otherwise zonal with variations.

ECM - less dramatic with HP closer but still with a NW-ly cast until Christmas Day, LP Wed 27th and HP Fri 29th as GFS

GEFS - in the S, rain now and then fairly frequently from Christmas Day onwards, further north missing out today but starting ca Sat 23rd and particularly heavy in the NW. Inverness showing snow row figure of 28/33 on Christmas Day, much less elsewhere and negligible in England. A couple of bursts of mild weather Thu 21st and Sat 24th then a sharp drop; the mean stays near norm but the individual ensemble members become an increasing scramble especially in the south.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Crepuscular Ray
19 December 2023 08:01:32
I wonder if Thursday's storm will be named?  There's only a few coo's and haggis to be inconvenienced up here so probably not 😂

Meanwhile the Scots are being warned of widespread disruption 🤔
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
CField
19 December 2023 08:06:32
UserPostedImageFirst Spanish Plume of 2024?
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2023 08:09:03

I wonder if Thursday's storm will be named?  There's only a few coo's and haggis to be inconvenienced up here so probably not 😂

Meanwhile the Scots are being warned of widespread disruption 🤔

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



The MetO yellow warning reaches down to Norfolk, not a coo and haggis county?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2023 08:28:36

The MetO yellow warning reaches down to Norfolk, not a coo and haggis county?

Originally Posted by: DEW 

We have the MetO yellow warning here too. Plenty of coos here but no haggis. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Brian Gaze
19 December 2023 09:01:30
Could be quite toasty in the south on Christmas Day.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
19 December 2023 09:15:03

Could be quite toasty in the south on Christmas Day.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The same suite which you highlighted had a number of low single digit possibilities for the south a few days ago.
‘Say what you see’ and all that but I question the wisdom of reactive posting when the output is so variable from run to run.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
19 December 2023 09:20:39

The same suite which you highlighted had a number of low single digit possibilities for the south a few days ago.
‘Say what you see’ and all that but I question the wisdom of reactive posting when the output is so variable from run to run.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



TBH, the UKM recommend pairing MOGREPS updates, so 00Z + 006Z, and 12Z + 18Z to reduce run to run variability. Therefore, it's possible the 06Z runs will tip the balance back a little. With that said, as the lead time shortens the accuracy should of course improve.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Downpour
19 December 2023 09:32:15

The same suite which you highlighted had a number of low single digit possibilities for the south a few days ago.
‘Say what you see’ and all that but I question the wisdom of reactive posting when the output is so variable from run to run.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



yes, my mild if not very mild forecast looks like it might be right, despite the flaming I received from the Gruesome TWOsome. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1

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