Having just looked at the big three 00Z models there is still some interest for us living up here
GFS shows it cold for the big day with a strong NW flow so Scotland could see some snow showers? There are cold shots further ahead too especially around Hogmanay
MetO shows a slider low across central England after Boxing Day with SE and E winds across Scotland, that's new!
As usual, ECM is more sensible but still very mobile! I think there are still opportunities for snow in the next two weeks especially the further north you are. It all looks very mobile and no long fetch SW winds which I loathe!
Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray
On Friday morning, I will be travelling down to Hawick to spend Christmas with my family and then I will be returning home on the following Friday.
It would be great if we could get a bit of snow whilst I am there, especially on Christmas Day but that was just be an added bonus as there has been a number of occasions in recent years when we haven't even had as much as a single air frost during this trips (just to add insult to injury, there has even been the odd occasion when this has happened despite the odd air frost being recorded here in Edinburgh during those periods when I've not even been here to be able to witness that).
Looking at the latest model output, there is a big question mark over whether or not, it will even be cold over Christmas and when is the case, it usually ends up not being all that cold in the end.
In addition to that, the latest models also indicate that if it is cold, that is likely to happen with the winds coming from the NW. That could deliver snow showers to some parts of Scotland.
When it comes to any form of showery activity though, Edinburgh is largely sheltered from that by the Ochil Hills, and the Scottish Borders is even more sheltered from that by the hills in that local area.
This means that if it is cold over that period, it is more likely to just be dry where I am with that also being the case in Edinburgh. If I was to stick my neck out on that one, I would go for Christmas Day where I am to be a day with a lot of cloud and only occasional sunny intervals, but a dry day with temperatures of around 5°C which for this time of year, isn't actually all that cold.
Adding all of that together, I'm not really holding out any hope for even a technical white Christmas where I am, although I do think that there may well be other parts of Scotland which do end up getting a white Christmas.
Edited by user
20 December 2023 09:50:59
|
Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.