WX charts show the large block of ultra cold weather presently localised over Scandinavia and N Russia flattening out over a presently mild Europe so that by week 2 freezing weather has spread SE-wards to the Balkans, Alps and Germany, with small patches even down to Spain. Britain and Atlantic fringes miss out; cooler but still under oceanic influence. Pptn in week 1 over Britain and most of N Europe except Scandinavia retreats in week 2 to the N Atlantic but the Mediterranean looks very wet.
GFS Op - remnants of Gerrit eventually pulling away E-wards to make room for new LP 975mb Irish Sea Sun 31st (FAX suggests that the associated frontal rain will move through on Sat) , part of which moves NW-wards towards Rockall, part splitting off and forming a centre over Germany by Wed 3rd. Pressure then rises over N Europe; on Fri 5th Britain is in a shallow trough between 1025mb Baltic and the same off Portugal; the latter comes to dominate and is centred as a large anticyclone 1040mb England Mon 8th, staying around though moving S-wards and generating SW-lies for Scotland. The N-lies on its other side are kept well to the East of the N Sea.
ECM - similar to GFS to Fri 5th when the trough between the two areas of HP is deeper for Britain, and any recovery is sabotaged by a deep local LP appearing 975mb Hebrides Sun 7th, this moving into the N Sea and pulling in NE-lies. on Mon 8th.
GEFS - Rain for a week from Sat 30th, becoming drier later in most though not all ens members; temps not far from norm, maybe milder for New Year's Day in the S, cooler led by op & control around the 8th at which point the various ens members already diverging do so more markedly. By the end op and control have switched to being very mild. Snow rows show the highest likelihood of snow for Thu 4th and that in the NE.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl