Let's see what this morning's output brings!
Originally Posted by: Retron
...and in the medium term, i.e. out to 168, the output brings good agreement of a weak ridge over the UK, as our high moves away westwards. A good deal of dry weather, then, with frosts for many.
It's beyond 168 that the fun starts, of course. ICON has the UK under a col at 180, with sub -8 850s over northern Scotland and above-zero 850s working their way northwards over SW England, in advance of an Atlantic low. A weakening front has brought snow to Scotland and northern England, with dry conditions elsewhere.
GFS keeps a weak ridge or a col over the UK out to 240, with sub -8 850s over the vast majority of the UK. It's mostly dry, though, with snow generally restricted to northern Scotland. There's further snow for parts of Scotland in the days after that, as the ridging declines. An Atlantic low then moves in, bringing wet and windy weather for all.
The GEFS, at the time of writing, are out to 192 - and show excellent agreement on a weak ridge or col over the UK. The interesting stuff happens afterwards, of course.
GEM is the coldest of the models this morning. It also has a weak ridge over the UK at 180, but beyond that the Atlantic low nearest to us fills, allowing an unstable northerly flow to cover the UK, bringing widespread snow. It's noteworthy too in that 500hPa heights are much lower than the other models, with the UK on the edge of the great Eurasian polar vortex lobe. Despite the snow and low heights, 850s struggle to reach -8 in the south; there are no such issues further north.
In a couple of hours the ECM will be out, and it'll be interesting to see what it serves up post-180.