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Gandalf The White
10 January 2024 09:03:46

Forecasters nightmare at the moment! Might get a little clearer nearer the time but pockets of sub zero/above zero dew points will make it watch what is falling half the time! M4 corridor is the most important weather boundary and will show its worth again no doubt 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Eastbound or westbound? Those 10 metres….
😉🤣
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gusty
10 January 2024 09:19:51
Cross model agreement at 120 hours for the cold air to envelop the whole country. That's good enough for me for now. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Hippydave
10 January 2024 09:20:30

Still looks marginal in the south to me but the snow prospects for the north are excellent. The ensembles (GEFS below) suggest we're not quite playing in the Premier League at the moment, at least in terms of the depth of cold which is being forecast. We don't need -10C 850s for snow, particularly if there is a continental feed, but next week could be messy in the south. The snow stamps are currently showing a much greater risk in central and northern areas

(snip)

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I sort of agree with the sentiment although the set up looks to be LPs moving into air cold enough for it to be snow for many, rather than a deeply cold convective spell - for the south obviously, the further north you go the more it looks like convective activity, troughs etc. are the things to look for. MBY needs slightly lower 850s in this kind of setup than say Wales and the Midlands but this kind of setup has frequently delivered disruptive snowfall with 850s only a degree or two below freezing (usually with that classic M4 line meaning snow to rain for me and grinding my teeth due to somewhere not far away getting 20+ cms). 

It's not snowy and cold nirvana in the far south but if it happened roughly as shown it would be chilly/cold with at least transient snow with the boundary probably in the far south initially as it stands, moving north with time if no further cold pushes occur. 

Still, I'd agree with just flagging the 850s to counter any unrealistic expectations but not seen that on this channel, guess it helps lurkers/guests to appreciate it's not a 'guaranteed' set up for cold and snow for the whole of the UK and deep and crisp and even is very much less likely for the far South. I'd be confident of at least some temporary lying snow even here though as it stands but this'll no doubt wobble around over the next few days and it wouldn't be a great surprise to see the snow/rain/milder boundary move north a touch.

Must admit I totally forgot the GEM in my model check this morning and that shows a route to a longer cold spell after frontal snow for some. Pinch of salt required as the op has swung around a fair bit into FI and the ens are a mess but nicely highlights one of the realistic colder routes with some frontal snow at times.   
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
10 January 2024 09:29:54
Putting my cynical hat on for southerners. In these warm front v cold boundary scenarios we often see a shifting south of the battleground with time so that the end result is a few flurries in the far south. After this a stronger push of milder air gives a brief snow to rain event. On this occasion all options are still on the table. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ballamar
10 January 2024 09:39:02

Eastbound or westbound? Those 10 metres….
😉🤣

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



be annoying watching the snow pile up if you were westbound and the other side stuck in snowdrifts!
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2024 09:39:14
No point over thinking the detail yet of any snow. It will change every run until we get there if it comes at all. If we can get to within 48 hours then we can be more confident. 
Looks  like we'll have about a week of snow chances from about 15th to 22nd before milder air wins out.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
10 January 2024 09:58:42
Next Friday has an interesting temp drop on the iPhone (IBM model?) 6c at midday and 0c at 1pm be interesting to experience!
Hippydave
10 January 2024 10:16:37
As the 6z trickles out the fun thing is I'm not sure much has really changed IMBY model wise for quite a while now. I always felt the second cold shot after the easterly was uncertain down here in terms of depth of cold for anything particularly interesting and as it stands that remains the case. 

It might get cold enough for lying snow.
It might get cold enough for snow to rain.
It might just be rain. 

The broader pattern of being a generally cold setup has I think also not changed that much, which is a thumbs up to the models. 

The 6z op at T162 is showing the LP not moving north much and the cold push heading back south.  Shouldn't really microanalyse these things but it's fun doing so:-

UserPostedImage
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Brian Gaze
10 January 2024 10:22:18
Mot sure if ECM ENS have been posted yet. TWO plot for London.

UserPostedImage
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
10 January 2024 10:22:40
On this run the precipitation stays over the other side of the channel but plenty of features for Scotland - will be fun there
Russwirral
10 January 2024 10:29:33

i suspect GFS will have a few more goes at a mild win out, before the fight back begins... with a battlefield winning out  somewhere over Northumblerland, then Leeds, then Brum, then Bournemouth.....then at the 11th hour is shunted into France where the battlefield really takes place. 😂

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



The above was from yesterday, i didnt think we would see a swing this fast.
Whiteout
10 January 2024 10:31:26
Wow, quite a 6z run keeps the cold locked in and the LP that is being talked about now only affecting the SW. I think that sums it up really, mega uncertainty....
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Whiteout
10 January 2024 10:34:42
Look where the jet is lol:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024011006/gfs-5-186.png?6 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Retron
10 January 2024 10:35:58

Wow, quite a 6z run keeps the cold locked in and the LP that is being talked about now only affecting the SW. I think that sums it up really, mega uncertainty....

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


A much better run IMBY! One thing that does seem certain is that much of Scotland is going to be hammered with snow early next week... I can imagine there'll be some fantastic pictures doing the rounds on the news (and on here, hopefully).

In other news, I see that sea ice is at its highest level for 20 years - every little helps, as Tesco says, especially when a northerly is involved.
Leysdown, north Kent
Joe Bloggs
10 January 2024 10:38:30
06z GFS op is well improved.

The longer lasting and stronger the initial Arctic feed, the better. 

More opportunities for convective snow, troughs etc - and better chances for snow once the lows do eventually barrel in. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Whiteout
10 January 2024 10:40:43

06z GFS op is well improved.

The longer lasting and stronger the initial Arctic feed, the better. 

More opportunities for convective snow, troughs etc - and better chances for snow once the lows do eventually barrel in. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Could this be 'the one' that we have been waiting for Joe over the last 20 years on this Forum lol 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Whiteout
10 January 2024 10:42:30
Do I see repeated channel low's 🤣
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2024 10:43:28
The Midlands snow event goes into France . But we are in cold unstable air so probably better. You would imagine snow could turn up anywhere. Another good rub
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
10 January 2024 10:46:05
06z trying to build an easterly again later on. That’s 3 runs on the go now. 
CField
10 January 2024 10:47:07

The Midlands snow event goes into France . But we are in cold unstable air so probably better. You would imagine snow could turn up anywhere. Another good rub
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

be some cold nights for sure...last night got down to -4C near Tunbridge Wells....this slow burner is going to ignite.....ensembles bit of a concern though 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Matty H
10 January 2024 10:47:41

Could this be 'the one' that we have been waiting for Joe over the last 20 years on this Forum lol 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



2010?
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2024 10:47:55
This run keeps on coming back to Icelandic wedges now . 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
10 January 2024 10:49:12

Could this be 'the one' that we have been waiting for Joe over the last 20 years on this Forum lol 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



TBH I would be over the moon with a repeat of December 2000, December 2001, or December 2009. I doubt we’ll get close to surpassing January 2010 (in my location anyway).

You are an interesting location given what might be coming next week. 😊😊😊

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Whiteout
10 January 2024 10:50:04

2010?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Not really for me Matty, one good fall that was it....(was in Oxfordshire then though, not sure what it was like down here then)..
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Hippydave
10 January 2024 10:50:12

A much better run IMBY! One thing that does seem certain is that much of Scotland is going to be hammered with snow early next week... I can imagine there'll be some fantastic pictures doing the rounds on the news (and on here, hopefully).

In other news, I see that sea ice is at its highest level for 20 years - every little helps, as Tesco says, especially when a northerly is involved.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Yep we nearly get an all snow event from that LP at T228, it just fails and looks to turn back to rain at the end though. 

There's also a fun little feature/LP that runs into Scotland that's largely all cold air at a similar time as the LP wanders over the far south. The pattern then gets quite slack under LP which screams cold nights over any snow cover.

Clearly all very much just for amusement value as all this run really shows is the larger pattern is consistent, the detail is not. 

As an aside and from many a disappointment over the years this pattern often seems to end up in one of a couple of  scenarios:-

1) LP is forecast to run somewhere to the south of the UK. It does and I end up with mostly rain, north of the M4 gets buried. The next LP runs further north, I get warmer rain, northern England gets buried. 
2)LP is forecast to run somewhere to the south of the UK and bring snow to some parts of the UK but mostly rain for me, it corrects south and any precip stays mostly in the channel, maybe grazing the far SW. The next LP corrects further north rather annoyingly and I get all rain and northern England gets buried.

Scotland usually stays cold either way. 

It's a lot more entertaining though than mild and wet for all!
 
 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

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