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Whiteout
11 January 2024 10:16:47
Looks to be a better run for keeping in the cold, the midweek LP now only scraping the south coast on this run..

Bournemouth beach the sweet spot, yesterday morning was Birmingham 😂

Meanwhile Scotland is getting plastered....
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 10:20:50

Gone on the latest GFS as well!

Oh well at least the cold hangs on a bit longer

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Indeed it misses again to the south. More blocking to our west this run so cold should hang on longer. Can we get any snow though?
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
11 January 2024 10:23:45


Meanwhile Scotland is getting plastered....

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



Scots and their whisky, eh?

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+2
fairweather
11 January 2024 10:28:44

Having just caught up on the 0Z model runs, I'm feeling much happier than I was after yesterday's 12Z runs. UKMO and ECM (both OP and ensemble) look pretty good, with the possibility of significant snow for us in the south. The GFS OP is poor again, but as others have pointed out every much towards the mild end of the ensemble, and the ensemble overall is I think a bit improved.

Originally Posted by: jhall 


Thank you John. I feel like I am banging my head against a  wall saying time and time again that the GFS Op is all over the place for the last few days. People should WAIT for the ensembles to get a proper picture before they get downhearted every six hours! Again the 00z ensembles are better than the op. The 06z op is much better which probably means the op is in the middle of the run this time..
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 10:29:49
We'll let's hope it doesn't happen like that as the 6z GFS is pretty tedious for most. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
The Beast from the East
11 January 2024 10:34:19
Blowtorch to end the winter on latest GFS!

Without a scandi block and convective easterly there is no prospect of snow in the south especially. No sign of that in any models, so perhaps we are better off with a quick atlantic reset. At least we will have some weather to talk about
This cold snap is utterly boring
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
11 January 2024 10:35:08
I'm not seeing that Ally? It looks cold for ten days with the odd blip along the way.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
moomin75
11 January 2024 10:36:58

Blowtorch to end the winter on latest GFS!

Without a scandi block and convective easterly there is no prospect of snow in the south especially. No sign of that in any models, so perhaps we are better off with a quick atlantic reset. At least we will have some weather to talk about
This cold snap is utterly boring
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Agree. I have barely bothered to comment on the models this winter, as I've been bitten too many times and have come to the conclusion that what will be, will be.
Clearly its looking almost certainly that we have a brief cold and dry spell before normal service resumes.
I feel the BBC and Met Office went too soon with prediction of significant snow next week, because its starting to look increasingly likely to miss the UK altogether. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gandalf The White
11 January 2024 10:39:53

Oh no. Not really what you wanted then.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



LOL. Good to see you maintaining your high standards….

👍
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 10:39:58

I'm not seeing that Ally? It looks cold for ten days with the odd blip along the way.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I'm disappointed the "Snow event" looks atm at least like its going into France.
But you are right looks cold out to 21st ish so hopefully snow will turn up at some point nearer the time. It certainly could be worse.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
11 January 2024 10:40:55

Blowtorch to end the winter on latest GFS!

Without a scandi block and convective easterly there is no prospect of snow in the south especially. No sign of that in any models, so perhaps we are better off with a quick atlantic reset. At least we will have some weather to talk about
This cold snap is utterly boring
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Someone has mistakenly filed GFS under ‘Science’ when it should be under ‘Fiction’ at the moment.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Steve
11 January 2024 10:40:57

It's written by some very clever Chinese people - not sure that they're supervillains though!

"Nonreciprocal entanglement in cavity magnomechanics exploiting chiral cavity-magnon coupling" 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Not that rubbish again. They are so old fashioned....
jhall
11 January 2024 10:41:13

Blowtorch to end the winter on latest GFS!

Without a scandi block and convective easterly there is no prospect of snow in the south especially. No sign of that in any models, so perhaps we are better off with a quick atlantic reset. At least we will have some weather to talk about
This cold snap is utterly boring
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Really? I'm finding it utterly fascinating.
Cranleigh, Surrey
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 10:43:30

Agree. I have barely bothered to comment on the models this winter, as I've been bitten too many times and have come to the conclusion that what will be, will be.
Clearly its looking almost certainly that we have a brief cold and dry spell before normal service resumes.
I feel the BBC and Met Office went too soon with prediction of significant snow next week, because its starting to look increasingly likely to miss the UK altogether. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



It did surprise how bullish they seemed with something a week away. The graphic that had the M4 as the most likely destination looks very wrong today sadly. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Whiteout
11 January 2024 10:44:00



I feel the BBC and Met Office went too soon with prediction of significant snow next week, because its starting to look increasingly likely to miss the UK altogether. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



They are the pro's, not us 😉
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 10:45:53

Blowtorch to end the winter on latest GFS!

Without a scandi block and convective easterly there is no prospect of snow in the south especially. No sign of that in any models, so perhaps we are better off with a quick atlantic reset. At least we will have some weather to talk about
This cold snap is utterly boring
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


A decent winter storm... or 4 wouldn't go amiss before this painfully boring season ends. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
Rob K
11 January 2024 10:46:33

Really? I'm finding it utterly fascinating.

Originally Posted by: jhall 


The model watching has been fascinating. The weather less so but at least it's sunny today!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
11 January 2024 10:50:06

They are the pro's, not us 😉

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


Indeed they are, but I rather feel they will backtrack from their bullish predictions over the coming days.
They will do it subtly, of course.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
11 January 2024 10:52:42
It’s great watching, no one knows what will happen next week at all.
Will the northerly get to the south?
Will the precipitation get further north?
Will there be widespread snow?
Will there be flooding?
Will it be above or below average?
Answers on a postcard please. Find it fascinating 
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 10:53:23
The Atlantic pattern this winter so far has about the same 'ommph' as you would typically see in early to mid autumn, or April and May. No energy at all. And this seems to be the norm now in recent winters. Price to pay I guess when you have only trace amounts of cold air left in the Arctic to (not help) fire up the north Atlantic jet stream anymore 😢
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Whiteout
11 January 2024 10:53:30

Indeed they are, but I rather feel they will backtrack from their bullish predictions over the coming days.
They will do it subtly, of course.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Well let's see what the updates says today, BTW the Met O App showing light snow for me all day on Wednesday 😉
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Brian Gaze
11 January 2024 10:56:23
This cold spell could deliver, but to me the model output has been inconsistent and never quite hitting overdrive. Perhaps it's old age and cynicsm, but I was more confident during the approach to the cold periods in 2009 and 2010.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Taylor1740
11 January 2024 10:57:12
For once I would like to see a cold and snowy spell. We seem to have had plenty of boring, cold dry spells recently here but hardly any snow. December 2022 for example it was basically sub zero for 10 days and we had no snow here. Unfortunately looks like this cold spell will be the same, after it looked like there was a chance of significant snow a couple of days ago, and given the BBC comments also. All very disappointing.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Retron
11 January 2024 10:58:59

The Atlantic pattern this winter so far has about the same 'ommph' as you would typically see in early to mid autumn, or April and May. No energy at all. And this seems to be the norm now in recent winters. Price to pay I guess when you have only trace amounts of cold air left in the Arctic to (not help) fire up the north Atlantic jet stream anymore 😢

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I can't agree with that, it's been mild, wet and windy throughout - up until last week, anyway. We had two named storms in 2022/3, and we're up to 8 already this season... it's been relentless, which is why it's so nice to have a break from it for a while.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+4
Taylor1740
11 January 2024 11:00:04

The Atlantic pattern this winter so far has about the same 'ommph' as you would typically see in early to mid autumn, or April and May. No energy at all. And this seems to be the norm now in recent winters. Price to pay I guess when you have only trace amounts of cold air left in the Arctic to (not help) fire up the north Atlantic jet stream anymore 😢

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I'm not sure that is correct given all the storms we have had? Has seemed like the complete opposite this Winter. Also a quiet Atlantic would help support cold spells not prevent them?
NW Leeds - 150m amsl

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