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fairweather
02 February 2024 11:52:06

In today's climate, yes. In the old days - not so much, you didn't need a such a depth of anomalous cold to do it. You're too young to have seen the early to mid 80s, and believe you me - you really missed out!

I'm sure the same could be said of us 80s kids by those who were around in the 60s, mind you. 😂

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I won't elaborate too much as there is a separate thread for nostalgic discussions.  (I don't think I would assess the snowiness of the 50's and 60's as being better cold event wise than the late 70's and 80's. Especially if you take out out the unbelievable anomaly of 1963 winter out of the equation. I think it is probably easier to say this century now, as being a totally different kettle of fish. Genuine blizzards, often forgotten because they were short lived, were far more common then.) 
The second half of February is starting to look promising. February the 10th looks like a key date when it may or may not start to happen. It has a look of longevity about it compared to the January cold snap.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
02 February 2024 11:56:10

Here we go...

Here's the snow depth using the default GFS parameter:

UserPostedImage


Here's the snow depth for the same time after setting snow density to be 400 kg/m2.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Missing the S.E. corner completely, the area that was amongst the worst hit by memorable snow events of the sixties, to nineties.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Chunky Pea
02 February 2024 12:02:55

I won't elaborate too much as there is a separate thread for nostalgic discussions.  (I don't think I would assess the snowiness of the 50's and 60's as being better cold event wise than the late 70's and 80's. Especially if you take out out the unbelievable anomaly of 1963 winter out of the equation. I think it is probably easier to say this century now, as being a totally different kettle of fish. Genuine blizzards, often forgotten because they were short lived, were far more common then.) 
The second half of February is starting to look promising. February the 10th looks like a key date when it may or may not start to happen. It has a look of longevity about it compared to the January cold snap.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



The cold period of the 50s to late 80s seem to curiously coincide with peak nuclear bomb testing around the world. 

 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
ballamar
02 February 2024 12:19:48
Personally hope the trend continues for the winter where everything is further south for next week! Seriously somewhere could get plastered next week hopefully 
ballamar
02 February 2024 12:36:13
Would be great to see the WOI back where members could vote once a day!
02 February 2024 12:53:26

The cold period of the 50s to late 80s seem to curiously coincide with peak nuclear bomb testing around the world. 

 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



possibly, volcanoes as well, mount st helens etc

however, recently, no matter how much Iceland blows up volcanic wise, it has no effect on UK
 
Berkshire
Essan
02 February 2024 13:01:45

The cold period of the 50s to late 80s seem to curiously coincide with peak nuclear bomb testing around the world. 

 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Peak industrial pollution
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Chunky Pea
02 February 2024 13:03:45

possibly, volcanoes as well, mount st helens etc

however, recently, no matter how much Iceland blows up volcanic wise, it has no effect on UK
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



That unpronounceable volcano in iceland that went up in early 2010 was followed by one of the coldest December's on record. I think this might be more than just mere coincidence.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
02 February 2024 13:07:58

Peak industrial pollution

Originally Posted by: Essan 



Indeed. 'cleaner' air is allowing increased solar radiation filter through. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
02 February 2024 13:35:04

That unpronounceable volcano in iceland that went up in early 2010 was followed by one of the coldest December's on record. I think this might be more than just mere coincidence.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Yes Iyelsajdaslllfafjfjfolffdff was more Ash based, were as recent ones are just lava flows and fractures
 
Berkshire
MStewart
02 February 2024 13:35:29
Wow Gfs 6Z OP made me 😆 it looks so good for cold and potential for snow IMBY

GEFS 6Z still supports a significant cooling end of next week but the op looks like an outlier for now.

I’ll settle for next week’s significant cooling for now.

 
Mark
Twickenham
12m ASL
Chunky Pea
02 February 2024 13:45:11

Iyelsajdaslllfafjfjfolffdff 
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



😂😂
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Windy Willow
02 February 2024 13:54:36

Yes Iyelsajdaslllfafjfjfolffdff was more Ash based, were as recent ones are just lava flows and fractures
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Eyafjallajokull is seared into my memory, as it totally buggered up my Birthday celebrations!
Current model output is looking interesting as we might see something a bit cooler come the middle of the month, whether that brings snow or not at least it may be cooler and more seasonal.
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
ballamar
02 February 2024 16:13:06
This GFS op run demonstrates how living in the SE you really need the cold in first! 
Ally Pally Snowman
02 February 2024 16:33:58

This GFS op run demonstrates how living in the SE you really need the cold in first! 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Prefer GEM.  🌨🌨🌨🌨🌨🌨🌨🌨🌨

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=12&time=198&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
02 February 2024 17:40:57
GFS control evolution looks better than the op
fairweather
02 February 2024 17:52:33

Peak industrial pollution

Originally Posted by: Essan 


True, in Northern towns and London especially. In the fifties and early sixties we could leave SE Essex in the morning in clear sunshine and by the time we got to East London the smog kicked in and remained till we reached our Cousins in Putney. A yellow type of dense fog for those too young to remember it.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
02 February 2024 17:55:27

Peak industrial pollution

Originally Posted by: Essan 



I speculated years ago that the decrease in industrial pollution may have contributed to the decline of high pressure over Scandinavia during the winter months. Perhaps coincidence, but the deindustrialisation in western and particularly eastern Europe (after the fall of the wall) seemed to also mark the end of the mid winter Scandi high as we knew it.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
02 February 2024 18:31:54
Dear oh dear, met update gone from unsettled cold , snow to average temps and a uk high again!!
Berkshire
doctormog
02 February 2024 18:44:16

Dear oh dear, met update gone from unsettled cold , snow to average temps and a uk high again!!

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



As the above does not actually mention the other parts of the Met Office forecasts, they also include:

“Through the weekend a change toward a north or north-westerly wind will bring cold conditions spreading across the UK with wintry showers across coasts but clearer inland as rain clears southeast” and in the longer term “This would increase the likelihood of less mild, or colder conditions developing more widely and increase chance of snow, especially in the north and east.”

Having said that this is the model output thread and not the media thread so I will return to topic and state that the pattern of the last day or two is still the same: colder conditions for northern parts from midweek and then possibly more widely beyond then and rather unsettled in the medium term. Next Friday is looking quiet a marked contrast to today’s high of 15°C here.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png 

Beyond that, next weekend looks chilly more generally. This is from the 12z ECM:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_192_1.png
UserPostedImage 


 
Gandalf The White
02 February 2024 19:18:19

Dear oh dear, met update gone from unsettled cold , snow to average temps and a uk high again!!

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Out of interest, why do you always put your comments on the Met Office forecasts in here when they should be in the Media thread?

🙂
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


02 February 2024 19:26:12

Out of interest, why do you always put your comments on the Met Office forecasts in here when they should be in the Media thread?

🙂

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



It's based on model runs right?
 
Berkshire
Chunky Pea
02 February 2024 19:28:46

I speculated years ago that the decrease in industrial pollution may have contributed to the decline of high pressure over Scandinavia during the winter months. Perhaps coincidence, but the deindustrialisation in western and particularly eastern Europe (after the fall of the wall) seemed to also mark the end of the mid winter Scandi high as we knew it.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



At the risk of steering off topic, but cleaner may mean warmer.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cleaning-up-air-pollution-may-strengthen-global-warming/ 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
doctormog
02 February 2024 19:31:33

It's based on model runs right?
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



As are all forecasts, which is why there is a separate Media thread. This one is for discussion of the output rather than discussing others’ interpretation of the output as far as I am aware.
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