theweatheroutlook

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doctormog
03 February 2024 15:48:15
The last few GFS op runs have been very consistent in showing a spell of snow here on Monday morning (including the 12z run). It will be interesting to see if it comes to fruition. 

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Dub Version
03 February 2024 15:49:34
Poor extended update from met, but backing up my thoughts. Mentions of East winds gone, average temps and frosts,and dry.

Looks like a rinse repeat of last spell where NW gets all the action.
Berkshire
doctormog
03 February 2024 15:50:48

Poor extended update from met, but backing up my thoughts. Mentions of East winds gone, average temps and frosts,and dry.

Looks like a rinse repeat of last spell where NW gets all the action.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


Wrong thread.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
Gandalf The White
03 February 2024 16:35:32

Poor extended update from met, but backing up my thoughts. Mentions of East winds gone, average temps and frosts,and dry.

Looks like a rinse repeat of last spell where NW gets all the action.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Not only are you still using the wrong thread but you’ve also completely misrepresented the extended outlook. There is no mention of ‘average temperatures’ and a clear mention of winds from the north or north west and the words ‘wintry showers’.

🙄
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
ballamar
03 February 2024 18:25:38

Poor extended update from met, but backing up my thoughts. Mentions of East winds gone, average temps and frosts,and dry.

Looks like a rinse repeat of last spell where NW gets all the action.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



tell me based on the model output what are your thoughts referencing the charts where needed
+1
Quantum
03 February 2024 18:28:18
I do not understand the gloom, there is huge potential from the charts with a snowstorm possible next Thursday for some at the least and perhaps much more than that.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
03 February 2024 18:29:39

The last few GFS op runs have been very consistent in showing a spell of snow here on Monday morning (including the 12z run). It will be interesting to see if it comes to fruition. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


You also get another roll on Tuesday afternoon as the occluded front moves back south.
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Quantum
03 February 2024 18:41:47
If we were to take the ECM literally (obviously you shouldn't, but keep in mind upgrades are also possible) there is something for everyone here.

Snow for the midlands northwards Wednesday night into Thursday. Turning to rain further south but very large amounts of snow piling up in the far north of England and southern Scotland. Heavy snow showers further north. By the time the front clears snow showers have become widespread and penetrating well inland by Saturday for most parts of England.

Yes this might be a shortlived cold spell; but the offerings here are very good.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Quantum
03 February 2024 18:52:27
ECM12Z is truly excellent. Everywhere top and tail (except possibly cornwall) will get snow from this run.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 February 2024 19:04:09

ECM12Z is truly excellent. Everywhere top and tail (except possibly cornwall) will get snow from this run.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Yep it's a lovely run. Most have a decent covering by the end.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20240213-1200z.html#tab-dates-date 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
03 February 2024 21:26:52

tell me based on the model output what are your thoughts referencing the charts where needed

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Since the sun set some hours ago I thought you might have got some sort of answer by now…. 😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


HighPressureGloom
03 February 2024 21:53:31

Yep it's a lovely run. Most have a decent covering by the end.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20240213-1200z.html#tab-dates-date 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Just the 16 inches of snow for the north Pennines on that one 🤣 
ballamar
03 February 2024 21:59:46

Since the sun set some hours ago I thought you might have got some sort of answer by now…. 😉

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



lucky not holding breath 😂
fairweather
03 February 2024 22:31:29
18z op not great. Back to the chopping and changing.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Saint Snow
03 February 2024 22:33:37

I do not understand the gloom, there is huge potential from the charts with a snowstorm possible next Thursday for some at the least and perhaps much more than that.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Certain people with agendas.

It's the bane of TWO's MO thread.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
03 February 2024 22:37:22

Yep it's a lovely run. Most have a decent covering by the end.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20240213-1200z.html#tab-dates-date 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Looks rather marginal to me, especially in the west - hence the concentrations of snow in high-altitude areas with many low-lying areas struggling to get a covering.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
03 February 2024 22:51:31
I'm more in the mood for spring proper and messing around in the garden. Cold charts begone!
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+2
Chunky Pea
03 February 2024 22:56:27



Yes this might be a shortlived cold spell; but the offerings here are very good.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Trend this winter seems to going from quite cool to quite warm in very distinct phases. 2nd cool spell lasted longer than the first, so it'd not surprise this upcoming spell lasted a wee bit longer than the 2nd wave.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Zubzero
03 February 2024 22:59:24

Looks rather marginal to me, especially in the west - hence the concentrations of snow in high-altitude areas with many low-lying areas struggling to get a covering.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Sadly for the majority it is looking like the same old, im hoping for a few more air frosts to see out the winter. A UK based high as shown on the 18z gfs would be nice if its a foggy or clear high, probably be better over all then the less likely easterly that would bring Snow showers to scotland and northen England and the far South east at best. Active troughs and fronts from the east bringing more widespread snow is a thing of the past I fear. . Imby I'd base the chance of a snow event at about 5% ATM. 
Gandalf The White
03 February 2024 23:17:44

18z op not great. Back to the chopping and changing.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



But it finishes in the classic pub run tradition with a huge mid-Atlantic block, Arctic high and massive northerly incoming.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
04 February 2024 00:19:16
The latest ECM ensemble run is showing another sharp slowdown in the 10hPa winds. Not yet signalling a reversal but there was nothing just 3-4 days ago.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402030000 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


BJBlake
04 February 2024 00:27:44

The latest ECM ensemble run is showing another sharp slowdown in the 10hPa winds. Not yet signalling a reversal but there was nothing just 3-4 days ago.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402030000 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



This repeated occurrence of the SSW event or at least including the nearly events, has to be unprecedented, and with it such tropospheric interference from the Straosphere?? This is probably not good for the polar ice longevity, even if it delivers ‘favourable’ model outputs for us midlatitude dwellers in search of traditionally wintry winter weather!
Might this prolong our cold outbreak as modelled??
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
UncleAlbert
04 February 2024 00:54:10

But it finishes in the classic pub run tradition with a huge mid-Atlantic block, Arctic high and massive northerly incoming.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



And the synoptics at the end of the pubstamps are almost unanimously fascinating viewing  with respect to the increased prospect of cold air being brought southwards from the Arctic in the last third of the month.  A recurring theme over recent runs.  Not yet making a marked impact on the 850s, and of course, not a given that the UK will get a hit from any cold outbreaks if lf this trend continues.
fairweather
04 February 2024 02:03:47
GFS 18z ensembles now making this a short sharp flop for the South again with a bit of a higher risk of a short lived snow event and three days of cold. No doubt it will be March when we will be told the SSW will take effect.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
04 February 2024 06:52:57
After a very underwhelming GFS and GEM.  ECM is a absolute snowfest for the Midlands and Wales.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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