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Chunky Pea
07 February 2024 22:54:12

There is still a quarter of winter left, so it might be premature to go predicting we won’t see cold weather, especially since it can still be notably cold well into March.  The latest forecast for the stratosphere suggests there could be more fun and games yet.

Having said that I’m quite happy to have lower heating costs.

🙂

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


You can almost guarantee that the end of Feb, early March will at least not be overly mild, as this is a period when mT air masses are least likely to have an influence in this part of the world. A singularity, if you like. It is also one of the more frost prone periods of the greater winter period. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Downpour
07 February 2024 23:05:24

There is still a quarter of winter left, so it might be premature to go predicting we won’t see cold weather, especially since it can still be notably cold well into March.  The latest forecast for the stratosphere suggests there could be more fun and games yet.

Having said that I’m quite happy to have lower heating costs.

🙂

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



”more fun and games” rather suggests there has been some already! 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+2
Matty H
07 February 2024 23:21:38

You can almost guarantee that the end of Feb, early March will at least not be overly mild, as this is a period when mT air masses are least likely to have an influence in this part of the world. A singularity, if you like. It is also one of the more frost prone periods of the greater winter period. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Theres every chance it will be overly mild. The same as this winter has been, and as is an increasing theme in winter

Not nailed on of course, not by a long way, but you wouldn’t bet against it

Tick, Tock, Tick……
Yate, Nr Bristol
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+4
fairweather
07 February 2024 23:24:40
In reality it is nailed on that there is not going to be a severe cold spell in England in the next 7 days. That means 85% of the winter will be over. I think if in November the English coldies were asked would you classify it as a decent winter if you had no snow or severe frosts with two weeks to go then I doubt they would. I know the chances are extremely rare of a decent severe winter but I can't see the point of moving the goalposts and pretending that it still might end up as such. It isn't and it won't be now. As they say  - two swallows don't make a summer and two cm of snow or two weeks below average won't make a winter. I would like to be proven wrong come March but I doubt I will be.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Chunky Pea
07 February 2024 23:45:41

Theres every chance it will be overly mild. The same as this winter has been, and as is an increasing theme in winter

Not nailed on of course, not by a long way, but you wouldn’t bet against it

Tick, Tock, Tick……

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Roll on May. My fave month of the year. Gently warm days and cool, zesty nights. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
tallyho_83
08 February 2024 00:26:03
The 18z OP RUN SHOWS HLB in FI but not falling for it and not taking much notice of this potential SSW and split of PV despite the potential of a reverse of zonal winds....@10hpa! We have seen this before and been let down too many times!

We have been let down yet again! - past 6 days southern England esp Devon has seen daytime temperatures of 12 or 13c and night time temperatures between 9 and +13c. It's been very mild. We were due to have a colder snap from tomorrow but instead we are now (south ) are looking at temperatures of +10c - so a milder day again and as for next week, well instead of that easterly or north easterly we will have more of the same just mild and wet.

Many models such as EC 42 day, JMA, GFS, BCC, DMD, CFSv2, Met Office and more have all forecasted a colder and blocked February but this February has been anything but cold and blocked and there is no sign of this happening in the next 2 weeks. The CET is over +5c above the seasonal average and it's the 2nd week of February now.

Even if colder charts did appear in the model run- why should anyone bother reading them when they have been very inaccurate or unreliable at best? What is the point of pinning hopes on another SSW when the last one failed to deliver any cold despite the split, despite the reversal, despite the fact we are in an easterly QBO in combination with an El Nino winter...?! Despite the rapid increase or snow cover over Siberia and Scandinavia since early November?

This has been the most disappointing winter I can remember for cold and snowy weather fans. We have had set backs before but this tops it all - furthermore we can have snow/cold without a SSW anyway. On Thursday 30th November 2023 gave us 5hrs of heavy wet snow in the morning before it became sleety in Exeter and a high of +2.5c. This happened with a positive NAO/AO, cold stratosphere and without an SSW and in an Autumn month.

My guess has now been narrowed down further and I feel that it's either 1. The very warm September or 2. Positive IOD - Or maybe combination of them both because warm and dry September's very rarely precede cold winters. Last September 2023 it was exceptionally warm especially at the start with temperatures well into the upper 20's and low 20's in some southern parts. That's just erratic! The last colder than average September I think I can remember was in 2017 and the winter of 2017/18 was slightly colder than average - mostly down to the BFTE but there were cold spells after Xmas 2017. There was also colder snaps in January 2018 and February until BFTE started 3rd week of February 2018.  

PS - this should be in the moan thread but do you see my point? - Anyway, no doubt we will get the snow and cold in March/April 2023 and in the year before last in April 2022 - as always!! 🙄


 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


+1
BJBlake
08 February 2024 06:34:21

The 18z OP RUN SHOWS HLB in FI but not falling for it and not taking much notice of this potential SSW and split of PV despite the potential of a reverse of zonal winds....@10hpa! We have seen this before and been let down too many times!

We have been let down yet again! - past 6 days southern England esp Devon has seen daytime temperatures of 12 or 13c and night time temperatures between 9 and +13c. It's been very mild. We were due to have a colder snap from tomorrow but instead we are now (south ) are looking at temperatures of +10c - so a milder day again and as for next week, well instead of that easterly or north easterly we will have more of the same just mild and wet.

Many models such as EC 42 day, JMA, GFS, BCC, DMD, CFSv2, Met Office and more have all forecasted a colder and blocked February but this February has been anything but cold and blocked and there is no sign of this happening in the next 2 weeks. The CET is over +5c above the seasonal average and it's the 2nd week of February now.



This has been the most disappointing winter I can remember for cold and snowy weather fans.
 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I and most of us feel your pain:  It has been disappointing for cold weather fans. However, I am less surprised, despite the good signs early doors, as the key is the strength of the El Niño. Joe D’Aleo  did a post on his Dr Dewpoint blog - aligning cold weather (negative NAO) outbreaks with ENSO cycles. All major UK cold episodes were Associated with weak El Niño or La Nada years. La Niña favoured short 1-3 day cold snaps. The correlation was evidentially consistent. However, he was a climate change denier, so he cant have been all there!! Having said that - the facts he was showing for cold weather correlations were sound.

Strong El Niño years showed almost no cold outbreaks - except rare instances very late in the season, i.e. late March/ April - when meaningful snow is very unlikely and cant last through the the day due to solar radiation.

With Climate Change - this strong El Niño has dominated all other factors. The models have struggled to cope with this, excepting the GFS has been better at predicting Pete Tong’s arrival earlier. It was sobering to learn that the heating from man-made climate change is so outpacing background factors for cooling - such as sun-spot variances - such that any minor effect from a grand solar minimum, (that caused the little ice age of Dickensian winter fame), that it’s effects would be dwarfed (0.3 degrees of cooling) against currently 1.5 degrees of warming, and rising to 2.6 within 20 -30 years. We need a TWO trip to Finland!!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
nsrobins
08 February 2024 07:27:11
A mark of where we are now - CFS for 300hrs is being quoted on NWx.
I suppose whilst options still remain in the suites it’s not a lost cause, but it’s almost over for another year (and I know it’s snowing in Buxton, but that’s not really headline news).
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
08 February 2024 08:01:35

A mark of where we are now - CFS for 300hrs is being quoted on NWx.
I suppose whilst options still remain in the suites it’s not a lost cause, but it’s almost over for another year (and I know it’s snowing in Buxton, but that’s not really headline news).

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



nooo that’s definitely a nail in the coffin! GFS does look bleak! But time for things to still change although options are running out. ECM could turn out ok
David M Porter
08 February 2024 08:14:56
TBH I'm not really sure why some are putting so much faith in GFS. I know it is considered  to be one of the 'big three' models, but in my experience that model has sometimes led us up the garden path big time in the past; February 2007 still sticks in my mind. Granted, it hasn't performed badly this winter over the piece, but neither have any of the others from what I can remember.

One thing I learned pretty quickly about GFS when I first began following the model output almost 20 years ago was not to trust it on its own and only to do so when it has pretty solid support from the other models. I guess it is something to do with the fact it turns out four op runs a day, but for me there are sometimes still too many big swings from one run to the next to have proper confidence it is for a week or more ahead.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
08 February 2024 08:21:07

TBH I'm not really sure why some are putting so much faith in GFS. I know it is considered  to be one of the 'big three' models, but in my experience that model has sometimes led us up the garden path big time in the past; February 2007 still sticks in my mind. Granted, it hasn't performed badly this winter over the piece, but neither have any of the others from what I can remember.

One thing I learned pretty quickly about GFS when I first began following the model output almost 20 years ago was not to trust it on its own and only to do so when it has pretty solid support from the other models. I guess it is something to do with the fact it turns out four op runs a day, but for me there are sometimes still too many big swings from one run to the next to have proper confidence it is for a week or more ahead.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



All the models are rubbish for cold though not just GFS. Also the vast majority of each models ensembles don't get cold for the UK in the next two weeks . That takes us to late February when down here at least we need something exceptional. Maybe the SSW will come to our rescue but with the Met Office monthly forecast saying a return of the Atlantic in early March is likely, its not looking good. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
The Dub Version
08 February 2024 08:23:43

All the models are rubbish for cold though not just GFS. Also the vast majority of each models ensembles don't get cold for the UK in the next two weeks . That takes us to late February when down here at least we need something exceptional. Maybe the SSW will come to our rescue but with the Met Office monthly forecast saying a return of the Atlantic in early March is likely, its not looking good. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



There probably will be a Scandi/ Greeny High late feb. But guess what? There will be no cold air to tap into.....

 
Berkshire
David M Porter
08 February 2024 08:27:46

All the models are rubbish for cold though not just GFS. Also the vast majority of each models ensembles don't get cold for the UK in the next two weeks . That takes us to late February when down here at least we need something exceptional. Maybe the SSW will come to our rescue but with the Met Office monthly forecast saying a return of the Atlantic in early March is likely, its not looking good. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



While I take on board what you say in general terms, early March is a very long time away in forcasting terms and trying to forecast a few weeks ahead will be even more difficult with another SSW happening or about to happen, as far as I understand. We still can't be 100% sure about next week right now, let alone a month ahead.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
08 February 2024 08:36:53

While I take on board what you say in general terms, early March is a very long time away in forcasting terms and trying to forecast a few weeks ahead will be even more difficult with another SSW happening or about to happen, as far as I understand. We still at the moment can't be 100% sure about next week right now, let alone a month ahead.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



We can only hope the SSW is causing issues with model accuracy atm. Im not convinced though looks like winter is going out with a whimper.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 February 2024 08:43:02
WX charts temps not showing mild air invading Eurrope as they did yesterday. Week 1 cold from N Scotland across the Baltic and into Russia, v cold in the N of this area. In week 2 the v cold disappears, elsewhere milder for Britain and cooler for Ukraine. Heavy pptn for Britain France and Spain in week 1, for Britain and the Baltic in week 2 (yesterday late WX showed Britain as dry). Some pptn in E Med week 1 moving to Turkey week 2.

GFS Op - current LP first moving S to Cornwall 975 mb Sat 10th then N 985 mb Hebrides Mon 12th then slowly filling but with  trough staying over Britain until Wed 14th. HP 1050mb then appears in S Russia (yesterday it was over Scandi) which with LP on Atlantic gives W Europe a S-ly flow but LP is close enough  to cause troughs moving N in the flow to affect Britain. HP revives closer, briefly 1025mb Belgium Fri 23rd but menaced by approach of dartboard LP 945mb C  Atlantic.

ECM - the initial trough fills more quickly, replaced by HP Tue 13th, and the Atlantic is then less active. Thus the HP over Russia is the cominant feature with lighter  winds and dry weather through to Sun 18th by which time a ridge to iceland has developed.

GEFS - For most of Britain mild at first, near norm around 13th, then mostly on the mild side through to 23rd (op rather warm but not so control) Rain heavy at first but persisting on and off, more so than yesterday. Exceptions: Scotland starts cool; rain always more persistent in the W
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Matty H
08 February 2024 08:43:03

All the models are rubbish for cold though not just GFS. Also the vast majority of each models ensembles don't get cold for the UK in the next two weeks . That takes us to late February when down here at least we need something exceptional. Maybe the SSW will come to our rescue but with the Met Office monthly forecast saying a return of the Atlantic in early March is likely, its not looking good. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Well their Feb forecast is looking like a complete fail, so I wouldn’t take much notice of any forecast beyond 5 days

Edit: their forecast until the last day or so where it now reflects what the models have been showing for a while 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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+2
David M Porter
08 February 2024 09:00:13

We can only hope the SSW is causing issues with model accuracy atm. Im not convinced though looks like winter is going out with a whimper.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I can't say for sure, but personally I wouldn't be at all surprised if that is the case, APS. I believe from what I've read in the past that SSWs are notorious for causing problems for the models. Mid-Feb 2018 springs to my mind, for instance.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+2
DPower
08 February 2024 09:55:48
This mornings strat run not as good as the 12z yesterday but with a lead time of plus t300 hours you can expect a few variations as we count down to t0. The control and mean still look very good though. IF yesterdays 12z run is the way forward I would expect to see a very cold (perhaps severe) last third of February going into March. I think we would be looking at an almost immediate QTR ( quick trop response) similar to early February 2009 and early January 1985 in that respect.
Hoping to see better consistency from the op runs over the next few days with the prospect of another 2018 re-run or something similar.
Fingers crossed.
ballamar
08 February 2024 10:02:01
Saint Snow
08 February 2024 10:23:17
That's me done for the winter. Another dismal bust.

 

Martin
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nsrobins
08 February 2024 10:26:45

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=108&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

nice chart if only the 850’s were colder !

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Roll it on and prepare for disappointment. The latest GFS chart at 180hrs is probably as bad as it gets if you're after a cold spell. Gentle SW flow from the sub-tropics and all of the UK above 0deg at 850.
What we need is one of those 'where did that Scandy high come from' moments and as others have alluded to that might come as a result of the projected SWW that could occur in a few weeks time (marginal, possibly not a split), with the response sometime in early April 😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
The Dub Version
08 February 2024 11:06:56

That's me done for the winter. Another dismal bust.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



im almost done, will call it a day once the crappy front clears in case something brewing.
 
Berkshire
ballamar
08 February 2024 12:43:26
The GFS control offers up some hope! But it’s definitely looking a bit bleak for sustained cold esp in the south. 
White Meadows
08 February 2024 13:35:49
The mid Feb easterly/ northeasterly/ widespread cold signalled by Met office for weeks on end looks like taking its final pull on the flush now. 

Today’s brief snow to rain affair localised areas in Leeds/ Welsh hills will come as a huge disappointment to many coldies in the rest of the north. 

Looking forward to high pressure becoming established once again as it seems blue skies are the only half interesting commodity this winter. 
Brian Gaze
08 February 2024 14:08:59
If the ensembles keep following this path I suspect we could soon be looking at further adjustments to the extended range forecasts. March and April may or may not bring notable cold spells. However, what is looking likely is that the meteorological winter 2023-24 will be notably mild.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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