theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2024 07:14:28
WX temp chart continues as before. Week 1 cool for NW Europe and especially below norm for Britain and France while W Russia has the heat. Moderate warmth moves north in week 2, reaching Scotland, though the Atlantic further north is still cool. Meanwhile really hot for Black Sea and Aegean. Rain quite general across Europe in week 1, except the Med; much drier for Britain in week 2 with the rain concentrated in C & SE Europe.

GFS Op - cool N-lies continue to Monday, then a shallow area of LP develops to the SW and deepens 1005mb Wales Wed 10th. This moves off E-wards as HP very gradually moves in from the west, finally well established 1030mb Wed 17th and persisting centred over S Scotland to Tue 23rd.

FAX charts show the LP  much deeper, 995mb while still well out in the Atlantic, but only run through to Tue 9th

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP keeps moving and is 1025mb Norway Tue 16th with a major ridge stretching back to cover Britain.

GEM - similar to GFS but from Sat 13th the SE is more affected by LP over France and the Low Countries.

GEFS - some rain at first esp near Wed 10th and then most notably in Scotland, decreasing thereafter. Temps cool until Mon 15th (one warm day Wed 10th)  then reaching norm and  steadily warmer after that in most ens members, some in N cooler. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2024 08:23:32

I still feel like this will be a "back-loaded" summer, with some serious heat to come in late July or August, as soon as pressure is allowed to drop to our north.
eg look at P7 on the 6Z GEFS. GEM could also go that way.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I think we need the summer equivalent of the winter of 1947!
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
06 July 2024 11:13:53
A beautiful summer run from the GFS 6z.  Overall on the models though still plenty of iffy runs in the ensembles not there yet.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2024 06:31:14
WX temp charts - still below norm for Britain and parts of NW Europe in week 1, warmth moving N-wards on a broad front in week 2 but not making as progress as shown yesterday, not reaching Scotland and Norway. OTOH SE Europe is due for another heat wave. Rain fairly general for Europe away from the Med in week 1; the wet area moving north to lie over Britain and Scandinavia in week 2.
GFS Op - the current N-lies die away to be replaced by shallow low pressure crossing Britain 1010mb Wed 10th (a little further N than shown yesterday) being replaced by a weak ridge of HP toppling in from the NW to be in place for Sat 13th. For the following week, three successive LPs from the Atlantic swinging troughs across Britain Mon 15th, Thu 18th and Sun 21st, definitely a downgrade from yesterday when HP was forecast centred over Britain at that time. The first two get deflected NE-wards by HP near E Germany, the third keeps going into Europe.

ECM - at this time, the 00z is available to Sat 13th and agrees with GFS. After that yesterday's 12z keeps the weekend HP in place through to Tue 16th. [sorry, can't wait for 00z to download - see below]

GEM - keeps the HP indicated by GFS from Sat 13th through to Tue 16th but then agrees on a trough from the Atlantic to follow

GEFS - rain and temps recovering to a little above norm Wed 10th; then cool for a few days before becoming drier, particularly in the S, and warmer from about Tue 16th. Despite good ens agreement, this does not match WX & GFS above. 

I'm away for this week but should be in range of free wifi so reviews will continue, perhaps at odd times.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
UncleAlbert
07 July 2024 08:42:36
Oh dear,
Looks like yesterday's optimism has been blown out of the water.
David M Porter
07 July 2024 09:11:51

Unusual fir nowadays but summers in past decades like the 60s and early 70s were frequently cool but not necessarily wet 

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


The summers of the 80s were pretty cool too in general terms, as far as I recollect. The only summers of that decade which produced sustained spells of heat were 1983, 1984 and 1989. Warm/very warm summers became more common in the 1990s and more so since the start of this century.

Out of interest, does anyone know what the last below average summer for CET was before 2015? Something tells me that it was either during the 80s or possibly in 1993 or 1998.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ozone_aurora
07 July 2024 09:22:19

The summers of the 80s were pretty cool too in general terms, as far as I recollect. The only summers of that decade which produced sustained spells of heat were 1983, 1984 and 1989. Warm/very warm summers became more common in the 1990s and more so since the start of this century.

Out of interest, does anyone know what the last below average summer for CET was before 2015? Something tells me that it was either during the 80s or possibly in 1993 or 1998.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I don't know the figures of the top of my head - I find it so hard to google these things now days (Google gives CET Central European Time!), but 2011, 2008 and 2007 had really awful, cool summers but I don't know if they were if they were below average in term of CET. 
ozone_aurora
07 July 2024 09:27:37

Oh dear,
Looks like yesterday's optimism has been blown out of the water.

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 


Yes, indeed. Yesterdays output was far, far too good to be true. My gut feelings for this summer continues - mostly cool, unsettled and wet (there may just be a very short lived heatwave, a Spanish Plume type).

I still feel that September and even October are looking good for lengthy warm, dry, sunny spells, although away from northwesternmost parts of UK.
David M Porter
07 July 2024 11:22:25

I don't know the figures of the top of my head - I find it so hard to google these things now days (Google gives CET Central European Time!), but 2011, 2008 and 2007 had really awful, cool summers but I don't know if they were if they were below average in term of CET. 

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


There was the nightmare summer of 2012 as well. Likewise, I can't remember how cool or warm it was in the grand scheme of things but what I'm sure virtually everyone will remember about it above all else was the almost non-stop wet weather.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
Retron
07 July 2024 11:28:00

The summers of the 80s were pretty cool too in general terms, as far as I recollect. The only summers of that decade which produced sustained spells of heat were 1983, 1984 and 1989. Warm/very warm summers became more common in the 1990s and more so since the start of this century.

Out of interest, does anyone know what the last below average summer for CET was before 2015? Something tells me that it was either during the 80s or possibly in 1993 or 1998.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Below average for summer as a whole? That (for 91-20 values) would be 2014, and before then all of 2007-2012. For 61-90 values it would be 2011 and 2012. 2011 was the last time all three months were below the 91-20 norms for each month.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
johncs2016
07 July 2024 11:42:35

Below average for summer as a whole? That (for 91-20 values) would be 2014, and before then all of 2007-2012. For 61-90 values it would be 2011 and 2012. 2011 was the last time all three months were below the 91-20 norms for each month.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I'm surprised by that as I always thought that 2014 was quite a decent summer here.

Clearly, actual data (unlike far too many politicians) never lies though, and it can be very surprising what can be deduced from that.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+1
ozone_aurora
07 July 2024 11:47:13

There was the nightmare summer of 2012 as well. Likewise, I can't remember how cool or warm it was in the grand scheme of things but what I'm sure virtually everyone will remember about it above all else was the almost non-stop wet weather.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes, indeed, summer 2012 was another terrible one in general. 

For Lowestoft, the easternmost town of UK where I was living, June and July were pretty poor overall but July had just one week of very warm, dry sunny spell (at the time when my brother and family came to stay in Southwold and so had a lovely time). August had a good deal of warm, dry, sunny weather in early and middle part of the month but was offset by cool, very unsettled, showery/thundery late month. 

For the rest of the country, it was certainly an awful summer. Quite a few complained about it on TWO.

Summer 2011 had no significant warm, dry, sunny spell in Lowestoft, as far as I can remember. Had to wait till late September/early October for a notable heatwave (my late Mum did not like heatwaves!)

ozone_aurora
07 July 2024 11:53:58

I'm surprised by that as I always thought that 2014 was quite a decent summer here.

Clearly, actual data (unlike far too many politicians) never lies though, and it can be very surprising what can be deduced from that.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


It was a decent summer for June and July for Lowestoft. August started warm and humid, then it became very cool and unsettled. The ex-hurricane Bertha was a major game changer, changing the jet stream and bringing quite autumnal conditions for the rest of the month.

Warm, dry, sunny conditions did return though and dominated September.
Ally Pally Snowman
07 July 2024 12:35:59
Yep poor Ops today but AAM is due to rise soon and this is what the Pros look for if you want a pattern change. So maybe the final third of July might come good?
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
07 July 2024 13:00:09

I'm surprised by that as I always thought that 2014 was quite a decent summer here.

[color=var(--bs-secondary-color)][font=system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"]johncs2016;1588719[/font][/color]


It was here in Ireland too, very warm, humid summer but an extraordinary amount of high quality thunderstorms to compensate. My record rain rate of 281mm/h from that summer still holds to this day. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Taylor1740
07 July 2024 13:06:35
Looks like high pressure is wanting to build more to the North of us now allowing low pressure to undercut and keeping much of the remainder of July cool and unsettled. Over to you August...
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Rob K
07 July 2024 13:57:17
GFS 6Z op run is very much at the bottom of the pack but the output is generally less good today than yesterday. Could easily swing back the other way though. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
07 July 2024 16:40:58

I'm surprised by that as I always thought that 2014 was quite a decent summer here.

Clearly, actual data (unlike far too many politicians) never lies though, and it can be very surprising what can be deduced from that.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


It was a decent summer here too, John. It was actually very hot here for a few days during the last week of the month after the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow got underway on the 23rd.

As mentioned above, the weather was somewhat poorer during August thanks to ex-Hurricane Bertha at the start of the month which put us into a cooler and more unsettled pattern until late in the month and then the September was pretty decent. For me, it was one of the three best summers of the last decade, along with 2013 and 2018.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
bledur
07 July 2024 18:06:32
What a difference a day makes. Yesterday BBC week ahead was pretty confident about a spell of High Pressure at the end of the week.
 Today , very uncertain with Low Pressure looking more dominant.
Matty H
07 July 2024 19:59:30

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday BBC week ahead was pretty confident about a spell of High Pressure at the end of the week.
 Today , very uncertain with Low Pressure looking more dominant.

Originally Posted by: bledur 


Yep, annoying and typical. Now I know how the oddities that get excited about a frost that doesn’t happen, feel
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2024 06:52:44
WX temps a little more optimistic than yesterday, with warmth gradually moving north across NW Europe. But even by the end of week 2 England is only a small amount above norm, and the N Atlantic (Scotland and Norwegian coast) still quite cold. For really hot weather, go to SE Europe. Rain in week 1 fairly general for Europe N of the Mediterranean, the bulk of this moving east to surround the Baltic in week 2 but a patch hanging back to affect W Britain.

GFS Op - shallow LP drifting across Britain from SW to NE this week, bringing some warmer air with it, transient HP for the weekend followed by a repeat performance next week, and then again the week after though the LP Wed 24th is further west and may bring up a plume from the south.

ECM - starts like GFS, but (like GEM) the weekend HP is mainly for the N with LP 1005mb hanging around in the southern N Sea. Then in the following week another shallow LP does move in from the SW but fills quickly and pressure is rising generally Wed 17th (unlike both GFS and GEM)

GEM - some resemblance to GFS, but next weekend's HP is mainly for Scotland with continental LP affecting the SE; the the 'repeat performance' involves a deeper depression and further north 995mb Hebrides Wed 17th

GEFS -  above norm briefly midweek, then cooler, back to norm around Mon 15th and the majority of ens members 2-4C above norm (but staying near norm in the N) by Mon 22nd. Rain at intervals for this week, better chances of drier later esp in S & E but staying damp in the NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2024 06:44:20
No other replies in this thread since yesterday - never a good sign for 'interesting' weather ... but here goes:

WX temp charts - week 1 still on the cool side for Britain and NW Europe but warmth spreading north in week 2, somewhat more so than shown yesterday with even N Scotland getting back to norm. The North Atlantic still cold from Iceland to Norway, uncomfortably close. Roasting hot around the Black Sea. Rain generally N of the Alps in week 1, this wet area drifting N into Scandinavia in week 2 but becoming dry from Biscay up into S England. Hint of thunderstorms for E Spain.

GFS Op - current LP drifting NE-wards and at least for the weekend being replaced by HP over Scotland though for the SE, LP still uncomfortably close over Holland. New shallow LP then quite quickly  crosses England from the SW Mon 14th but  then for the week through to Fri 19th Britain is under a broader area of HP. This gets pushed S-wards by LP moving W across Shetland but soon resumes strongly for the following week (to Thu 25th).

ECM- like GFS up to Tue 16th but the 'shallow LP' heads for NE Scotland and the 'broader area of HP' gets stuck over France, later moving towards Germany, a hint of a plume by Thu 18th, and LP out to the west rather than near Shetland

GEM - compared to GFS, makes more of the LP over Holland and also of the LP on Mon 14th which is still present as a 1005mb depression over England on Wed 16th, HP from the SW then starts to build from Fri 19th and there is no sign of LP developing near Shetland.

GEFS - on the cool side to Mon 14th, back to norm thereafter with a tendency for the ens members to show warmer from Mon 21st. Rain currently, for the S also likely around Sun 13th with bits and pieces thereafter while Britain from the Midlands N-wards misses out on the 13th but may instead get some around Fri 19th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2024 07:48:51
Looks like some hopes for drier weather in the second half of July, but too far in the future to place any reliance on.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
+1
cultman1
09 July 2024 19:42:11
Frankly I think unlikely but nevertheless the weather  could change but currently the jet stream is anchored well south of the British Isles  it a good omen 
Ally Pally Snowman
09 July 2024 20:00:10
There's definitely a trend for the Azores HP to push in over the UK day 7/8/9 but we have been here before a few times this Summer and it hasn't verified.  AAM is due to rise though at a similar time so maybe a bit more hope than usual. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
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