theweatheroutlook

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Saint Snow
19 July 2024 09:51:37
Yep, both ECM and GFS 0z's show an improved picture, that I'd be content with.




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
19 July 2024 12:14:42

Yep, both ECM and GFS 0z's show an improved picture, that I'd be content with.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



GFS 6z back to square one... 😖

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
19 July 2024 12:41:06

I'm not convinced we are going to see 30c this month even in the SE. Also in late July 29/30c is probably only like 5 or 6c above average for the SE and is something that would be expected almost every July so wouldn't be expecting the press to be all over it even though they of course like to hype up everything where they can!

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Oh ye of little faith. As it turns out the models have handled it relatively well. It's the usual pattern: initially they're a few degrees too low, then as the event gets closer the temperatures go up, and up, and up.

We've had three official 30s already today and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 32 or even 33 reached this afternoon somewhere in the SE.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Chunky Pea
19 July 2024 12:55:19
Pretty much was always going to happen at some stage. Heights rising, not from Europe, but the moist warm Atlantic. Humid, potentially hot and windless weather as we head into late July, at least according to the EC day 10 map. 

UserPostedImage
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
cultman1
19 July 2024 12:55:29
It is already 31 here in Fulham at 2pm although some cloud's bubbling up now .
Are there any signs from mid to late next week we may get a resurgence of the heat? It was being talked up a few days ago 
Saint Snow
19 July 2024 21:09:14
ECM gives another good run on the 12z.
GEM similar, but keeps trying to dig the energy well south in the mid-Atlantic so instead of being forced north of the UK, the lows hit the ridged high full-on and topple it.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2024 06:50:49
WX temps showing little change for Britain - passably warm in the SE, cool in Scotland. Further afield, the heat comes and goes in C/E Europe, hotspots in S Spain and the Aegean, but Norway is distinctly cold. Rain quite widely distributed across W Europe in week 1, heavier and concentrated on Britain and Scandinavia week 2. Yesterday's promise of dry weather for Britain has disappeared

GFS Op - for the coming week or so, changeable with a general W-ly influence, alternating troughs and areas of HP (the latter Wed 24th and Sun 28th). Then the Atlantic wakes up (new!) and deep & cold LP runs from the W to Clyde 975mb Thu 1st, moving away quickly but leaving a secondary to run along the Channel Sun 4th. [An untypical development and thus IMO unlikely to remain in future forecasts].

ECM - As for GEM

GEM - like GFS but the HP Sun 28th (end of download) looks as if it may persist.

GEFS - temps soon dropping to near norm and staying there with good ens agreement to end of month, then a modest warming trend in most runs. Mostly dry in the S (a few rogue members), rather wet in the SW and NW at first but fairly dry thereafter, contrasting with the Op.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Ally Pally Snowman
21 July 2024 07:00:05
It's the ancient battle between the settled ECM and the not so settled GFS.  ECM is superb again this morning looks to be setting up a significant heatwave.  GFS though never truly settles down.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2024 07:18:39
WX temps continuing the pattern of near norm/cool across NW Europe for the next fortnight, while heat stays south of the Alps. Minor variations (E Baltic warm, Urals cool in week 1) levelling off in week 2; Britain if anything cooler in week 2. Rain general across Europe  in week 1 except Spain and  Finland; concentrated in Scandinavia and the Alps week 2 but not particularly dry elsewhere.

GFS Op - changeable for the next two weeks with troughs moving across from the west, not especially deep (yesterday's suspect deep low on Thu 1st no longer features) and brief spells of HP between. There's a tendency for the troughs to stall in the N Sea. Troughs noted for Mon 22nd, Thu 25th, Tue 30th, Mon 5th.

ECM - similar to GFS, but HP more developed and the trough Tue 30th does not appear.

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM

GEFS - mean temp oscillates around the norm with op run tending to be on the cool side. Small amounts of rain in some ens members at intervals, no clear pattern (most likely for the S around Mon 29th, more generally spread for the N, heavier in the W)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Rob K
21 July 2024 08:44:16
ECM looking very warm this morning in the extended range. 

Closer to the present day it’s still very much up in the air whether I might finally have a dry race up in Yorkshire next weekend. GFS brings heavy rain across the south later on Saturday. BBC and Met forecasts have gone from mostly dry to “sunshine and showers”. Only the iPhone app looks totally optimistic. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
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  • Advanced Member
22 July 2024 07:00:31
WX charts forecasting some rearrangement of the warmth in N Europe over the next two weeks; Finland and W Russia currently warm but becoming cooler in week 2; France and Britain (the S at least) currently cool but becoming warmer. Still unreasonably hot in S Spain and SE Europe. Rain in week 1 light and patchy across Europe; in week 2 concentrated in the N Atlantic including the coasts of NW Scotland and Norway. Some for Alps and Pyrenees.

GFS Op - troughs moving across from the Atlantic this week, now , and again on Thu/Fri, followed by a long period with HP moving in from the SW and settling over France and England. Scotland is on the fringes of this with LPs moving NE-wards close to NW Scotland Wed 31st, Sat 3rd and Tue 6th bringing persistent SW-lies.

ECM - As in GFS, HP moves in at the weekend but more strongly and covering all Britain. However this model then throws in another trough crossing Britain on Wed 31st.

GEM - agrees with ECM and makes the trough on Wed 31st quite a deep feature.

GEFS - temps near norm to Fri 26th, cooler for a few days, then a little above norm in south esp SW but more variable in north (op & control in S definitely warmer matching WX but not all ens members agree). For the S, rain about Thu 25th (MetO suggesting heavier than GEFS), then dry, but intermittently in the N throughout. No great amounts anywhere.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Ally Pally Snowman
22 July 2024 07:16:33
Quite a mixed bag this morning but the GFS produces a long warm settled spell and the ECM gets 20c 850s into the South. Goes bang soon after but probably after a couple  32-35c days.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
22 July 2024 09:11:44

Quite a mixed bag this morning but the GFS produces a long warm settled spell and the ECM gets 20c 850s into the South. Goes bang soon after but probably after a couple  32-35c days.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Sound what summer supposed to be and we might be having a 2nd better half of summer to September.

Should not see any more silly cold weather from any direction as I see now 27C over Santa Claus with full wall to wall sunshine, it might be high but it show that regions over the arctic circle are not cold so UK cannot get any cold temps from now on until Autumn.

Either ECM or GFS both are good to us although long settled and dryness are more important.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 July 2024 09:13:58
Definitely some decent charts on offer this morning especially from the ECM and GFS but the Met Office long range forecast remains underwhelming and the AI models also average. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ozone_aurora
22 July 2024 10:02:59

Definitely some decent charts on offer this morning especially from the ECM and GFS but the Met Office long range forecast remains underwhelming and the AI models also average. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


My gut feeling is the the Met Office and the AI will probably be the the correct output. 😞
Ally Pally Snowman
22 July 2024 10:08:22

My gut feeling is the the Met Office and the AI will probably be the the correct output. :(

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Let's hope not but it would sum up this Summer that's for sure.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Retron
22 July 2024 10:12:02

My gut feeling is the the Met Office and the AI will probably be the the correct output. :(

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


My gut feeling, with a dose of pessimism and sod's law on top, is that we'll see 30 again within the next two weeks.

When you start getting repeated 20C 850s showing up on ECM (yesterday's 0z had it too), even if it's not well supported, it's a good sign that something's up... means there's a plume close by, for starters, and we know what they mean this time of year. Meanwhile the 0z GFS has a plume a few days later, with 16C 850s.

Bear in mind it reached 31C here - here, half a mile from the coast - with 850s of 14 or 15.

GFS incidentally has continued to be utter crap when it comes to forecast maxima, even a few days ago it had 27 as the high even when it was obvious it would be much higher. I don't know why it's performing so badly this year... at least the new MetO model is proving its worth (it ended up with 32 as the forecast max for here, and as the max ended up as 31.4 I think that was a decent call.)
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Saint Snow
22 July 2024 10:28:59
ECM 0z isn't as good as previous few runs. It builds HP over the UK - but then quickly shunts it away to the NE to sit annoyingly over the Barents/Karo Seas, once again blocking the progression of lows on a northerly and instead driving them further south.

Each of the models continue a theme of a lack of sustained settled weather.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
22 July 2024 11:03:21

My gut feeling, with a dose of pessimism and sod's law on top, is that we'll see 30 again within the next two weeks.

When you start getting repeated 20C 850s showing up on ECM (yesterday's 0z had it too), even if it's not well supported, it's a good sign that something's up... means there's a plume close by, for starters, and we know what they mean this time of year. Meanwhile the 0z GFS has a plume a few days later, with 16C 850s.

Bear in mind it reached 31C here - here, half a mile from the coast - with 850s of 14 or 15.

GFS incidentally has continued to be utter crap when it comes to forecast maxima, even a few days ago it had 27 as the high even when it was obvious it would be much higher. I don't know why it's performing so badly this year... at least the new MetO model is proving its worth (it ended up with 32 as the forecast max for here, and as the max ended up as 31.4 I think that was a decent call.)

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Agreed with your first line there so much heat from Death Valley to Arctic circle to the Med and Middle East so no way UK can avoid 30C and this recent warm spell is a starter course, I still expecting to see a first heatwave for the Midlands areas to exceed 30C at some point up to September.  28C I had here is not a heatwave just standard summery warmth.
+1
Rob K
22 July 2024 16:34:10
GEFS is toying with a short but hot plume around next Monday (as seen in the control on the 6Z, for instance) but the 12Z operational is not interested. GEM also went for it on the 0Z run. UKMO 12Z looks like heading that way too.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Zubzero
22 July 2024 21:22:18
It has been mostly settled and very warm for last 7-10 days with one hot day. The next 5 days look the same to with 23-26C forecast each day.
Been a good Summer so far imby as not been to hot. But yet another Summer with a lack of storms-they seem as rare as snow nearly these days. Im sure there used to be a lot more storms on Average in the 80s and 90s¿ Could be a Imby symptom, as they can be hit n miss but im sure there used to be a lot more "plume type" events with high based storms moving up from France overnight?
Ally Pally Snowman
23 July 2024 06:45:10
Looks like the underwhelming MetO forecast was right. At best its a NW/SE split at worst it's the GEM👎
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2024 07:00:06
WX charts continuing yesterday's trend, with warmer weather moving N-wards over NW Europe, reaching at least S Scotland in week 2, while cool/cold weather near the Urals expands to include the E Baltic and W Russia. Rain in week 1 lying in a band of the east side of the N Sea, rotating in week 2 to lie from N Scotland across Scandinavia while much of NW Europe including S England becomes very dry.

GFS Op  - troughs from the Atlantic with ridges between for the next week (trough just leaving, others for Thu 25th, Mon 29th, and Wed 31st). The last two of these troughs affect mainly the NW as pressure rises more soundly in the S and for w/b Mon 29th the pattern is for westerlies, settled weather in S England with HP over France, changeable in N Scotland as LP hangs around near Iceland. Only on Wed 7th does this give way to HP over the whole country.

ECM - similar to GFS but running a day later in the timing

GEM - similar to GFS though brings the trough on Mon 29th much further S, and then delays the approach of that for Wed 31st

GEFS - For the S, rain 25th/26th followed by a few cool days before steadily warming up (op run 5C above norm Wed 7th, the most optimistic of ens members which are however mostly above norm) and very little rain. Temp profile similar for the N though not quite as warm and less agreement in ens members, but rain frequent, not much in NE rather more in NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Saint Snow
23 July 2024 09:26:07
More of the same really, innit?

The AH ridging over much/part of the UK for a day or two before the next Atlantic low digs much further to the south than usual to bring a day or two of unsettled for some/most/all of the country, then the AH ridges... rinse and repeat.

The only change from June is that the lows are reaching a little less south and the AH is ridging a little stronger, so that the far south is less impacted by the lows.

No real heat away from the SE; planning anything more than a couple of days in advance is a total lottery.

The odd run has shown the ridge of the AH to break off and sit over the UK, or the AH to ridge well to the NE and form a more semi-stable block to divert the lows well away from the UK, but these are in the minority.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
David M Porter
23 July 2024 11:35:02

ECM 0z isn't as good as previous few runs. It builds HP over the UK - but then quickly shunts it away to the NE to sit annoyingly over the Barents/Karo Seas, once again blocking the progression of lows on a northerly and instead driving them further south.

Each of the models continue a theme of a lack of sustained settled weather.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Agreed, Saint.

The common theme of the models ever since early June has been that whenever the models have indicated a period of HP domination as they have a few times, they have very quickly renaged on that and then shown HP building in less strongly and then collapsing ahead of the next LP from the atlantic. I think someone earlier in the thread compared it to the chase for cold last winter; it sure feels like that to me.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1

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