WX charts continuing yesterday's trend, with warmer weather moving N-wards over NW Europe, reaching at least S Scotland in week 2, while cool/cold weather near the Urals expands to include the E Baltic and W Russia. Rain in week 1 lying in a band of the east side of the N Sea, rotating in week 2 to lie from N Scotland across Scandinavia while much of NW Europe including S England becomes very dry.
GFS Op - troughs from the Atlantic with ridges between for the next week (trough just leaving, others for Thu 25th, Mon 29th, and Wed 31st). The last two of these troughs affect mainly the NW as pressure rises more soundly in the S and for w/b Mon 29th the pattern is for westerlies, settled weather in S England with HP over France, changeable in N Scotland as LP hangs around near Iceland. Only on Wed 7th does this give way to HP over the whole country.
ECM - similar to GFS but running a day later in the timing
GEM - similar to GFS though brings the trough on Mon 29th much further S, and then delays the approach of that for Wed 31st
GEFS - For the S, rain 25th/26th followed by a few cool days before steadily warming up (op run 5C above norm Wed 7th, the most optimistic of ens members which are however mostly above norm) and very little rain. Temp profile similar for the N though not quite as warm and less agreement in ens members, but rain frequent, not much in NE rather more in NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl