Ecm still the best output and remains very warm in the SE and EA until next Sunday. 

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WX temps show warm weather pushing N over France in week 1 to affect most of Britain, especially the SE, and then retreating in week 2 with no more than average for N Europe and distinctly cool for Britain and Scandinavia. Continuing roastingly hot in the Aegean. Rain in week 1 in a band from Germany NE-wards, then in week 2 a mass of rain moving down from Iceland to cover Britain and areas close to the N Sea.

GFS Op - ridge of HP from the SW across Britain for the next few days, soon breaking down, first with warm LP from the S (MetO rain radar has heavy rain for the SE Wed 31st) then with cold LP from Iceland affecting NW Scotland by Sat 3rd and becoming centred over Britain 990mb N Ireland and Scottish Borders Wed 7th. The main centre moves away NE-wards but leaves a secondary moving SE-wards over Wales 995mb Sun 11th.

ECM - like GFS until Sat 3rd but then the centre of LP returns N-wards towards Iceland. A broad and rather cool trough nevertheless persists over Britain. Maybe just a little warmer and drier near the south coast.

GEM - continental plume more marked than the other two models but displaced all the same by Sat 3rd (990mb Hebrides and well-defined trough for the rest of Britain). Like ECM, the LP centre soon moves to the north, but this model then adds a marked trough approaching Ireland from the west Tue 6th.

GEFS - Pulse of warmth for the SE at maximum 6 or 7C above norm Wed 31st, much less marked further N and absent from N Scotland. Temps then drop slowly and remain near norm (mean) or a few degrees below (op & control) for the first week of August, recovering somewhat in the S at the end. Rain starting around 31st July and continuing throughout, front-loaded in the S, heavier later in the N and persisting there.

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GEFS shows the likelihood of more unsettled weather generally after next Sunday,  but unlike the Ops run, it recovers again after a few days to something a bit drier and warmer.

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Indeed the 6z GFS is basically Autumn.  Terrible run

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I'm on the verge of cancelling my holiday.

Sod's bloody law.

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Whatever you do, don't do that. If you do the models will suddenly flip and some lucky bugger who got a late cancellation gets a weeks glorious weather.....

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🤣👍

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MetO now shows another heatwave, going by their 28 for 3 days criteria for London... Heathrow now has 28/30/30 for Tuesday to Thursday.

Even here it's 27/28/28 respectively, which would give us our second (and unwelcome, to me at least) heatwave of the summer.

As ever, it looks like being very humid with it too - dewpoints of 18.5 modelled on the MetO raw, 17 on the GFS. GFS, of course, has a nasty habit of undercooking both temperatures and dewpoints...

Hopefully anyone who a) wants heat for whatever reason and b) has a UK holiday next week will have picked the SE for their travels!

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All the models go with the scenario of a low moving over the UK next Friday and sitting there (GFS has it doing so for the entire following week), just spinning its filthy ass round and round, dumping rain and dragging in cold air.

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The MetO output shows 25 and sunny intervals for next Friday here, and 24 and sunny intervals for next Saturday, which is as far out as it goes - both days warmer than average. Or, in other words, the models don't all show what you mention, at least for the SE chunk of the UK, even Reading, halfway to Wales from here, still has 25/23 respectively.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2024-08-03&forecastChoice=weather 

And for the 5 days before next Friday, warm at a minimum, very warm or hot on some of the days, loads of sun and humid with it.

(And the GFS still underestimates temperatures, woefully so. GFS forecast here for 6PM today? 19C. MetO? 23C. Reality? 24.7!)

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I was talking generally for the UK. There'll always be corners of the country that buck the majority trend.

FWIW, where I'm going to be staying, Met Office has 21c max and cloudy with 30% of rain all through the day for both Friday and Saturday.

Not exactly weather to encourage an afternoon on the beach...

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It's a bit more than just a "corner", but we'll agree to disagree on that one I guess. (Even Great Yarmouth, 90 miles north of here, has the same picture as down here in relative terms).

You don't pick the SW for warmth, btw, being a peninsula stuck out into the ocean, and it genuinely baffles me why it's so popular with sun-seekers... if that's what you're after it's a guaranteed disappointment. You pick it for its scenery and mix of rocky and sandy beaches rather than the climate!

You're far better off in the SE, which again has always been the case - Eastbourne used to trade on being the sunniest resort in the UK, and as you'll know we get the warmest conditions in general - along with the humidity too. The sea is shallower too, so heats up very quickly (SSTs are 19C off Sheppey, for example, 18C off Eastbourne, compared to as low as 14C off north Cornwall -
https://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/sst.php  )

The MetO still has 30s this morning, and I fully suspect another 31 if not 32 will be found somewhere in the London area on Wednesday.

Beyond that, GFS does what it's done through the summer, showing some heavy rain, while MetO shows nothing but the odd bit of cloud... and, as usual, GFS is a couple or more degrees below the MetO output generally. GFS has temperatures a degree either side of the mean, while MetO is resolutely above, only reaching normal by next Sunday. And that, of course, is never going to be the most accurate forecast... I mean who would take a T+180 chart as gospel? Not many, I'd wager!

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