theweatheroutlook

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ozone_aurora
29 July 2024 11:06:48

A bit of a reversion to the worst case scenario this morning.

The stinker of a low for this weekend and through next week is already forming in some unusually cold (for the time of year) air between the west coast of Greenland and NE Canada. As it starts to trundle towards us, the models show a separate, small low spawning much further south, over Nova Scotia, and as that moves eastwards, it gets caught up in the orbit of the major low. It's this secondary low that reaches much further south, creating a kind of trailing front.

Arse.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I wonder why it is abnormally cold.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
29 July 2024 11:27:55
Lovely GFS 6z basically keeps the heat all the way. Temps 29c to 25c. Latest AAM forecast wasn't as bad so the LPs going further north. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Saint Snow
29 July 2024 12:01:40

Lovely GFS 6z basically keeps the heat all the way. Temps 29c to 25c. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




A very localised assessment! 😄


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
29 July 2024 13:12:22

A very localised assessment!  😄

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Also, in that period August 4 to 7 which is notably warmer in the south east, this Ops run is at the very top end of the Ens. More runs needed before there can be any confidence
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Rob K
29 July 2024 13:25:16
It certainly looks like there is going to be an unsettled spell in early August but the extent of it is very much up for grabs. Could be no more than a brief blip in the south before HP reasserts itself. I'll be at the far end of that aforementioned SW peninsula from mid month and hoping that Azores HP noses back in.

(BTW I did just about get round in the dry on my Yorkshire MTB race on Saturday, barring a brief and rather chilly downpour on top of a 550m hill! Was glad I was doing the Saturday race and not Sunday this year as it was really rather hot yesterday)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
29 July 2024 13:33:54



(BTW I did just about get round in the dry on my Yorkshire MTB race on Saturday, barring a brief and rather chilly downpour on top of a 550m hill! Was glad I was doing the Saturday race and not Sunday this year as it was really rather hot yesterday)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



👍👍

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
picturesareme
29 July 2024 15:10:41
27C already today here.
Tomorrow 31C
Wednesday 30C
Thursday 28C
In reality temperatures will probably be a degree or two warmer like today has been so that could be 3 consecutive days of +30C for here which is impressive for the south coast. It's been a couple years since that last happened.
Chunky Pea
29 July 2024 16:26:50

I wonder why it is abnormally cold.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


The pattern Saint describes is being initiated by a large ridge being parked over western/northwestern north America. The central / eastern regions of the US could be looking at an unusually wet and cool pattern as well. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2024 07:38:14
WX temps - maintaining N Europe's position between an unusually cold Iceland (for the time of year) and extreme heat in SE Europe and S Spain. For Britain this implies a warm SE and a cool NW, perhaps becoming a little cooler overall in week 2. Rain for the N Atlantic incl NW Scotland, Scandinavia, W Russia and the Alps, diminishing amounts but in the same areas in week 2, nowhere away from the Med or Black Sea really dry for any length of time.

GFS Op - pressure dropping over Britain towards the weekend as LP 980mb sets up S of Iceland, That LP or its successors are never far from Scotland until Fri 9th; in the meantime troughs extend S-wards esp around Tue 6th though the S Coast may escape. Pressure then builds with a N -S ridge covering Britain Wed 14th though it looks mobile with more LP waiting on the Atlantic.

ECM - like GFS though the last chart for Fri 9th still has that LP well set to the W of Scotland.

GEM - like GFS but also slow to dispatch that LP, in this model it intensifies over the Faeroes Fri 9th

GEFS - temps, where they've been high, dropping back to norm by Sat 3rd, then up and down around norm to Thu 15th, highest likelihood of a cool spell around Fri 8th. Rain in small amounts on and off throughout; generally most likely around Tue 6th, and for the S Thu 1st. Heaviest in the NW where a very few runs have very large totals.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Saint Snow
30 July 2024 12:28:21
Overnight runs (and GFS 6z) suggest higher pressure clinging on for the far south through the weekend, then re-establishing it's influence quite quickly next week.

This trend continues, and I'll be happy.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
cultman1
30 July 2024 13:21:41
The Met Office medium ranger agrees with your analysis 
Rob K
30 July 2024 17:04:26
UKV 3Z has a 32C tomorrow in Dorset. Today it maxed at 31C (at least on the whole UK charts so we might squeeze a higher temp tomorrow depending on convective developments.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
icecoldstevet
30 July 2024 19:37:37
Models still have nothing higher than 21c here in Bude for the next 10 days (mostly between 17c and 19c until nearly mid August (it hasn't been any higher than 22c here for the last seven days), glad we moved from the Midlands hot spot.
Cornwall - 50 Metres Above Sea Level - 1 Mile From The Atlantic Coast
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 July 2024 07:39:42
WX temps showing little change with N Europe including Britain between a cold Iceland and a very hot Mediterranean. For the next two weeks, for Britain, cool in the north, hanging on to the warmth in the south; perhaps a little cooler overall in week 2.  In week 1, rain for N Atlantic (incl NW Britain), W Russia and the Alps; ditto in week 2 substituting Scandinavia for Russia.

GFS Op - HP over Britain slowly collapsing as LP 980mb sets up between Scotland and Iceland Sat 3rd. It hangs around in that general area for the following week to Fri 9th, perhaps positioned a little further north than yesterday and not really affecting S England except possibly Tue 6th. HP then revives from the south briefly before another LP appears off Scotland Sun 11th, this time short-lived and HP firmly in charge of the whole country by Fri 16th.

ECM - similar to GFS but models ex-hurricane Debby off Carolina on Wed 7th (not shown on GFS), running up the US coast before moving into the Atlantic and adding oomph to the LP Sat 10th.

GEM - similar to GFS but throws in a trailing trough on Fri 9th as the LP departs

GEFS - In the S, warmer pulses on 1st, 5th and 9th after which minimal agreement of ens members though mean near norm, and rain in small amounts at any time, one or two runs with thundery peaks. In the N, temp peaks and troughs are levelled out, cooler overall; dry for a few days then some rain on most days with amounts more variable in NE.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
cultman1
31 July 2024 13:15:05
The Met Office has downgraded its medium range forecast for SE although reading the latest models they seem a bit more upbeat? Any views on mid next  week once the blip earlier on  passes? 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
31 July 2024 16:02:27
After a brief period where the waters around the UK were near average, the warmer, sunnier weather recently has pushed anomalies into the mild/warm category, especially in the North Sea. Not sure what impact that will have, if any, on the model output? 
Meanwhile, interesting to see how warm the waters near Eastern Canada are relative to the average ......
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ozone_aurora
31 July 2024 16:33:45

After a brief period where the waters around the UK were near average, the warmer, sunnier weather recently has pushed anomalies into the mild/warm category, especially in the North Sea. Not sure what impact that will have, if any, on the model output? 
Meanwhile, interesting to see how warm the waters near Eastern Canada are relative to the average ......
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Yes, interesting. There are notable hot spots of the coast of Newfoundland, as you've said, and in the NW Pacific. The La Nina seems to be more noticeable now and there is some cold spots off W Africa, perhaps hindering the development of the Atlantic hurricanes.
+1
Retron
31 July 2024 16:34:41

After a brief period where the waters around the UK were near average, the warmer, sunnier weather recently has pushed anomalies into the mild/warm category, especially in the North Sea. Not sure what impact that will have, if any, on the model output? 
Meanwhile, interesting to see how warm the waters near Eastern Canada are relative to the average ......
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Yes, 20s now appearing in the Thames Estuary, and even a small area of the Bristol Channel!

As for the waters off Canada, the theory would be that it would encourage deep lows there should it persist into autumn... but whether that would mean they'd burn themselves out before making it here remains to be seen! It would also potentially extend the life of tropical storms moving into the area in the next couple of months...
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
White Meadows
31 July 2024 21:01:00
The broad pattern emerging has potential for some extreme heat from mid month, perhaps a tad earlier. If the Azores high plays ball with a northerly jet, we could be looking at an Indian summer of sorts. 
The Dub Version
31 July 2024 21:20:13
GFS Totally trashed yet again which had the last few days as cool and wet. What a shambles of a model.
Berkshire
+1
Crepuscular Ray
01 August 2024 06:15:28
Looking at the models this morning, it looks like more of the same here for the next 10 days. Unless it's a back loaded summer, I don't think we will see any heat in Edinburgh this year.
We are nearer to the cold Lows spawning to the north-west so average temperatures (18-19 C by day, 11-12 C by night). Showery rain at times from the SW with average sunshine, is my take on it.
Hopefully we will get some ridging from the SW around mid-month
I'm off to the Algarve for 3 weeks in September for my guaranteed sunshine and warmth
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2024 07:24:59
WX temps continue the general theme of a cold far north (Iceland) and a hot Mediterranean (new heat bubble in Spain) with Britain straddling the border between - if anything Britain is shown as becoming warmer than forecast yesterday, even a little hot weather in Kent (sorry, Darren!). Rain in week 1 widely across Europe except Spain, heaviest on N Atlantic and nearby coasts; in week 2 a large dry area pushing N-wards across France and England (this is new), with rain moving to Scandinavia.

GFS Op - LP S of Iceland stays in place to Thu 9th, something of a trough extending S-wards Tue 6th but in general pressure remaining fairly high over S England, more so than shown yesterday. Apart from shallow LP brushing N Scotland Sat 10th pressure then rises from SW and dominates Britain through to end of run Sat 17th; perhaps some thundery LP from the S by then. (Note the contrast with other models including other outputs from GFS itself)

ECM - starts out like GFS though pressure not as high over England. Then the LP Sat 10th deepens slightly and runs SE bringing in cooler NW-lies with HP staying out on the Atlantic. Yesterday's forecasts involving an ex-hurricane boosting N Atlantic circulation have been over-written.

GEM - similar to ECM; the LP Sat 10th not only persists but becomes a large area over most of Britain

GEFS -  In the S, becoming cooler, a small bump of warmth around Mon 5th, then agreement between ens members fails with the mean slowly dropping to below norm. Note the contrast with the Op run; that is a a conspicuous warm outlier from the bunch. Very little rain after today's storms until appearing in some runs after Tue 13th. In the N similar temp profile though mean less buoyed up by a warm op run, rain beginning around Tue 6th, persisting in small amounts but becoming heavier from about 13th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2024 09:23:56

Overnight runs (and GFS 6z) suggest higher pressure clinging on for the far south through the weekend, then re-establishing it's influence quite quickly next week.

This trend continues, and I'll be happy.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Is your Devon trip next week Saint? And are you north, south or somewhere in the middle of the county? It's looking like you'll get some decent weather even if not especially warm.

I find that the south coast often has a micro-climate with very different weather from a few miles inland. Back in June 2021 we stayed in Brixham for a week. The forecast was awful but it actually turned out decent with plenty of dry sunny weather. For most of the week I was able to look inland to see dark clouds and heavy showers while we enjoyed the sun! 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Saint Snow
01 August 2024 09:31:28

Is your Devon trip next week Saint? And are you north, south or somewhere in the middle of the county? It's looking like you'll get some decent weather even if not especially warm.

I find that the south coast often has a micro-climate with very different weather from a few miles inland. Back in June 2021 we stayed in Brixham for a week. The forecast was awful but it actually turned out decent with plenty of dry sunny weather. For most of the week I was able to look inland to see dark clouds and heavy showers while we enjoyed the sun! 

Originally Posted by: GezM 




It's next week and South Hams.

The MO runs have been remarkably consistent the last 2/3 days. For the south coast (extending northwards to varying extent along), looks like Sat & Sun under the NE tip of the ridging AH. The low spins a front across the southern half of the UK on Monday, then the AH ridging back in.

It's not perfect, but temps at around 21c Sat/Sun and 19-20c Tue-Fri will have to do. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
soperman
01 August 2024 10:57:52
Hi Saint
It has been pretty good down here for a month or so excepting a few cloudy/rainy days and the sea has now warmed considerably. Don't forget to take a trip over to the ''Dark Side'' we call Brixham! 

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