TS Debby, even more so than most, will be giving the models problems in a week or so. Will it become a hurricane? (latest is probably yes). Will it move up the US coast into the Atlantic? (latest has it making a landfall in Carolina). But both these have changed in the last 24hrs - and GFS is already being inconsistent.
WX temps - still the same gradation from cool/cold in the far N Atlantic to warm/hot in the Mediterranean, with Britain between the two, cool in the NW, passably warm in the SE - but less general cooling in NW Europe than shown yesterday in week 2, and equally less warming in the E Baltic. Very hot in Spain week 1 and in SE Europe week 2. Rain in week 1 for Scotland and Scandinavia, becoming more extensive and moving SE to affect most of NW Europe week 2, but less so than yesterday.
GFS Op - for most of this week LP N/NW of Scotland and HP close to S England with W-lies for all, and fronts moving across, more active in the N. Pressure dropping to the SW Sat 10th, at first interacting with continental LP, later becoming the first of a series moving E into Britain before moving away NE-wards (3 separate events, Tue 13th 990mb Bristol Channel, Thu 15th 980mb E Ireland, Mon 19th 1000mb C Scotland - the last of these could incorporate remnants of Debby)
ECM - differs from GFS after Sat 10th, on that date no more than a kink in the isobars, but Debby then puts a lot of energy into the N Atlantic producing deep depression 965mb SW of Iceland with moderately high pressure for UK throughout and brisk W-lies later
GEM - noticeably unlike the above, pressure rises across Britain generally from Thu 8th and barring slight dents from ex-Debby Mon 12th 1005mb Hebrides and continental LP Tue 13th SE England pressure remains high throughout, eventually becoming centred over Scotland.
GEFS -in the S, warm around Mon 6th and Sat 10th, the degree of the warmth in the latter very variable as between ens members; cooler (a degree or two below norm) between and after these dates, small amounts of rain in many ens members from Sat 10th onwards. In the N, only the first warm episode, otherwise near or a little below norm in most ens members, rain in moderate amounts on most days, perhaps a brief dry slot around Tue 7th, always heavier in NW
Edited by user
04 August 2024 08:23:32
|
Reason: Not specified
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl