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Caz
  • Caz
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10 August 2024 03:06:28

Apart from lack of storms it's been about average overall here. Can't think of how it's the worse summer in 30 years unless you use some strange criteria to judge it¿

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Yes, same here.  I wouldn’t call it a bad summer.  We’ve had some cooler days and some very warm ones but steady comfortable temperatures mostly.  No long hot spells but no sustained wet spells either.  What has been noticeable is how readily temperatures have changed, from cool one day, to very warm/hot the next.
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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+1
Ally Pally Snowman
10 August 2024 04:43:55

Yes, same here.  I wouldn’t call it a bad summer.  We’ve had some cooler days and some very warm ones but steady comfortable temperatures mostly.  No long hot spells but no sustained wet spells either.  What has been noticeable is how readily temperatures have changed, from cool one day, to very warm/hot the next.

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Yes those of us in the East it's been OK. Unusual though- here it's been 

1st to 15th June - cold and damp
16th to 30th - warm and sunny 
1st to 17th July - cold and dryish
Since 17th July - very warm and dryish .
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
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10 August 2024 06:55:16
WX temp charts: A step backward after yesterday's modest optimism. Week 1 is reasonable, quite a lot of NW Europe hot away from the Channel/N Sea coast, and north of this area, warm for England across to the Baltic and Finland though N Scotland an Norway cool. In week 2, the cool/cold area which has been hanging around over W Russia makes a moves W-wards, with rather cool weather spreading all the way across Germany. S Britain and W France just about hang on to the remnants of something warm, not much change for Scotland. Rainfall in week 1 all the way across N Europe, from N Scotland to the Urals; in week 2 this clears E-wards with England and most of Scotland becoming rather dry.

GFS Op: the hot plume forecast for Monday is still on, though the LP inducing it is deeper (985mb Rockall) and leaves a trough trailing over E England before uniting with remnants of Debby near S Iceland, 980mb Wed 14th with winds going round to W or SW and some cool air being entrained. This system runs across N Scotland Fri 16th and on to the Baltic, to be followed by another Tue 20th with winds from the W/NW. There is then a general rise in pressure, 1025mb covering Britain Fri 23rd, perhaps pumped up by ex-hurricane Ernesto which by then is dying in mid-Atlantic. The HP persists to Mon 26th, moving a little N-wards to Scotland.

ECM: similar to GFS

GEM: after the LP develops near Iceland as per GFS, it just stays around there with W-lies for Britain (probably unsettled in the N, better in the S) and only moves on to Scandinavia Mon 19th with then some rather cold N-lies for Britain. In this model, at end of run on the 19th, Ernesto is still active in the N Atlantic and making steady progress NE-wards.

GEFS: Monday's peak heat in the S (and a fainter echo of it in the N) drops off quickly and for several days from Wed 14th mean ens temps everywhere are slightly below norm, op & control often amongst the lowest ens members but just a hint of something warmer from Fri 23rd (does not match WX above). Bits and pieces of rain in the S from Thu 15th onwards; in the N from Tue 13th onwards and at times quite heavy in the NW

No review tomorrow (Sun); I'm going out early.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
domma
10 August 2024 07:32:32
The weather here since May has been very warm or hot 35/36/37 most days with some thunderstorms and torrential rain thrown in. Today it's been hot and sunny around 36c. 
Caz
  • Caz
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10 August 2024 08:15:32

The weather here since May has been very warm or hot 35/36/37 most days with some thunderstorms and torrential rain thrown in. Today it's been hot and sunny around 36c. 

Originally Posted by: domma 


But where is here?  I guess you’re not in the UK but it would be interesting to know where you are. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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+4
domma
10 August 2024 15:13:09
Sorry I should have said, I do not know if you  remember years ago I was living in Thailand and that's where I am now. 
+3
Caz
  • Caz
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10 August 2024 16:45:44

Sorry I should have said, I do not know if you  remember years ago I was living in Thailand and that's where I am now. 

Originally Posted by: domma 


You could put your location in your signature, then you won’t have to keep telling us where you are. We were in Thailand in March and it was too hot for me, so is the 33c the Met Office has for here in North Notts for Monday.
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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+2
Rob K
10 August 2024 17:06:41
The GFS is still really keen on a deep low pressure hanging around for basically the whole of the third week of August, and then some. 
I really hope it is overdoing it. The ECM looks fairly decent for the south at day 10 but the GFS would be a complete write-off as far as summery weather goes. 

BBC forecast has 17-18C max for every day of my holiday in Cornwall and sunshine in very short supply. Pretty miserable for peak holiday season.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
10 August 2024 20:47:54
UKV going for 35C on Monday.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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The Dub Version
10 August 2024 21:26:39

The GFS is still really keen on a deep low pressure hanging around for basically the whole of the third week of August, and then some. 
I really hope it is overdoing it. The ECM looks fairly decent for the south at day 10 but the GFS would be a complete write-off as far as summery weather goes. 

BBC forecast has 17-18C max for every day of my holiday in Cornwall and sunshine in very short supply. Pretty miserable for peak holiday season.

Rob K wrote:


Luckily the GFS performance has been utter trash all summer. The most dire model now.
Berkshire
Rob K
11 August 2024 07:47:52

Luckily the GFS performance has been utter trash all summer. The most dire model now.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


GFS is less awful this morning. The ECM is really quite decent for the south. GEM has the jet further south and is not great at all. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Lionel Hutz
11 August 2024 21:03:55

The GFS is still really keen on a deep low pressure hanging around for basically the whole of the third week of August, and then some. 
I really hope it is overdoing it. The ECM looks fairly decent for the south at day 10 but the GFS would be a complete write-off as far as summery weather goes. 

BBC forecast has 17-18C max for every day of my holiday in Cornwall and sunshine in very short supply. Pretty miserable for peak holiday season.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


You need to move to Ireland. That way, you'll appreciate British weather far more. We're on holidays in Devon and we're quite impressed with the weather 😎. 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



DEW
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12 August 2024 06:58:22
WX Temps: not much change for Britain over the next two weeks, warm in the SE, cool in the NW. But there's a shift on the continent with the E Baltic moving from warm, and Aegean hot, in week 1 to cooler in week 2 (with W Russia definitely cool all along) while hotter weather from Spain takes more of a grip on France. Iceland, ominously, keeps a small area below freezing. Some drier weather into SW France in week 2; heavier rain for NW Scotland and Norway in week 1; but otherwise a fragmentary pattern of rainfall spread over Europe.

GFS Op - the current LP off Ireland whose circulation is bringing up the heat soon moves off N-wards and is incorporated in the usual pattern of LP off NW Scotland and HP over France with winds from a W-ly point, unsettled in the N, fine in the south, but with occasional troughs embedded to affect Britain as a whole e.g. Fri 16th. What look like two ex-hurricanes arrive in mid-N Atlantic Wed 21st and push up a bump of HP over Britain; this persists with a brief plume form the south Sun 26th before the N Atlantic (as so often this summer) produces an LP from near Greenland which sweeps up everything - and by Wed 28th the 'usual pattern' is re-established.

ECM - Unlike GFS, no significant trough Fri 16th but the controlling LP near Iceland drops S-wards Tue 20th and brings up some warm air before resuming its station off NW Scotland Wed 21st. The ex-hurricane is there on Wed 21st but dies in mid-Atlantic without interacting with N Atlantic circulation 

GEM - compared to GFS, the trough on Fri 16th is minimal; there is only one ex-hurricane and this gets incorporated into the N Atlantic W-lies very quickly, so no bump of HP, just a continuation of the W- or SW-ly regime but with stronger winds by Thu 22nd.

GEFS - temps drop back to norm by Wed 14th (in Scotland they were never much above) and the mean then continues close to or a little below norm for the next two weeks. There is however a lot of variation between ens members throughout and on most days you can find a member 5C above or another 5C below. Op & control cooler around Thu 22nd and warmer around Sun 26th. Only a little intermittent rain in the far SE (indeed dry here at first), much heavier and more frequent in the far NW, and a gradient between these extremes
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 August 2024 06:58:22
WX Temps: not much change for Britain over the next two weeks, warm in the SE, cool in the NW. But there's a shift on the continent with the E Baltic moving from warm, and Aegean hot, in week 1 to cooler in week 2 (with W Russia definitely cool all along) while hotter weather from Spain takes more of a grip on France. Iceland, ominously, keeps a small area below freezing. Some drier weather into SW France in week 2; heavier rain for NW Scotland and Norway in week 1; but otherwise a fragmentary pattern of rainfall spread over Europe.

GFS Op - the current LP off Ireland whose circulation is bringing up the heat soon moves off N-wards and is incorporated in the usual pattern of LP off NW Scotland and HP over France with winds from a W-ly point, unsettled in the N, fine in the south, but with occasional troughs embedded to affect Britain as a whole e.g. Fri 16th. What look like two ex-hurricanes arrive in mid-N Atlantic Wed 21st and push up a bump of HP over Britain; this persists with a brief plume form the south Sun 26th before the N Atlantic (as so often this summer) produces an LP from near Greenland which sweeps up everything - and by Wed 28th the 'usual pattern' is re-established.

ECM - Unlike GFS, no significant trough Fri 16th but the controlling LP near Iceland drops S-wards Tue 20th and brings up some warm air before resuming its station off NW Scotland Wed 21st. The ex-hurricane is there on Wed 21st but dies in mid-Atlantic without interacting with N Atlantic circulation 

GEM - compared to GFS, the trough on Fri 16th is minimal; there is only one ex-hurricane and this gets incorporated into the N Atlantic W-lies very quickly, so no bump of HP, just a continuation of the W- or SW-ly regime but with stronger winds by Thu 22nd.

GEFS - temps drop back to norm by Wed 14th (in Scotland they were never much above) and the mean then continues close to or a little below norm for the next two weeks. There is however a lot of variation between ens members throughout and on most days you can find a member 5C above or another 5C below. Op & control cooler around Thu 22nd and warmer around Sun 26th. Only a little intermittent rain in the far SE (indeed dry here at first), much heavier and more frequent in the far NW, and a gradient between these extremes
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Rob K
12 August 2024 08:21:15
GFS and ECM seem to have swapped places now with GFS keeping high pressure largely in charge for the south next week while ECM brings a deep low back by mid week. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
12 August 2024 08:28:47
No surprise to see the illusion of rain continuing to recede like a rainbow down here - the GFS has been a real tease, but today even the week 2 deluge is absent.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png 
We're already seeing various grass and crop fires down here, and that trend will only accelerate.
The MetO raw is joining in the "fun" too, pushing back the arrival of normal temperatures each day. Of the current week ahead forecast, only one day - Sunday - is forecast to be normal, the rest are all above or well above average. The modern summer is in full swing, the only caveat being that as the days are shortening rapidly now it's not quite as warm as it would have been earlier in the season.
Leysdown, north Kent
icecoldstevet
12 August 2024 09:32:36

You need to move to Ireland. That way, you'll appreciate British weather far more. We're on holidays in Devon and we're quite impressed with the weather 😎. 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


The models don't really show the 'weather' particularly on the coast in Devon and Cornwall as many coastal areas have their own micro-climates.  We live 1 mile inland and models/apps can show cloud with 18c yet it can easily be sunny and well over 20c on the beach, likewise when 25c + is forecast it can be 18c with sea fog where we are and on the beach yet scorching hot just up the road.  So down here I'd wouldn't take the models/apps at face value even those just a few hours ahead (e.g. it tipped it down last night in Bude and Hartland yet no risk of rain was shown).
Cornwall - 50 Metres Above Sea Level - 1 Mile From The Atlantic Coast
overland
12 August 2024 10:54:58

The models don't really show the 'weather' particularly on the coast in Devon and Cornwall as many coastal areas have their own micro-climates.  We live 1 mile inland and models/apps can show cloud with 18c yet it can easily be sunny and well over 20c on the beach, likewise when 25c + is forecast it can be 18c with sea fog where we are and on the beach yet scorching hot just up the road.  So down here I'd wouldn't take the models/apps at face value even those just a few hours ahead (e.g. it tipped it down last night in Bude and Hartland yet no risk of rain was shown).

Originally Posted by: icecoldstevet 


This is very true. We live around 600m from the coast and often when the weather is sunny, a little further inland it's the opposite with the build up of convective cloud. The downside is, as a south westerly facing coast, sea mist.

The outlook for here continues the same summer theme of never very bad, but also never very good!
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Rob K
12 August 2024 11:17:47

The models don't really show the 'weather' particularly on the coast in Devon and Cornwall as many coastal areas have their own micro-climates.  We live 1 mile inland and models/apps can show cloud with 18c yet it can easily be sunny and well over 20c on the beach, likewise when 25c + is forecast it can be 18c with sea fog where we are and on the beach yet scorching hot just up the road.  So down here I'd wouldn't take the models/apps at face value even those just a few hours ahead (e.g. it tipped it down last night in Bude and Hartland yet no risk of rain was shown).

Originally Posted by: icecoldstevet 


Yes I suspect the gridpoints pick up the sea and show a chilly 17-18C when in fact if you find a nice sheltered beach or pub garden it can feel very pleasant. Strong winds look like being the main spoiler but at least I will have my wetsuit and bodyboard!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
12 August 2024 11:44:30

No surprise to see the illusion of rain continuing to recede like a rainbow down here - the GFS has been a real tease, but today even the week 2 deluge is absent.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png 
We're already seeing various grass and crop fires down here, and that trend will only accelerate.
The MetO raw is joining in the "fun" too, pushing back the arrival of normal temperatures each day. Of the current week ahead forecast, only one day - Sunday - is forecast to be normal, the rest are all above or well above average. The modern summer is in full swing, the only caveat being that as the days are shortening rapidly now it's not quite as warm as it would have been earlier in the season.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Thought I'd make at least one summer post, before I start getting more interested in things again as we head through Autumn!

In West Kent we're not doing too badly (locally at least) with a reasonable amount of rain through June (a smidge below average) and July (a bit above). Following what was generally a very wet winter and spring, we've had enough rain at regular enough intervals to have avoided the yellow, scorched look that's been prevalent more often than not over the past few years. We did also get hit by a storm and some left over showery bits on 1st August, which gave around 12mm of rain, so the soil whilst drying out now, has generally retained a fair bit of moisture.  I did notice for balance on a few client visits to East/South East Kent things looked much drier and with your comments assume there's a fair bit of difference West to East across the county. 

In terms of bringing it back more on topic, the models do have that stereotypical late summer look to me - Autumn encroaching for the NW of the UK, Summer very much in charge for the SE, with oscillating stuff in between. In the more reliable term most of the models agree that the precip shown fizzles as it crosses the country (down here, different further North!) and there's little rain shown. That could change if we get any decent storms and/or the jet pushes a bit further south and we get some little features zipping over the far South but at least for the next week or so it's not looking likely. 

In more general terms and given the tendency for ridges of HP to be sucked up by LPs encroaching from the West, I'd be surprised if we don't get at least one or two more bursts of heat IMBY. Taking the London ECM ens for example there's nothing as noticeable as today's 850s shown but plenty of +15 spikes shown, which may well intensify again nearer the time if the pattern persists.  

And back O/T again re Cornwall - we were down there 10 days or so ago and I was *very* happy to miss the worst of the heat back home. The only day we really noticed the heat was when we went inland to Devon, but the rest of the time we were mostly close enough to the coast for the Atlantic to moderate the temps in to the bearable range. One of the things I love about Cornwall, other than the scenery, is the temps are generally less extreme and nights in particular are much more clement from a sleeping point of view.  It's very pleasing when it's 19-24 down there, looking at 30+C temps back in Kent with overnight temps struggling to drop lower than 18-20c!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+5
tierradelfuego
12 August 2024 13:16:08

One of the things I love about Cornwall, other than the scenery, is the temps are generally less extreme and nights in particular are much more clement from a sleeping point of view.  It's very pleasing when it's 19-24 down there, looking at 30+C temps back in Kent with overnight temps struggling to drop lower than 18-20c!

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 



We had that last year in Devon as well during the June hot weather. It was a 30c+ day here at home, but a pleasant 25c down there. The young lady serving our cafe/pub lunch made me smile when she said it is boiling down here today.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Rob K
12 August 2024 13:30:01
UKMO is actually the pick of the models, set fair right out to T168 after a little blip on Thur/Fri this week.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
12 August 2024 16:58:18
Getting quite warm again across the south and especially SE towards the second half of next week on the GFS and GEM 12Z runs. (Sorry Darren!)

Ties in with the Met Office long-ranger which suggests the possibility of just that.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tierradelfuego
12 August 2024 20:46:01
The latest GFS, as you say Rob, and the whole GEFS suite really look pretty good for down here at least. Always above 20c, nothing much above 25c and little but enough rain. Garden might need a bit of watering but should be nice before a quick trip to Chamonix at the end of August to watch the UTMB.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2024 07:09:30
WX temps - Still very warm in a line from N Spain to S Urals. cool from N Scotland to Norway and a fairly steady gradient between, Less cooling around the Baltic than shown yesterday also less warming in the west of Europe, but  SE England managing to stay warm. Rain in week 1 for N Atlantic, Alps and Russia; in week 2 moving from the Atlantic into western coastal Europe though much of E Britain fairly dry.

GFS Op - the pattern of LP near NW Scotland and HP over France continues for the next two weeks with winds for Britain from a W-ly point. The current LP is displaced by a very deep LP developed out of hurricane Ernesto (960mb S of Iceland Thu 22nd). This is further N and closer than shown yesterday so pushing troughs across Britain, and unlike shown yesterday not generating HP in front of its approach. As it moves away, some HP nosing in from the SW Thu 29th.

ECM - similar to GFS until Ernesto takes a more S-ly course and runs into the Hebrides Fri 23rd 975mb

GEM - Ernesto even further S, crossing S England but as a weak feature on Thu 22nd

GEFS - mean temps remain near norm (tendency for above in S, below in N) for rest of August but the mean is surrounded by a wide variation in ens members. Very little rain for the S, but heavy in N after Mon 19th and esp in NW
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3

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