WX temp charts: A step backward after yesterday's modest optimism. Week 1 is reasonable, quite a lot of NW Europe hot away from the Channel/N Sea coast, and north of this area, warm for England across to the Baltic and Finland though N Scotland an Norway cool. In week 2, the cool/cold area which has been hanging around over W Russia makes a moves W-wards, with rather cool weather spreading all the way across Germany. S Britain and W France just about hang on to the remnants of something warm, not much change for Scotland. Rainfall in week 1 all the way across N Europe, from N Scotland to the Urals; in week 2 this clears E-wards with England and most of Scotland becoming rather dry.
GFS Op: the hot plume forecast for Monday is still on, though the LP inducing it is deeper (985mb Rockall) and leaves a trough trailing over E England before uniting with remnants of Debby near S Iceland, 980mb Wed 14th with winds going round to W or SW and some cool air being entrained. This system runs across N Scotland Fri 16th and on to the Baltic, to be followed by another Tue 20th with winds from the W/NW. There is then a general rise in pressure, 1025mb covering Britain Fri 23rd, perhaps pumped up by ex-hurricane Ernesto which by then is dying in mid-Atlantic. The HP persists to Mon 26th, moving a little N-wards to Scotland.
ECM: similar to GFS
GEM: after the LP develops near Iceland as per GFS, it just stays around there with W-lies for Britain (probably unsettled in the N, better in the S) and only moves on to Scandinavia Mon 19th with then some rather cold N-lies for Britain. In this model, at end of run on the 19th, Ernesto is still active in the N Atlantic and making steady progress NE-wards.
GEFS: Monday's peak heat in the S (and a fainter echo of it in the N) drops off quickly and for several days from Wed 14th mean ens temps everywhere are slightly below norm, op & control often amongst the lowest ens members but just a hint of something warmer from Fri 23rd (does not match WX above). Bits and pieces of rain in the S from Thu 15th onwards; in the N from Tue 13th onwards and at times quite heavy in the NW
No review tomorrow (Sun); I'm going out early.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl