Well it was not on the NHC model. Usually it shows a percentage of probability like with Helena and yesterday when I checked all I could see was Kirk and Leslie. So Milton obviously strengthened and very quickly.
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
NHC were talking about it 😂
"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or
this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...
medium...40 percent."
This was from last Sunday....
PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores,
on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean,
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
1. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system
is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico
during the latter portion of this week. Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Edited by user
06 October 2024 12:49:55
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Reason: Not specified