WX temp charts not dissimilar to those of the last few days; in week 1,if anything Europe as a whole (exc Spain) is above norm, more so than previously, In week 2 something much colder blows in across N baltic and Russia, further north than shown yesterday so Britain hangs on to milder weather for longer. Something warmer creeping back into S Spain. Rain in week 1 fror Spain and W Med, also hovering just off W coast of Britain; in week 2, Spain is drier but rain is pushing into W Britain and also heavy over Norway.
GFS Op - N-S trough with main centre 995mb SW Ireland tomorrow Friday, soon filling, pressure rising and forming a broad NW-SE ridge, peak Thu 31st 1030mb extending from Hebrides to Hungary. This retreats SE-wards as troughs approach from the Atlantic from Mon 4th, weak at first, then embedded in a zonal flow Wed 6th with strong W-lies developing (usual unsettled in the N, better in the S) until finally Sat 9th a large but not especially stormy depression approaches W Ireland 980mb.
ECM - similar to GFS until Thu 31st when the HP splits, part going SE-wards as above, part remaining on the Atlantic with a brief N-ly plunge down the N Sea Sat 2nd before HP rebuilds from the SW, centred 1035mb Wales Sun 3rd.
GEM - similar to GFS until Thu 31st but with more emphasis on the Atlantic end of the ridge, and the HP then retreats SW-wards allowing LP to run across Scotland 1010mb Sat 2nd. Any N-ly plunge is weak and mainly affecting Norway.
GEFS - in the S, temps consistently a couple of degrees above norm for the rest of October, mean slowly declining to norm over the following week as ens agreement breaks up; a spot or two of rain Sat 26th otherwise dry in nearly all runs, perhaps a little in the SW later. In the N, mean temps similar (brief dip on 27th) but less ens agreement from the start; rain 27th/28th, and higher chances later on.
So, broad agreement for a week and then the three main models go different ways
Edited by user
24 October 2024 07:32:40
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Reason: Not specified
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