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ballamar
23 October 2024 09:42:44

Doesn't seem to be much optimism here for the upcoming Winter and I'm hardly surprised to be honest!!

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Winters going by current trends are most likely to be milder - probably why! Someone could probably make a case that it will be colder but certainly no overriding signals for an early cold snap yet. Enjoy model watching and don’t get emotional 😂
White Meadows
23 October 2024 12:52:34
An extended (mostly) dry spell for the southern contingent emerging in the output. 
Seems to align with Exeters recent thoughts 
warrenb
23 October 2024 13:08:54
I think after last winter where all the indicators were good, south displaced jet, waning La Nina, etc etc, and it was still mild and wet.
Look at the patterns last winter, the jet was way south of where it should have been, but there was just no cold air to tap into.
Retron
23 October 2024 13:43:19

I think after last winter where all the indicators were good, south displaced jet, waning La Nina, etc etc, and it was still mild and wet.
Look at the patterns last winter, the jet was way south of where it should have been, but there was just no cold air to tap into.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Yes, it was quite remarkable really! The jet was indeed far south of normal, but it was generally zonal rather than full of traditional "eye candy" charts. The core of winter was effectively condensed into just 10 days in January, where we had easterlies from a Scandinavian High which retrogressed but - as you say - there simply wasn't enough cold air nearby for anything noteworthy. A few flakes of snow, a 5-minute dusting and then it went back to zonality again.

As I've said before, though, it's comforting in a way that despite TWO being around for nearly a quarter of a century - we *still* don't have the ability to predict 6 weeks, or even 2 weeks ahead with any great reliability.

Last year, incidentally, there was a bit of interest from the ECM "AI" forecasts (i.e. glorified pattern matching). The end of the winter stats showed they did, in fact, verify slightly higher than traditional NWP at 10 days' range, but not enough to make a massive difference. Several times last winter they flip-flopped, just as the main models did!

Incidentally, and new for this winter, are ECM "AI" meteograms for your chosen location, going out for 10 days. It seems there's a whole ensemble suite now for "AI" forecasts, not just a single deterministic model as we saw last year.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202410230000&epsgram=aifs_classical_10d&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading 

is the link, you can pop your own town in of course. And just like the traditional ensembles, there's an option to view 850hPa temperatures too, by using the "plumes" option.

The regular ECM ensemble output can be seen here:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202410230000&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading 

FWIW there's not much difference between them, but the "AI" output is a bit warmer overall I'd say, especially for nights.
Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
23 October 2024 13:49:08

IMO they often follow each other but i dont have the stats to hand.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Interesting - I'd not heard that before

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
23 October 2024 20:41:54
A southerly tracking Jetstream is slightly more likely I think in El nino winters as the southern Pacific jet has a bit more 'oomph' to it. The pattern in the model forecasts - crap inflated high plonked off the southern coasts seems more of a la Nina thing. It is worse case scenario and I fear that this God foresaken, nothing pattern will be dominant for the rest of this autumn and coming winter. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
CField
23 October 2024 21:18:35

A southerly tracking Jetstream is slightly more likely I think in El nino winters as the southern Pacific jet has a bit more 'oomph' to it. The pattern in the model forecasts - crap inflated high plonked off the southern coasts seems more of a la Nina thing. It is worse case scenario and I fear that this God foresaken, nothing pattern will be dominant for the rest of this autumn and coming winter. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Be interesting if a late autumn kerfuffle suffices...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Hungry Tiger
23 October 2024 21:31:27

Hi, I just registered after solely talking in the net weather forum. Is there anything I need to know for this website?

Originally Posted by: JH96 


Welcome to the TWO forum.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Brian Gaze
23 October 2024 22:01:26
ECM ENS looking very mild or even warm for Halloween.

UserPostedImage


Bonfire Night also looks quite mild.


UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
23 October 2024 22:59:27

An extended (mostly) dry spell for the southern contingent emerging in the output. 
Seems to align with Exeters recent thoughts 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Good. The longer that eats into Autumn, the better.
Folkestone Harbour. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 October 2024 07:26:33
WX temp charts not dissimilar to those of the last few days; in week 1,if anything Europe as a whole (exc Spain) is above norm, more so than previously,  In week 2 something much colder blows in across N baltic and Russia, further north than shown yesterday so Britain hangs on to milder weather for longer. Something warmer creeping back into S Spain. Rain in week 1 fror Spain and W Med, also hovering just off W coast of Britain; in week 2, Spain is drier but rain is pushing into W Britain and also heavy over Norway.

GFS Op - N-S trough with main centre 995mb SW Ireland tomorrow Friday, soon filling, pressure rising and forming a broad NW-SE ridge, peak Thu 31st 1030mb extending from Hebrides to Hungary. This retreats SE-wards as troughs approach from the Atlantic from Mon 4th, weak at first, then embedded in a zonal flow Wed 6th with strong W-lies developing (usual unsettled in the N, better in the S) until finally Sat 9th a large but not especially stormy depression approaches W Ireland 980mb. 

ECM - similar to GFS until Thu 31st when the HP splits, part going SE-wards as above, part remaining on the Atlantic with a brief N-ly plunge down the N Sea Sat 2nd before HP rebuilds from the SW, centred 1035mb Wales Sun 3rd.

GEM - similar to GFS until Thu 31st but with more emphasis on the Atlantic end of the ridge, and the HP then retreats SW-wards allowing LP to run across Scotland 1010mb Sat 2nd. Any N-ly plunge is weak and mainly affecting Norway.

GEFS - in the S, temps consistently a couple of degrees above norm for the rest of October, mean slowly declining to norm over the following week as ens agreement breaks up; a spot or two of rain Sat 26th otherwise dry in nearly all runs, perhaps a little in the SW later.  In the N, mean temps similar (brief dip on 27th) but less ens agreement from the start; rain 27th/28th, and higher chances later on.


So, broad agreement for a week and then the three main models go different ways
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
24 October 2024 19:08:55
High becomes chilly after next weekend, November could start a bit more seasonal. Hopefully kill off the flies!
Narnia
24 October 2024 20:07:15
Roll on the high pressure, looking good with the latest charts. 
Brian Gaze
25 October 2024 07:18:35
It's unusual in the UK to be able to plan weather related activities 10 days ahead. At the moment it looks possible and Bonfire Night (chart below is actually for 04/11 but close enough) provides an excellent focal point. Most of the output is showing a high pressure dominated scenario but obviously there are variations on a theme. I'll be looking out to see if:

1) the basic premise turns out to be correct

2) how temperatures (day and night) respond

UserPostedImage   
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 October 2024 07:18:48
WX temps continuing the same pattern, generally above norm for week 1, generally cooling in week2 but especially so in N Scandinavia and Russia, some warmth moving into S Spain and Biscay - Spain has been one area cooler than norm. Some rain at present in W Mediterranean and N Atalntic but becoming very dry in week 2 for all of Europe, not just C & SE, excepting Sicily and the ultra-far west.

GFS Op - current trough centred near Cornwall filling and replaced by Hp from the SW, forming a broad W-E ridge Wed 30th covering all of Britain, The ridge slowly tilts to a N-S orientation and intensifies 1035mb Sat 2nd. It's still there a week later , a little further east and stretching down to Greece with mild S-lies for Britain.

ECM - similar though the HP weakens around Fri 1st with N-lies affecting Britain and W Europe for a day or two, before resuming.

GEM - more like GFS than ECM

GEFS - mean temp stays just above norm throughout, well supported by ens members to Fri 1st after which a number of members are much colder. Very dry throughout, just a few spits of rain in the N at first, and in a few ens members after Fri 8th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
lanky
25 October 2024 07:38:58

It's unusual in the UK to be able to plan weather related activities 10 days ahead. At the moment it looks possible and Bonfire Night (chart below is actually for 04/11 but close enough) provides an excellent focal point. Most of the output is showing a high pressure dominated scenario but obviously there are variations on a theme. I'll be looking out to see if:

1) the basic premise turns out to be correct

2) how temperatures (day and night) respond

UserPostedImage   

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


looks like fog would be the main problem
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
warrenb
25 October 2024 08:13:55
Looking at the northern hemisphere view for 850's and it looks like late summer will continue for some time to come. Even at 384 (10th Nov), barely any proper cold air in the northern hemisphere.
ozone_aurora
25 October 2024 14:57:18

It's unusual in the UK to be able to plan weather related activities 10 days ahead. At the moment it looks possible and Bonfire Night (chart below is actually for 04/11 but close enough) provides an excellent focal point. Most of the output is showing a high pressure dominated scenario but obviously there are variations on a theme. I'll be looking out to see if:

1) the basic premise turns out to be correct

2) how temperatures (day and night) respond

UserPostedImage   

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Hopefully, during this period we might get some good clear nights to do some astrophotography, if not, some good visibility to do some long distance photography. However, as lanky has pointed out, could have problems with fog (or even smog). I will of course depend on what airmass will be included in the high pressure.

With the above chart, it looks as if it will be mostly cloudy and misty but perhaps some clear skies and even good visibility to the NE of the UK (including Fohn effects).
White Meadows
25 October 2024 20:00:22
Building trend towards extended dry, and cooling off a bit for bonfire night.
T’will make a nice change from the 3-4 week deluge in many parts.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 October 2024 20:16:08



With the above chart, it looks as if it will be mostly cloudy and misty but perhaps some clear skies and even good visibility to the NE of the UK (including Fohn effects).

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


The BBC was being pessimistic and forecasting a 'cloudy high'.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
25 October 2024 20:21:55
Taken at face value the UKV is showing plenty of sunshine in the southern half of the UK by the middle of next week. However, more often than not a cloudier scenario manages to develop IME.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
25 October 2024 20:26:04
ECM looks chilly with -10C 850hpa not far from Scotland in early November. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
25 October 2024 20:45:57
Can I say that I don't like the new colour scheme.

🥺

The contrast between the +5 and 0 isotherm is too pronounced. I prefer the very pale blue to start at -5c.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
25 October 2024 21:00:42

Can I say that I don't like the new colour scheme.

🥺

The contrast between the +5 and 0 isotherm is too pronounced. I prefer the very pale blue to start at -5c.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I wanted to make the -10, -5, 0, 5 and 10C boundaries very clear, particularly the 0C one. Most of the feedback has been very positive (not sure if you're on Twitter) but I'll run it for a while and see how it goes. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
25 October 2024 21:02:59

I wanted to make the -10, -5, 0, 5 and 10C boundaries very clear, particularly the 0C one. Most of the feedback has been very positive (not sure if you're on Twitter) but I'll run it for a while and see how it goes. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Oh blimey, don't consider changing it on my gripe. It's just a personal preference.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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