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Spring Sun Winter Dread
28 October 2024 22:23:29
@Saint Snow
My birthday is March 2nd and I have to say I have had more snow on birthday than at Xmas in my life (most recently and notably in 2018 when a written off car was my birthday treat due to the snowy conditions and the other drivers inability to adapt to them successfully). Mar 2013 was colder than any winter month since 
I wouldn't say March is the snowiest month but it certainly punches above its weight . Its autumn "opposite number " November, by contrast, has become a bit of a snow desert , IMBY only one small fall since the very cold Nov in 2010 (in 2021).
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 October 2024 07:44:53
WX temps - generally above norm for W Europe this week, and developments next week as previously forecast; even more cold air moving into Russia from the north, some outwash to E Europe; mild in W Iberia and Biscay, just about touching S Britain, but slowly falling back. Rain virtually absent from the whole of Europe for two weeks; just a little in Spain week 1, and some on the N Atlantic but even that misses W Scotland.

GFS Op - HP well established over Britain tomorrow (Wed) and staying centred over or close to the N Sea, often with ridge SE-wards and mostly S-ly winds for Britain. LPs taking a N-ly course from Greenland to Novaya Zemlya and staying well clear of Britain.

ECM - Similar to GFS; the HP at times is more of a N-S ridge rather than a broad area but not so much as to affect British weather.

GEM - similar to GFS, but with the HP tending to move to Scotland from Thu7th rather than the southern N Sea

GEFS - soon becoming very mild (5 or 6 C above norm) gradually declining but still above norm by a couple of degrees to 14th Nov. Unusually good ens agreement throughout. Chances of rain minimal, just showing in 1 or 2 runs after Thu 7th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
29 October 2024 07:56:18
Remarkable to see the ECM ENS probability charts showing the percentage chance of 5mm or more rain falling at t+13 days to be between 0% and 10% in much of the south and east. This could be a very boring spell of weather but if the models are correct it looks like a very notable one too.

UserPostedImage

Even in the north west of the UK the 850hPa temperature anomaly level and consistency is unusual.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Matty H
29 October 2024 07:57:21

Recent winters have indeed seen their coldest spells early on. And this year will be no exception based on Exeter’s updated Contingency Planners 3 month outlook today:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_ndj_v1.pdf 
Overall winter being cold just 5%!! 
Can’t remember seeing it that poor since its conception. Much higher chance of ‘normal’ (mild) or ‘mild’ (very mild). The only crumb of comfort for me is the absence of particularly windy or wet conditions overall. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


That’s encouraging, although I’ve no idea what their success rate is like on these. Mixed I’d imagine at the range of time involved 
marcus72
29 October 2024 08:10:19

This must be one of the biggest 16 day 850hPa temperature anomalies ever recorded in the UK. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Would love to see that graph flipped upside down in January!
Langstone, SE Hampshire
Ally Pally Snowman
29 October 2024 08:15:50
Annoyingly it is looking like a mostly cloudy high atm. Rock solid HP for the foreseeable though. Probably the longest HP dominated pattern for 2 years.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
29 October 2024 08:34:50


...

GEFS - soon becoming very mild (5 or 6 C above norm) gradually declining but still above norm by a couple of degrees to 14th Nov. Unusually good ens agreement throughout. Chances of rain minimal, just showing in 1 or 2 runs after Thu 7th.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


The London 00z GEFS is probably the most prolonged dry outlook that I've seen in all my years of model-watching.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Brian Gaze
29 October 2024 08:40:33

Annoyingly it is looking like a mostly cloudy high atm. Rock solid HP for the foreseeable though. Probably the longest HP dominated pattern for 2 years.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yes there are enough small rain spikes appearing to suggest there will be a lot of cloud in the mix. That also means overnight lows could  remain quite high. When I went running this morning it felt "warm". It looks like they will drop somewhat, but getting an inversion and low level cold is often elusive even when things look promising. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
GezM
  • GezM
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29 October 2024 09:43:26

Yeah man, but it’s a dry heat!!

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Which is great news! 

If only it was July. Could have been a momentous heatwave. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Matty H
29 October 2024 10:19:05

Which is great news! 

If only it was July. Could have been a momentous heatwave. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


No doubt that’ll be when we pay for this dry spell 
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
29 October 2024 10:40:41

Remarkable to see the ECM ENS probability charts showing the percentage chance of 5mm or more rain falling at t+13 days to be between 0% and 10% in much of the south and east. This could be a very boring spell of weather but if the models are correct it looks like a very notable one too.

UserPostedImage

Even in the north west of the UK the 850hPa temperature anomaly level and consistency is unusual.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It’s definitely a worrying trend. I’ve booked Val d’Isère leading up to Christmas, and the snow line is sitting at over 3,000 meters at present In couple of nights time 0c at 4,000 meters!. I monitor snow conditions across the Alps every year, and I can’t recall it ever being this poor. There’s not even frost at night, with muddy trails mid-mountain preventing artificial snowmaking for forseable future. The high-pressure ridge seems stuck over Europe, and there's no sign of relief.

For once, it feels like we can predict the next two weeks with little hope for change. Hopefully, I’m wrong, and a weather shift is on the way.
Kingston Upon Thames
Retron
29 October 2024 10:52:56

It’s definitely a worrying trend.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 


I'm guessing you weren't online in the late 90s, early 2000s, when a whopping great high ended up over the Alps seemingly every winter. The Bartlett high, it was nicknamed (by those on weather forums/newsgroups), and there was a chap on here in the early days who kept going on about the pressure in Berne. Fun times!

It makes a change to see such a settled outlook, and I'm thoroughly enjoying it - makes a change from the usual zonality this time of year. I'm trying not to remind myself though of the old maxim, "be it dry or be it wet, nature always pays her debt". Instead, I'm hoping that the trend we've seen in recent years for patterns to repeat every 6 to 8 weeks kicks in - a long settled spell in winter is well overdue.

Incidentally this high isn't a cold one - yet. The moist Atlantic air is definitely making itself felt, and the dewpoint (14C here) is impressively high for this time of year. The MetO raw does, however, show a characteristic gradual drop in temperatures over the next week, a high of 17 today versus 11 in a week's time, reflecting the fact that the sun is now too weak to warm things up, and instead under stagnant conditions things just get colder and colder. There's a hell of a long way to go though compared to the old days: in the 80s and 90s it wasn't at all unusual to get an air frost for bonfire night, something which seldom happens these days.

It'll be interesting to see how long this can persist and whether, with time, we can pull some drier air in from the continent - that would be the catalyst for clear skies and frosts, but at the moment it looks unlikely.
Leysdown, north Kent
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
29 October 2024 11:10:41

I'm guessing you weren't online in the late 90s, early 2000s, when a whopping great high ended up over the Alps seemingly every winter. The Bartlett high, it was nicknamed (by those on weather forums/newsgroups), and there was a chap on here in the early days who kept going on about the pressure in Berne. Fun times!

It makes a change to see such a settled outlook, and I'm thoroughly enjoying it - makes a change from the usual zonality this time of year. I'm trying not to remind myself though of the old maxim, "be it dry or be it wet, nature always pays her debt". Instead, I'm hoping that the trend we've seen in recent years for patterns to repeat every 6 to 8 weeks kicks in - a long settled spell in winter is well overdue.

Incidentally this high isn't a cold one - yet. The moist Atlantic air is definitely making itself felt, and the dewpoint (14C here) is impressively high for this time of year. The MetO raw does, however, show a characteristic gradual drop in temperatures over the next week, a high of 17 today versus 11 in a week's time, reflecting the fact that the sun is now too weak to warm things up, and instead under stagnant conditions things just get colder and colder. There's a hell of a long way to go though compared to the old days: in the 80s and 90s it wasn't at all unusual to get an air frost for bonfire night, something which seldom happens these days.

It'll be interesting to see how long this can persist and whether, with time, we can pull some drier air in from the continent - that would be the catalyst for clear skies and frosts, but at the moment it looks unlikely.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I remember the 90s too, though I wasn’t part of the forum then. I've been skiing since childhood and always made it a point to head to snow-sure resorts in the Alps—I just love seeing the snow on the ground. I even remember the old BBC ski forecasts in the 90s, and one year, the weatherman finally announced that the stubborn high-pressure system would shift, letting the weather fronts move in just in time for December ski openings.

What really concerns me now, though, is the freezing level sitting well above 3,000 meters. IF the models show a promising cold spell and snowfall in two weeks, we know how forecasts tend to shift five days before the event. But with this setup, I’m almost certain they’ll be spot-on, and I have a gut feeling this pattern might linger into end of Novand  early December.
Kingston Upon Thames
Brian Gaze
29 October 2024 11:41:29

I remember the 90s too, though I wasn’t part of the forum then. I've been skiing since childhood and always made it a point to head to snow-sure resorts in the Alps—I just love seeing the snow on the ground. I even remember the old BBC ski forecasts in the 90s, and one year, the weatherman finally announced that the stubborn high-pressure system would shift, letting the weather fronts move in just in time for December ski openings.

What really concerns me now, though, is the freezing level sitting well above 3,000 meters. IF the models show a promising cold spell and snowfall in two weeks, we know how forecasts tend to shift five days before the event. But with this setup, I’m almost certain they’ll be spot-on, and I have a gut feeling this pattern might linger into end of Novand  early December.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 




I pulled on a pair of skies for the first time since 2016 earlier this month. That said, we're not wedded to the idea of going back to the Alps this winter and I'm also concerned about the snow prospects. We usually (or used to) go to Courchevel 1650.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
29 October 2024 13:22:54

That’s encouraging, although I’ve no idea what their success rate is like on these. Mixed I’d imagine at the range of time involved 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Zero.
Years of back loaded, front loaded mid loaded garbage. Its a 3 month forecast which updates every few weeks , so makes the 3 month span useless.

As they have gone mild, I now expect some very cold spells.

Berkshire
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
29 October 2024 13:37:52

I pulled on a pair of skies for the first time since 2016 earlier this month. That said, we're not wedded to the idea of going back to the Alps this winter and I'm also concerned about the snow prospects. We usually (or used to) go to Courchevel 1650.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 We do ski drive with family every year sometimes twice year depending on kids exams etc. Val at 1850 and Cervinia at 2050. (both village level) are favourite. never had a problem but at present its mud time below 3,000m. Both resorts have glaciers but I really do not fency skiing unless there is plentiful snow at village level.

Persistent high-pressure systems over Europe at present notoriously stubborn, and once established, they often take time to shift. However, these patterns can break down as new weather systems move in from the Atlantic or Arctic, hopefully later November when jet stream patterns start to shift, hopefully increasing the chance of Atlantic low-pressure systems nudging the high-pressure ridge out of place. This could allow colder air to push southward and bring the snowfall to the Alps.

waiting game for now but very annoying how there is such good cross model agreement at present and I am bloody sure its nearly 90% accurate at such long range. had it been the other way round I would say chance 5% wintry weather would come true nearer the time.

Kingston Upon Thames
White Meadows
29 October 2024 18:04:55

Zero.
Years of back loaded, front loaded mid loaded garbage. Its a 3 month forecast which updates every few weeks , so makes the 3 month span useless.

As they have gone mild, I now expect some very cold spells.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 




Careful, you don’t to upset the Metpolice! On a serious note, they went for front loaded last winter IIRC, came close but missed the target as the cold spell came a few weeks later than expected. Might be better sticking with Moomin’s outlook this year. 
As for the Alps, early April 2022 and 2023 in the Grand Massif produced excellent conditions above 1800 for the week I was there on both occasions. Usually a risky game before March these days. 

Gandalf The White
29 October 2024 18:10:36

Zero.
Years of back loaded, front loaded mid loaded garbage. Its a 3 month forecast which updates every few weeks , so makes the 3 month span useless.

As they have gone mild, I now expect some very cold spells.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


We’re heading into a La Niña and that favours colder winters in Western Europe, but it’s obviously only one factor.

As it is we seem to be destined to be content for now with wondering whether autumn will deliver an air frost in lowland England.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


White Meadows
29 October 2024 18:20:01
I just read that Mount Fuji is still without snow, making it the latest time in the year the mountain has remained bare since records began 130 years ago. If it’s a struggle there, perhaps we’re closer to the first snowless Alps season than we first imagined.
Bertwhistle
29 October 2024 18:35:52
Impressive thicknesses of 564+ into November with end October dam as high as 566 forecast by GFS op (remembering this is short term). 
850s in NE England around 14 with 564 thicknesses. Shame insolation won't have the earlier autumn impact- could be some 2014 31/10 type excitement.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 October 2024 07:47:25
WX temps maintain the contrast between cold steadily spreading from the east into all of Russia in week 2 and mild weather off W Iberia and Biscay. Most of Europe including Britain stay generally above norm. A very dry area covering most of Europe including Britain in week 1 with rain in Spain, Russia and Scandinavia; the dry area slipping south in week 2 so Spain dries up and rain approaches the north of Scotland.

GFS Op - HP consistently close and controlling British weather for the next two weeks. If anything, weaker and centred on the near continent Tue 5th allowing the Atlantic with S-lies to approach W Britain but resuming and strengthening S Ireland from Sat 9th with NW-lies for the far NE.

ECM - drifts away from GFS later on; HP still present on Sat 9th but centred on the Baltic and even more intense at 1050mb, keeping the S-lies going

GEM - more like ECM but HP near Baltic is weaker and Atlantic troughs are threatening the W

GEFS - In the S, temps 4 or 5 C above norm to Sat 9th, then drifting lower with less ens agreement and small amounts of rain in a few ens members. In the N, mean temp follows the same trend but with less agreement from ensembles throughout esp in NE and small chance of rain in trivial amounts from Tue 5th (heavier in NW). 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Russwirral
30 October 2024 13:10:07
as much as we are in a dry spell, theres not much evaporation going on with it...
Went running this morning across some fields, and, well my shoes are in soapy water in the sink.  Was like a bog.

We havent had that much rain recently, but everything is wet and claggy.  It feels like January in terms of dampness.

Hopefully a little bit of a breeze and clear skies can help soon.
warrenb
30 October 2024 17:21:08
GFS 12z all the way up to 384 is high pressure. Has the azores high migrated ?
Retron
30 October 2024 17:30:31

as much as we are in a dry spell, theres not much evaporation going on with it...
Went running this morning across some fields, and, well my shoes are in soapy water in the sink.  Was like a bog.

We havent had that much rain recently, but everything is wet and claggy.  It feels like January in terms of dampness.

Hopefully a little bit of a breeze and clear skies can help soon.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Yes, the ground is still soft here as well - albeit there's been some drizzly stuff each day apart from today.

To get things to dry out, wind or not, you'll want lower dewpoints - the dewpoint here, right now, is 12C, and that doesn't help!

The 12z GFS has a brief period of lower dewpoints on Monday, but only for a few hours as another surge of tropical maritime air moves across.



Leysdown, north Kent
Devonian
30 October 2024 17:30:55

GFS 12z all the way up to 384 is high pressure. Has the azores high migrated ?

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


No. But

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