Recent winters have indeed seen their coldest spells early on. And this year will be no exception based on Exeter’s updated Contingency Planners 3 month outlook today:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_ndj_v1.pdf 
Overall winter being cold just 5%!! 
Can’t remember seeing it that poor since its conception. Much higher chance of ‘normal’ (mild) or ‘mild’ (very mild). The only crumb of comfort for me is the absence of particularly windy or wet conditions overall. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

This must be one of the biggest 16 day 850hPa temperature anomalies ever recorded in the UK. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

...

GEFS - soon becoming very mild (5 or 6 C above norm) gradually declining but still above norm by a couple of degrees to 14th Nov. Unusually good ens agreement throughout. Chances of rain minimal, just showing in 1 or 2 runs after Thu 7th.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Annoyingly it is looking like a mostly cloudy high atm. Rock solid HP for the foreseeable though. Probably the longest HP dominated pattern for 2 years.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yeah man, but it’s a dry heat!!

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Which is great news! 

If only it was July. Could have been a momentous heatwave. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

Remarkable to see the ECM ENS probability charts showing the percentage chance of 5mm or more rain falling at t+13 days to be between 0% and 10% in much of the south and east. This could be a very boring spell of weather but if the models are correct it looks like a very notable one too.



Even in the north west of the UK the 850hPa temperature anomaly level and consistency is unusual.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It’s definitely a worrying trend.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

I'm guessing you weren't online in the late 90s, early 2000s, when a whopping great high ended up over the Alps seemingly every winter. The Bartlett high, it was nicknamed (by those on weather forums/newsgroups), and there was a chap on here in the early days who kept going on about the pressure in Berne. Fun times!

It makes a change to see such a settled outlook, and I'm thoroughly enjoying it - makes a change from the usual zonality this time of year. I'm trying not to remind myself though of the old maxim, "be it dry or be it wet, nature always pays her debt". Instead, I'm hoping that the trend we've seen in recent years for patterns to repeat every 6 to 8 weeks kicks in - a long settled spell in winter is well overdue.

Incidentally this high isn't a cold one - yet. The moist Atlantic air is definitely making itself felt, and the dewpoint (14C here) is impressively high for this time of year. The MetO raw does, however, show a characteristic gradual drop in temperatures over the next week, a high of 17 today versus 11 in a week's time, reflecting the fact that the sun is now too weak to warm things up, and instead under stagnant conditions things just get colder and colder. There's a hell of a long way to go though compared to the old days: in the 80s and 90s it wasn't at all unusual to get an air frost for bonfire night, something which seldom happens these days.

It'll be interesting to see how long this can persist and whether, with time, we can pull some drier air in from the continent - that would be the catalyst for clear skies and frosts, but at the moment it looks unlikely.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I remember the 90s too, though I wasn’t part of the forum then. I've been skiing since childhood and always made it a point to head to snow-sure resorts in the Alps—I just love seeing the snow on the ground. I even remember the old BBC ski forecasts in the 90s, and one year, the weatherman finally announced that the stubborn high-pressure system would shift, letting the weather fronts move in just in time for December ski openings.

What really concerns me now, though, is the freezing level sitting well above 3,000 meters. IF the models show a promising cold spell and snowfall in two weeks, we know how forecasts tend to shift five days before the event. But with this setup, I’m almost certain they’ll be spot-on, and I have a gut feeling this pattern might linger into end of Novand  early December.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

That’s encouraging, although I’ve no idea what their success rate is like on these. Mixed I’d imagine at the range of time involved 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I pulled on a pair of skies for the first time since 2016 earlier this month. That said, we're not wedded to the idea of going back to the Alps this winter and I'm also concerned about the snow prospects. We usually (or used to) go to Courchevel 1650.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Zero.
Years of back loaded, front loaded mid loaded garbage. Its a 3 month forecast which updates every few weeks , so makes the 3 month span useless.

As they have gone mild, I now expect some very cold spells.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Zero.
Years of back loaded, front loaded mid loaded garbage. Its a 3 month forecast which updates every few weeks , so makes the 3 month span useless.

As they have gone mild, I now expect some very cold spells.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

as much as we are in a dry spell, theres not much evaporation going on with it...
Went running this morning across some fields, and, well my shoes are in soapy water in the sink.  Was like a bog.

We havent had that much rain recently, but everything is wet and claggy.  It feels like January in terms of dampness.

Hopefully a little bit of a breeze and clear skies can help soon.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

GFS 12z all the way up to 384 is high pressure. Has the azores high migrated ?

Originally Posted by: warrenb