theweatheroutlook

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ozone_aurora
Friday, November 1, 2024 3:01:49 PM

Amazing consistency in recent days from GEFS and ECM ENS. 
Someone on X (I think) mentioned similarities with October - November 1988. Reanalysis charts from here

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, that was followed by a very mild winter; I seem to recall December being dry and quite calm overall, January was very mild and dry, and quite sunny in the S and E, February started very mild, with a good deal of sunshine on lee side of mountains, but turned colder, unsettled and wet from early/mid month, but temperatures were actually still near normal to mildish side.

However, there was a cold wintry snap in late November 1988 when some snow fell in many northern and eastern areas. Next significant cold wintry spell (away from the far N) was in early April 1989! 
+1
White Meadows
Friday, November 1, 2024 3:47:22 PM

Any idea what of kind of loaded winter we will get apart from the usual b.s loaded one?

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


Hopefully a Spring loaded one 😅
On a serious note, Exeter’s 3 month Cont. Planner outlook released a few days ago suggests a colder Nov-December period in comparison to the 3 months including Jan overall. 

Westerly, Atlantic setups are expected to dominate from late for the rest of winter in summary. 
Wind speeds expected to be around normal for the time of year. 

coldies may take comfort in that last years front loaded turned into mid loaded. 

Details here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_ndj_v2.pdf


White Meadows
Saturday, November 2, 2024 7:06:37 AM
Late month cool down showing it’s hand?
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 
This would chime with Exeters front loaded winter/ backloaded autumn/ mid loaded pre Christmas loadings. 


DEW
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Saturday, November 2, 2024 8:43:14 AM
WX temps show the area of cold air over NE Russia consolidating and in week 2 beginning to spread its influence into Europe with freezing conditions appearing over the Alps, while the mild weather around Biscay & Iberia retreats S-wards. Britain and France above norm to start with but cooling in week 2. Very dry from Turkey to Britain in week1, but an area of heavy rain develops in the Tyrrhenian Sea in week 2, and also the N Atlantic begins to get wetter. Britain loses the very dry weather but becomes damp rather than wet.

GFS Op - HP persists over or just to the east of Britain until Thu 14th but with Atlantic LP close enough to produce S-ly gales at times in the west esp Fri 8th. From Fri 15th HP is positioned either side of Britain but at a distance with a shallow LP running S from Iceland reaching Cornwall 1005mb Sat 16th and becoming established as an extended trough Portugal - N Sea - Norway.

ECM - like GFS but with an extra dose of S-ly gales for the NW Sun 10th

GEM - like GFS but S-lies less strong as LP is further off on the Atlantic

GEFS - [not loading on TWO today so shorter summary from Wetterzentrale] - temps very mild at first slowly declining to norm around Fri 15th with good ens agreement until about Fri 8th; by end of run a wide variation. Rain in various ens members for most of Britain from Fri 8th but not consistent and some runs remain dry, however more likely than shown yesterday and quite heavy and persistent in the far NW
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+7
Sasa
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Saturday, November 2, 2024 9:28:37 AM

WX temps show the area of cold air over NE Russia consolidating and in week 2 beginning to spread its influence into Europe with freezing conditions appearing over the Alps, while the mild weather around Biscay & Iberia retreats S-wards. Britain and France above norm to start with but cooling in week 2. Very dry from Turkey to Britain in week1, but an area of heavy rain develops in the Tyrrhenian Sea in week 2, and also the N Atlantic begins to get wetter. Britain loses the very dry weather but becomes damp rather than wet.

GFS Op - HP persists over or just to the east of Britain until Thu 14th but with Atlantic LP close enough to produce S-ly gales at times in the west esp Fri 8th. From Fri 15th HP is positioned either side of Britain but at a distance with a shallow LP running S from Iceland reaching Cornwall 1005mb Sat 16th and becoming established as an extended trough Portugal - N Sea - Norway.

ECM - like GFS but with an extra dose of S-ly gales for the NW Sun 10th

GEM - like GFS but S-lies less strong as LP is further off on the Atlantic

GEFS - [not loading on TWO today so shorter summary from Wetterzentrale] - temps very mild at first slowly declining to norm around Fri 15th with good ens agreement until about Fri 8th; by end of run a wide variation. Rain in various ens members for most of Britain from Fri 8th but not consistent and some runs remain dry, however more likely than shown yesterday and quite heavy and persistent in the far NW

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Tentative signs of pattern change for the second half of Nov.
Kingston Upon Thames
fairweather
Saturday, November 2, 2024 6:07:23 PM
It's finally, after a week, dawned on the BBC presenters that we have high pressure gloom. So not the short term optimism for the promised warmth and sunny periods to come or at least not till later in the week.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Jiries
Saturday, November 2, 2024 6:40:56 PM

It's finally, after a week, dawned on the BBC presenters that we have high pressure gloom. So not the short term optimism for the promised warmth and sunny periods to come or at least not till later in the week.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Won’t happen at all until this HP sod off and now well outstayed it welcome. It really polluted skies more yellow dirty clouds.   Never like any HP at all and no use to this country forever cloudy climate anyway.
Col
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Saturday, November 2, 2024 8:01:47 PM
I'd rather have quiet & benign cloudy conditions (boring as they might well be) than endless wind & rain. Spend an autumn/winter in NW England and you will know what I am talking about.
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
+5
DEW
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Sunday, November 3, 2024 8:49:36 AM
WX temp forecasts are getting monotonous - as for the last few days they show the area of cold air over NE Russia consolidating and in week 2 beginning to spread its influence into Europe while the mild weather around Biscay & Iberia retreats S-wards. Britain and France around the norm. Very dry from Turkey to Britain in week 1, but an area of heavy rain develops in the Tyrrhenian Sea in week 2, and also the N Atlantic begins to get wetter. However, unlike yesterday's forecast, Britain remains dry into week 2.

GFS Op - HP continuing to dominate British weather, with the centre moving E-wards to Europe by Sun 10th but still just strong enough to keep Atlantic fronts at bay (possibly excepting the far NW; S-ly winds for most). Then it returns and is centred over Britain through to Sun 17th, at that stage beginning to weaken and move SE-wards. [Note - TWO chart viewer is stuck on Saturday's download]

ECM - As GFS, though an Atlantic LP does get rather close to the Hebrides Sun 10th

GEM - like GFS

GEFS - temps steadily declining from the current very mild to near norm Tue 19th, good ens agreement until Sun 10th but wide divergence for the north after that. Rain in small amounts showing up in a few runs after Sun 10th
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
ozone_aurora
Sunday, November 3, 2024 10:01:59 AM

I'd rather have quiet & benign cloudy conditions (boring as they might well be) than endless wind & rain. Spend an autumn/winter in NW England and you will know what I am talking about.

Originally Posted by: Col 


Yes, I too much prefer quiet & benign cloudy conditions than wet and windy conditions. It's good for walking and exercising, and working outdoors. I probably prefer it in mid winter, as I feel this current conditions could mean a wet and windy winter - gales are usually worse in January and February than in November.
Sasa
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Sunday, November 3, 2024 1:06:16 PM
Here are some promising signals from the 6am GFS run for mid-November onward. Unfortunately, I expect these to fade as we move into the more reliable forecast range, but it'll be interesting to see where the high-pressure system ultimately settles.




Kingston Upon Thames
DEW
  • DEW
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Sunday, November 3, 2024 1:41:41 PM
For this coming week, with the winds swinging into the south, somewhere in the lee of high ground (N Wales?) stands the chance of a date record from a combination of the Fohn effect plus sunshine. 20C is the target for most dates:
Day 6th/7/8/9/10/11/12 and corresponding date records (C)
19.8/20,.2/ 19.1/18.6/18.9/ 19.5/19.1

It's time the date record for the 8th got broken; it's stood since 1881 (Alston, Cumbria)
https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
johncs2016
Sunday, November 3, 2024 2:35:27 PM

For this coming week, with the winds swinging into the south, somewhere in the lee of high ground (N Wales?) stands the chance of a date record from a combination of the Fohn effect plus sunshine. 20C is the target for most dates:
Day 6th/7/8/9/10/11/12 and corresponding date records (C)
19.8/20,.2/ 19.1/18.6/18.9/ 19.5/19.1

It's time the date record for the 8th got broken; it's stood since 1881 (Alston, Cumbria)
https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


No thanks!!

We get far too many date records broken these days which are on the warm side and so if any date records are to be broken, I would rather those be cold date records rather than warm ones.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+1
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, November 3, 2024 3:07:28 PM

No thanks!!

We get far too many date records broken these days which are on the warm side and so if any date records are to be broken, I would rather those be cold date records rather than warm ones.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 




I agree, and if we end up with an unusually mild winter, I tend to think there’s a price to pay come spring, when I'm hoping for some real warmth and sunshine. Here, it's been absolutely dreadful—completely gray skies with no sunlight for over a week. It’s miserable, and I can't wait for the high-pressure system to shift. From what I’m seeing, it might either head toward our northwest or Scandinavia.

Honestly, I'd much prefer a return to classic UK weather, like this:

Clear, blue skies at sunrise
Clouds building from around 8:30 a.m.
Rain or showers by 11 a.m.
Showers and sunny spells in the afternoon, ending with a starry night
and so on
Kingston Upon Thames
+1
Rob K
Sunday, November 3, 2024 4:52:41 PM

Hopefully a Spring loaded one 😅
On a serious note, Exeter’s 3 month Cont. Planner outlook released a few days ago suggests a colder Nov-December period in comparison to the 3 months including Jan overall. 

Westerly, Atlantic setups are expected to dominate from late for the rest of winter in summary. 
Wind speeds expected to be around normal for the time of year. 

coldies may take comfort in that last years front loaded turned into mid loaded. 

Details here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_ndj_v2.pdf

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Wasn't last winter loaded with blanks?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Retron
Sunday, November 3, 2024 6:24:13 PM

Wasn't last winter loaded with blanks?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Down here last winter was a whole week in January. Hopefully next winter will be longer!

Talking of which, the 12z GFS op is fun today. Our wobbling high moves away in FI and a lobe of the polar vortex sets up shop over the UK. Lots of wind, rain, sleet and - for the mountains - snow.

The reason I mention this is it's a great time to remind people that the GFS charts show snow if as little as one snowflake amongst the rain is modelled - or at least the ones on Meteociel do. (UKV and similar models are the ones to look for in terms of snow, as they have a "pure snow" versus "sleet" parameter.)
Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Monday, November 4, 2024 8:05:26 AM
Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow / Creeps in this petty pace from day to day... who knew Shakespeare could forecast the weather! Again as for the last few days WX shows the area of cold air over NE Russia consolidating and in week 2 intensifying & beginning to spread its influence into Europe while the mild weather around Biscay & Iberia continues to retreat S-wards. W Europe above norm, E Europe close to it. Very dry from Turkey to Britain in week 1, but an area of heavy rain develops in the Tyrrhenian Sea in week 2, and also the N Atlantic begins to get wetter. However, unlike yesterday's forecast, Britain becomes damp, even wet in the far west.

GFS Op - HP continues to be the principal influence for British weather for the next 10 days or so, contesting control over the extreme west with Atlantic LP around Thu 7th/Fri 8th with consequent strong S-lies; but reviving later to be centred over Britain Tue 11th 1040mb. It finally declines and moves SE-wards Sat 16th and eventually LP traverses Scotland Tue 19th with brief N-lies behind (the N-lies are strongest for Scandinavia - last night's direct and dramatic plunge over Britain has been written out). 

ECM - very much like GFS

GEM - like GFS but less Atlantic influence 7th/8th

GEFS - maintaining temps 4 or 5C above norm with good ens agreement to Thu 13th. After that, the mean declines to norm but little agreement between runs. Chance of rain noticeable from Sat 16th but by no means certain in the S, rather more likely and heavier in the NW where there is an extra spike on Sat 9th
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Brian Gaze
Monday, November 4, 2024 9:47:59 AM
GFS hourly stepped charts out to t+120 are available with a login here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs-hourly.aspx 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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ballamar
Monday, November 4, 2024 11:22:30 AM
First op run tease with snow through the spine of the country - HP does seem to want to introduce some chillier conditions 
The Beast from the East
Monday, November 4, 2024 11:22:32 AM
Sun has finally come out! Yippee. Lets hope its the last of this dirty high. Remarkable spell of settled and dry weather for the time of year though
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Hippydave
Monday, November 4, 2024 11:53:53 AM
Must admit I'm finding the current bland mostly dry HP stuff pretty boring, although the (mostly) lack of rain has at least meant being able to get a few outdoors bits done in comfort. 
It'll be interesting to see how long HP manages to dictate our weather - the charts are suggesting 'quite a while', which would be unusual in the context of recent autumns (NW looks to have more of an atlantic influence from time to time as you'd expect). Whether this current spell ends up a blip in an otherwise atlantic dominated autumn and winter remains to be seen - there's not been a lot of quiet HP interludes over recent autumns or winters from memory, but the few HP spells that have cropped up have generally been followed by weeks of wet and windy stuff, which would seem to be the form horse although not signalled in the models currently. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Rob K
Monday, November 4, 2024 12:29:34 PM

Sun has finally come out! Yippee. Lets hope its the last of this dirty high. Remarkable spell of settled and dry weather for the time of year though

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


No sun here, or over much of the country. I think the gloom is set in for the rest of the week for many of us.

Still, GFS has a nice dump of snow in two weeks' time. Nailed on!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
Monday, November 4, 2024 12:37:51 PM

No sun here, or over much of the country. I think the gloom is set in for the rest of the week for many of us.

Still, GFS has a nice dump of snow in two weeks' time. Nailed on!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Bit of hazy sunshine struggling to make an appearance here. GFS looks keen to push that high west of Ireland. Hopefully we will know bit more by the next weekend
Kingston Upon Thames
Saint Snow
Monday, November 4, 2024 12:43:33 PM

Must admit I'm finding the current bland mostly dry HP stuff pretty boring,

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 




I've loved this spell.

There's something atmospheric about late-autumn gloom.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
Monday, November 4, 2024 1:48:55 PM

First op run tease with snow through the spine of the country - HP does seem to want to introduce some chillier conditions 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Yep the first interesting Op of the season.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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