WX temps - progressive changes from week 1 (above norm in W Europe , cool for Russia, warm around coasts of Spain) to a situation in week 2 in which cold, even really cold, air is piling up over Russia and beginning to spill into E  Europe. Still warm for Mediterranean coasts but this warmth retreating from SW Britain and Biscay. Very dry for Europe in week 1 except the far north - the dry area shrinking E-wards in week 2 (more so than shown yesterday, just still affecting SE Britain) with rain appearing for Ireland and W Scotland as well as S France.

GFS Op - HP close to or over Britain to  Thu 14th ridging to the SE for most of the time, some close approaches to W Britain from Atlantic troughs around Tue 5th. Then the HP suddenly splits into two parts, one over W Russia, one over the Azores and by Sat 16th a large but shallow area of LP covers Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS but by Sun 10th HP has drifted S-wards to Biscay and Britain is under SW-lies.

GEM - like ECM

GEFS - mean temp staying well above norm (say 6C at max) to Sat 16th , good ens agreement to Sat 9th but quite wide divergence in the N later on; only a little rain and that scattered over only a few runs - after Tue 12th in the SE, after Thu 7th in the N & W. [Op run temp for Plymouth shows an improbable 14C above norm on the 14th!]

Originally Posted by: DEW 

And back to square one with the 6z GFS. High pressure completely dominant.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Finally, the first signs of a shift are appearing on the horizon, hinting at a possible change in the pattern and a potential displacement of the high-pressure system for the latter half of November. Although it’s still quite far down the line, it’s clear that the current trend can’t persist for ever.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Finally? What have we had, like one dry day so far lol 🤣 

The longer its stays bone dry and mild the better as far as I’m concerned. Keep this until March please, and then bring back that proper warmth 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

It's refusing to budge. It occasionally shows signs of sinking southeast or drifting westward, but each time it just rebuilds and strengthens again.

Really boring

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Matty,

While I agree with you, I'm really hoping for some heavy snow in the French Alps by mid-December. Purely selfish reasons, of course, but so far, it's been unseasonably mild—seems more like daffodil-picking weather than skiing!

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

where did the weekend ‘plunge’ in temperatures go for Scotland? 14 now? positively balmy

Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Finally? What have we had, like one dry day so far lol 🤣 

The longer its stays bone dry and mild the better as far as I’m concerned. Keep this until March please, and then bring back that proper warmth 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Amazing consistency in recent days from GEFS and ECM ENS. 
Someone on X (I think) mentioned similarities with October - November 1988. Reanalysis charts from here

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It showed 10C  max here for Saturday now that's Monday and Tuesday.
Signs are there for a significant cold plunge around mid-month with air originating in Siberia, if that happens widespread snow is likely, at least in northern half. Apparently snow is now impossible in southern England due to UHI presumably..

Originally Posted by: four 

Dry, stable weather looks set to persist well into mid-November. Although models briefly suggested a woble or a shift in the pattern, it now appears any change has been delayed to later in the month. It raises the question: could this dry trend extend into December as well?

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

I see fake 20 next Friday here in the midlands? Idiot app going for those with 10 days of no sun so seeing 20 without sun will not happen at all most likely low 10s. Highest I recorded was 19 in Epsom under wall to wall FULL sun. Who ever issue 20 frankly massive idiot one. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries