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Joe Bloggs
08 November 2024 10:44:52
Expectations are so low for this upcoming winter period with the vast majority of long range model output suggesting a positive NAO and very mild weather.
It’s interesting to see therefore that there are some signs of Greenland blocking already as we head towards the end of November. Poetic. 🤣 Like Matty says it would be nice to see some actual brightness and sunshine. 
Anyway the trend is obvious on the GFS ensemble. 
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Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Brian Gaze
08 November 2024 12:09:49
Back again on the GFS 06Z, albeit short lived.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Taylor1740
08 November 2024 14:20:20

Expectations are so low for this upcoming winter period with the vast majority of long range model output suggesting a positive NAO and very mild weather.
It’s interesting to see therefore that there are some signs of Greenland blocking already as we head towards the end of November. Poetic. 🤣 Like Matty says it would be nice to see some actual brightness and sunshine. 
Anyway the trend is obvious on the GFS ensemble. 
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Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Yes I've never known a winter look so nailed on to be extremely mild as this one. Would be surprised if it isn't top 5 warmest but we'll see if the weather surprises us.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Retron
08 November 2024 17:03:17
The 12z GFS today serves up a classic west-based NAO, the sort of thing that brings very unsettled weather for us, mild wet and windy.
This is, of course, a very familiar pattern in recent years. We see what looks like a northerly plunge, and one of two things happens - either the plunge passes to the east, clipping Scotland, or the plunge spins up a low to the west and bam, west-based NAO.
At least we're not in the heart of winter, so it's all academic at this time of year...
Leysdown, north Kent
David M Porter
08 November 2024 18:02:16

IIRC that cold period was triggered by a SSW and was well signalled ahead of the event.  I’ve been looking at the 10hPa wind forecast charts and they don’t show anything particularly unusual at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Hi Peter,

Your memory must be better than mine in this instance, as until I read your post I had no recollection of there being a SSW ahead of the freeze that started in the last few days of November 2010. I do recall that the models picked up on this at the pretty early stage and the cross-model agreement and run-to-run consistency were very high in the lead-up to the start of that freeze.

Do you or anyone else here recall if there was also a SSW in November/December 2009 before the freeze that began shortly before Christmas that year? From what I recall, the pressure set-up at the end of 2009 was almost the exact same as what was in place at the end of the following year and also as with 2010, there was excellent cross-model agreement and run-to-run consistency for a good couple of weeks before the freeze began.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
08 November 2024 18:04:32

The 12z GFS today serves up a classic west-based NAO, the sort of thing that brings very unsettled weather for us, mild wet and windy.
This is, of course, a very familiar pattern in recent years. We see what looks like a northerly plunge, and one of two things happens - either the plunge passes to the east, clipping Scotland, or the plunge spins up a low to the west and bam, west-based NAO.
At least we're not in the heart of winter, so it's all academic at this time of year...

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Like you I have given up on snow and proper cold here. For as long as this 2 day northerly produces snow in the French Alps in time for mid december I will be happy
Kingston Upon Thames
Retron
08 November 2024 18:30:58

Hi Peter,

Your memory must be better than mine in this instance, as until I read your post I had no recollection of there being a SSW ahead of the freeze that started in the last few days of November 2010. I do recall that the models picked up on this at the pretty early stage and the cross-model agreement and run-to-run consistency were very high in the lead-up to the start of that freeze.

Do you or anyone else here recall if there was also a SSW in November/December 2009 before the freeze that began shortly before Christmas that year

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


The reason you can't recall one is that there wasn't one. Much like the cornucopia in the Fruit of the Loom logo, in fact!

Here's a list of SSWs - others are available, but none will show an SSW in late 2010.

https://www.en.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de/~Thomas.Birner/ssw.html 
Leysdown, north Kent
Windy Willow
08 November 2024 18:50:08
If I am recalling correctly, I thought the end of November snow in 2010 was down to the jet performing some unusual acrobatics by picking up a load of cold air and firing it our direction, from the east.
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
White Meadows
08 November 2024 22:39:46
You are correct, neither 2009 or 2010 cold spells were triggered by a SSW event. More so a good old fashioned enormous Greenland HP. 
Gandalf The White
08 November 2024 22:59:44

You are correct, neither 2009 or 2010 cold spells were triggered by a SSW event. More so a good old fashioned enormous Greenland HP. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Whatever it was, the signal for the cold weather was picked up by the Met Office a long way ahead, much more than just looking at the normal models.  I recall Retron commenting on this and highlighting that there were two successive strong bursts of WAA that established the significant upper blocking high towards Greenland and buckled the jet.  You can see the evolution in the archive charts.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Joe Bloggs
09 November 2024 07:25:33
Very chilly ECM det run this morning. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Jiries
09 November 2024 07:39:21

Very chilly ECM det run this morning. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Good mean more chance to see some actual weather and sun at anytime. 
nsrobins
09 November 2024 07:51:42
There isn’t a cat in hell’s chance I’m going to be suckered in by the vagaries of any model output or get embroiled in the swings and roundabouts and false dawns that is the funfair of model watching in winter.
Having reeled-off that string of idioms however, it is actually quite interesting 🧐 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 November 2024 07:52:06
WX temps - the block of cold / freezing weather out to the east is still there and approaching Poland in week 2, throwing forward streamers over the Alps; but maybe not so intrusive as yesterday with most of W Europe including Britain slightly above norm in week 1and only cooling a little in week 2. Most of Europe, bar Spain and the W Mediterranean, dry in week 1, rain band developing down the N Sea and into France in week 2, also some in Italy and E Europe.

GFS Op - Mainly HP for the coming week, though a weak trough moves across the north tomorrow, Sunday, before the HP establishes W of Ireland. From Sun 17th LP takes over with centres N & S of Britain forming a trough over the country and by Wed moving W to become an LP 1000mb Holland. This continues to move away and by Mon 25th Britain is in a run of NW-lies between HP in Biscay and LP in Finland.

ECM - the breakdown of HP begins a day earlier, on Sat 16th, and takes the form of a dominant LP 975 mb Norway projecting N-lies across Britain , and  then including a secondary depression 985mb Clyde Tue 19th in the general cold flow (looks quite snowy for the Highlands)

GEM - More like ECM in timing and pressure distribution though the N-ly plunge is diverted to the N Sea and held E of Britain

GEFS - temps soon dropping to norm and mean then becoming a little colder from Sun 17th. Poor agreement between ens members; op  and control suggesting a milder spell than mean about Fri 15th, then colder about Tue 19th, this variation more marked in the north. Bits and pieces of rain here and there, becoming more widespread in more (but not all) runs from Tue 19th. Inverness snow row values in double figures from this date.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
09 November 2024 08:22:54

There isn’t a cat in hell’s chance I’m going to be suckered in by the vagaries of any model output or get embroiled in the swings and roundabouts and false dawns that is the funfair of model watching in winter.
Having reeled-off that string of idioms however, it is actually quite interesting 🧐 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


😂
In the words of a certain cyborg race from a TV series, “Resistance is futile”.  😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
09 November 2024 10:24:19
Another interesting run, this time from  the 06z GFS 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_186_1.png 
UserPostedImage
Ally Pally Snowman
09 November 2024 10:30:46

Another interesting run, this time from  the 06z GFS 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_186_1.png 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It's turning into a beauty of a run. Best of the season so far. 2010 esque. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 November 2024 10:37:22
Incredible run , maybe just 3 weeks to early for significant snow down here.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
09 November 2024 10:52:02
As with most forecast northerlies, how long before it goes pete tong!
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
09 November 2024 10:52:26
Well the GFS 6z is about as cold and snowy as a November run gets in the UK.
🥶🥶🥶❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 November 2024 10:53:43

As with most forecast northerlies, how long before it goes pete tong!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


6 hrs 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
09 November 2024 10:57:44

6 hrs 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


At least it will be sunny first thing in the morning
Kingston Upon Thames
ballamar
09 November 2024 10:59:52

Well the GFS 6z is about as cold and snowy as a November run gets in the UK.
🥶🥶🥶❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Must be early pub lunch
Joe Bloggs
09 November 2024 11:10:54

There isn’t a cat in hell’s chance I’m going to be suckered in by the vagaries of any model output or get embroiled in the swings and roundabouts and false dawns that is the funfair of model watching in winter.
Having reeled-off that string of idioms however, it is actually quite interesting 🧐 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Wouldn’t it be absolutely hilarious though? 
Virtually every single long range analysis chart suggests mild if not very mild weather for winter with low pressure ploughing across the Atlantic - dominant over Greenland and Iceland with an Azores High ridging across mainland Europe. 
Is it time for the law of sod to make an appearance? We could all do with a laugh. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gandalf The White
09 November 2024 12:31:08

Wouldn’t it be absolutely hilarious though? 
Virtually every single long range analysis chart suggests mild if not very mild weather for winter with low pressure ploughing across the Atlantic - dominant over Greenland and Iceland with an Azores High ridging across mainland Europe. 
Is it time for the law of sod to make an appearance? We could all do with a laugh. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


The interplay between the seasonal forecasts and the global models is interesting in the sense that the seasonal ones look at the broad signals and express the forecasts solely in probability terms.  Since they never say there’s a zero percentage chance there’s always scope for something that overrides the broader signals.  Plus, of course, we all latch on to the headline messages, e.g. “a mild or very mild winter is favoured”.

I’ll remember to laugh as I watch the heating bill shoot up and as I’m scraping the car…… 😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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