WX temps - becoming colder everywhere. Week 1 shows temps a little below norm for most of NW Europe, and then in week 2 a large mass of freezing air or only one isotherm up from that moves in from Russia, reaching everywhere in NW Europe except France, and S Britain, not that these are particularly mild. Rain for N Atlantic down into Germany week1, heavier and affecting Britain down to the Alps in week 2 _and much of it will be snow)
GFS Op - the current HP finally moves off into the Atlantic on Sat 16th allowing a deep LP 975mb C Norway to start sending N-lies across Britain. A secondary dragged into this off the Atlantic brings stormy weather and likely snow for higher ground in the north 975mb E Anglia Tue 19th. The N-lies then resume but another S-ly tracking LP 990mb Channel Thu 21st implies more pptn but not quite as cold as the first one. The main LP moves away from Norway E-wards to Russia and there is then more activity and milder weather from the Atlantic, introduced by LPs 990mb Mon 25th Ireland and a larger area of LP 985mb Rockall Sat 30th (at which time there is a dartboard low sitting in mid-Atlantic)
ECM - the N-lies are less directly from the Arctic than in GFS and tend to be NW-lies at times. The LP Tue 19th is present (985mb Wales) which deepens, generating its coldest flow on the 21st, moving to the N Sea and finally merging with the main LP over Norway, with winds definitely NW-ly by Sat 23rd. The other LP shown by GFS on Thu 21st does not appear.
GEM - agrees with GFS but brings back the Atlantic a day or two earlier, Sat 23rd, only for this Atlantic LP to combine with LP still over Norway and promptly bring back the N-lies by the end of the weekend
GEFS- temps dropping to 6 or 7C below norm from Sun 17th for a week; then one by one the ens members get milder and by Tue 26th are mostly back above norm (a very few ens members cut the cold spell short, and conversely a very few prolong it, these mostly in the N). A lot of rain/snow everywhere from 17th - expect floods in the south by 24th. Snow row figures not as dramatically high as one might think for most of Britain - typically low teens (out of 33) for lowland stations around the 19th, but unusually these figures also appear all the way south to the Channel.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl