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White Meadows
13 November 2024 21:08:13

There was a fair bit of snow in Nov 2017 if I remember correct, which constantly melted and refroze to form one of the most horrific and prolonged black ice episodes I've ever seen.  An ugly mess that I see happening again this time around. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Sounds a bit like this place, when tensions run high. 

On another note, where’s Moomin? 
Chunky Pea
13 November 2024 22:18:29
This EC map for day 15 suggests a possibly very mild end to November:

UserPostedImage
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Jiries
14 November 2024 06:38:50
Snow chances increased from what I read there and app also show snow 2 days early next week. Looking like a proper cold week after a prolonged gloom which seem always deliver snowy spells later. 
Ally Pally Snowman
14 November 2024 06:48:50

Snow chances increased from what I read there and app also show snow 2 days early next week. Looking like a proper cold week after a prolonged gloom which seem always deliver snowy spells later. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Both GFS and ECM this morning have huge snow events for the North England next Tuesday.  Hopefully personally the low goes further south. They often do.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 November 2024 07:50:24
WX temps - becoming colder everywhere. Week 1 shows temps a little below norm for most of NW Europe, and then in week 2 a large mass of freezing air or only one isotherm up from that moves in from Russia, reaching everywhere in NW Europe except France, and S Britain, not that these are particularly mild. Rain for N Atlantic down into Germany week1, heavier and affecting Britain down to the Alps in week 2 _and much of it will be snow)

GFS Op - the current HP finally moves off into the Atlantic on Sat 16th allowing a deep LP 975mb C Norway to start sending N-lies across Britain. A secondary dragged into this off the Atlantic brings stormy weather and likely snow for higher ground in the north 975mb E Anglia  Tue 19th. The N-lies then resume but another S-ly tracking LP 990mb Channel Thu 21st implies more pptn but not quite as cold as the first one. The main LP moves away from Norway E-wards to Russia and there is then more activity and milder weather from the Atlantic, introduced by LPs 990mb Mon 25th Ireland and a larger area of LP 985mb Rockall Sat 30th (at which time there is a dartboard low sitting in mid-Atlantic)

ECM - the N-lies are less directly from the Arctic than in GFS and tend to be NW-lies at times. The LP Tue 19th is present (985mb Wales) which deepens, generating its coldest flow on the 21st, moving to the N Sea and finally merging with the main LP over Norway, with winds definitely NW-ly by Sat 23rd. The other LP shown by GFS on Thu 21st does not appear.

GEM - agrees with GFS but brings back the Atlantic a day or two earlier, Sat 23rd, only for this Atlantic LP to combine with LP still over Norway and promptly bring back the N-lies by the end of the weekend

GEFS- temps dropping to 6 or 7C below norm from Sun 17th for a week; then one by one the ens members get milder and by Tue 26th are mostly back above norm (a very few ens members cut the cold spell short, and conversely a very few prolong it, these mostly in the N). A lot of rain/snow everywhere from 17th - expect floods in the south by 24th. Snow row figures not as dramatically high as one might think for most of Britain - typically low teens (out of 33) for lowland stations around the 19th, but unusually these figures also appear all the way south to the Channel.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
moomin75
14 November 2024 08:29:38

Sounds a bit like this place, when tensions run high. 

On another note, where’s Moomin? 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I'm here. Watching quietly on. 
I haven't had much time to post here recently. 
Probably a relief for many of you, but my dad has been diagnosed with cancer and I'm back and forth to hospital with him a lot, so haven't had a huge amount of time to post here.
Safe to say, though, this early cold spell is fascinating model watching, and the atmosphere seems to be in a different "mood" this year to previous ones; so hopefully over the next few months everyone will be in the game.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
14 November 2024 08:33:42
Looks potentially a wet end to November in the south. That's quite encouraging from my point of view because at least it suggests heights to the south may not be locking in. 

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
14 November 2024 08:54:45
ECM not without interesting in the longer term.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
14 November 2024 09:29:27

I'm here. Watching quietly on. 
I haven't had much time to post here recently. 
Probably a relief for many of you, but my dad has been diagnosed with cancer and I'm back and forth to hospital with him a lot, so haven't had a huge amount of time to post here.
Safe to say, though, this early cold spell is fascinating model watching, and the atmosphere seems to be in a different "mood" this year to previous ones; so hopefully over the next few months everyone will be in the game.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Sorry to hear about your dad, mate. Hope he recovers.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
14 November 2024 09:44:03

I'm here. Watching quietly on. 
I haven't had much time to post here recently. 
Probably a relief for many of you, but my dad has been diagnosed with cancer and I'm back and forth to hospital with him a lot, so haven't had a huge amount of time to post here.
Safe to say, though, this early cold spell is fascinating model watching, and the atmosphere seems to be in a different "mood" this year to previous ones; so hopefully over the next few months everyone will be in the game.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Best wishes to your Dad.
I hope you're right about something different this year
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
14 November 2024 09:47:21

Looks potentially a wet end to November in the south. That's quite encouraging from my point of view because at least it suggests heights to the south may not be locking in. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


At the same time we dont want to end up in the Spanish situation displaced further north. Lows crashing into the south and cyclogenisis generating large rainfall 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Whiteout
14 November 2024 10:12:44
Have to say Tuesday's LP is going to be a classic forecasting nightmare, somewhere is going to get plastered.
IMBY rather looking forward to the wind direction as do very well in a cold NW flow.
Next week is looking fascinating for sure.
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
nsrobins
14 November 2024 10:19:59
And as if to illustrate the uncertainty Tues shortwave is shallower and 100miles further south on the 06Z GFS DET.
I might get a bit involved in these shenanigans as I’m in Leicester Tuesday and then Edinburgh from Weds for work. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whiteout
14 November 2024 10:35:40
Cor, the 06z run is a corker!
A fabled channel Low Neil 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
bowser
14 November 2024 10:36:05
A bit more blocked further out on this run. 
Whiteout
14 November 2024 10:38:53
As mentioned yesterday, the Met updates have been improving all the time, today's could be very telling. Surely the risk of a snow event affecting populated areas must be changed from low risk?
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
nsrobins
14 November 2024 10:48:39

Cor, the 06z run is a corker!
A fabled channel Low Neil 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


I hadn’t noticed 😂😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
14 November 2024 10:51:08

Cor, the 06z run is a corker!
A fabled channel Low Neil 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


I was going to say "south of the M4 largely misses out" but then I kept watching!

That characteristic squashed flat shape of the isobars through the Channel reminds me of charts from late Dec 1978 although that was a deeper low. https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-12-31-0-0.png
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
14 November 2024 11:01:52
Short ENS (London) show even the new 06Z Tues shortwave solution is further North than many of the suite which take it across the far south.
Many tweaks, twists, turns and tribulations to yet I feel.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Hippydave
14 November 2024 11:49:39
Another GFS run with a big push of mild air at the end of the run and long fetch south westerlies I see.

Tee hee and all that, just kidding, happily there's a lot more of interest in the charts than desperately reviewing deepest FI for glimmers of hope and it's nice that it's a case of having to scour FI for signs of mild returning.

Must admit I'm a little ambivalent about the upcoming colder weather - the charts look nice and *if* they verify reasonably close to what some of the runs have shown there's likely to be some decent falls of snow for some but IMBY I do struggle to get excited with not overly cold northerly flows in November. By which I mean the 850s are low but not that low down here and moderation from sea etc. usually mean maxes of 4-6c outside of organised precip in my little bit of the UK although if the pattern persists for long enough you'd expect temps to drop away even in the far south.  Hopefully we'll get some crisp weather out of this though and if we do get lucky with any LPs rolling through as per the 6z op, then I'll take it as a very pleasant bonus, transient though it might end up being. 

Leaving aside my IMBY rubbish there's no denying that the projected general pattern is a cold one for late November and it is very likely to lead to notably cold weather for some folks for the time of year. As it's starting to look unstable, forecasting depth of cold and snow is a bit of a gamble outside of the usual 36-48 hour window IMO but unless the models backtrack then somewhere is quite likely to get a decent drop of snow. Those LPs rolling through are very much high risk/high reward set ups - a tweak south and not a lot happens outside of wintry showers for prone areas and a tweak north and milder air gets pulled over larger chunks of the country and the pattern fizzles out. The LPs do also have to act in a way to stop HP re-establishing south so small changes in track can have disproportionately large impacts. 

As it stands though, a colder spell is looking very likely and there's the potential for it to be snowy for some, which is a welcome place to be heading in winter. I don't think we're past the risk of a few small tweaks collapsing the pattern to one of transient interest to the North only, so will stay in interested but pessimistic mode for a few days yet. Others I'm sure will have a more optimistic and less IMBY view of things!

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Ally Pally Snowman
14 November 2024 12:09:44
GFS 6z once again the Coldies friend,  an absolute beauty of a run . My patch has snow on the ground from 19th to 30th. Lol.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
14 November 2024 12:10:17
Is the ECMWF on WetterZ now running out to 360hrs permanently now or is this just a glitched run?
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=ecm&lid=OP 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Ally Pally Snowman
14 November 2024 12:43:09

Is the ECMWF on WetterZ now running out to 360hrs permanently now or is this just a glitched run?
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=ecm&lid=OP 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Yes it started yesterday.  Slightly discombobulating for us weather nerds. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
14 November 2024 12:46:50

I was going to say "south of the M4 largely misses out" but then I kept watching!

That characteristic squashed flat shape of the isobars through the Channel reminds me of charts from late Dec 1978 although that was a deeper low. https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-12-31-0-0.png

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I was just about to post I wonder who will be the first to mention the M4 corridor this winter. You win! 😀
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
14 November 2024 12:52:17

Is the ECMWF on WetterZ now running out to 360hrs permanently now or is this just a glitched run?
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=ecm&lid=OP 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



I discussed it yesterday. See 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1609749-Model-Output-Discussion 


It's on TWO here out to t+360:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=00&charthour=0&chartname=gh_na&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=500hPa%20/%20MSLP 




Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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