Thanks Gavin

The way in which GFS shows a breakdown on most runs is via a trough from the S or SW bringing an explosive end to the hot conditions. It's not the sort of thing that you'd tend to place bets on is it?

The very flat jet of early 00z op run FI is gone on the 06z op run for that period, which is a relief. It's still a very strong jet being modelled though - I'm not convinced it will turn out to be so intense.

If something like the 06z GFS op run verifies, this month could well end up being legend - wait for it - dary!

Very nice indeed. Almost reminiscent of summer 1995 in my opinion.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130712/12/147/h850t850eu.png

These charts just keep on giving! Now there's been a change to a flatter jet on day 4, similar to what set back the arrival of the strong high pressure last week (it was once looking good for early on rather than on Thu/Fri), but this time around it occurs while the jet is positioned and angled very favourably from a settled and hot perspective, so...

There's not really any incursion of less warm uppers on this run, with the Solent seeing 32°C on Tuesday, 30°C then projected for near Exeter on Wednesday, and with the rest of the UK bar the far NW seeing temps not far below those figures!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130712/12/228/h850t850eu.png

Into FI and on the face of it this looks like it could hold with a good block to the NE, but if you look at the jet stream charts you'll see a strong jet being driven right at us - that has to pivot counter-clockwise from there, and it sure does come close to that, but... not quite.
We all know the jet would be deflected north by the heights to the NE to at least some effective extent, so why GFS FI models a stubbornly flat jet like that remains one of life's great mysteries.

Further excellent output up to day 9 or 10 (depending on your view of thundery activity) and with mid-term heat upgrades for many of us

We go away early August, hope the unsettled theme starts mid month

Cheers Gav

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Settled from UKMO ................no surprise

Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 midday outputs from the big 5 models for today Friday July 12th 2013.

Tonight all models show a virtually identical set of runs which takes us right up to the end of the next working week. In synoptic termas High pressure just to the west of the Uk sinks a little South over the next few days with a weak cold front sliding SE over Northern and eastern areas tomorrow. The High to the SW by early in the week then builds back across the UK through the week where it becomes slow moving. In weather terms for Southern Britain the whole period will be typified by sustained and prolonged sunshine with temperatures ranging between warm and hot with the hottest conditions tomorrow and again later next week. In the North some fine and warm weather will occur too at times but there there is a greater risk of more cloud at times along with a little rain and as a consequence temperatures, though respectable will not be as high as areas further South.

GFS then shows next weekend as very warm still as the High edges slowly North perhaps allowing a few thundery showers to creep up from France across Southern areas. Through the first part of week 2 the weather remains set fair for a while longer with some warm sunshine still before an Atlantic depression feeds cooler Atlantic air with rain bearing fronts cross the UK from the west with much cooler and fresher conditions for all to see out the run.

The GFS Ensembles show a maintained feed of High pressure throughout the two weeks with centres always close to the UK fending off all major rain bearing systems and limiting any rainfall to the isolated heat shower now and again. The operational's cooeler and unsettled period at the end of the rain is unsupported.

The Jet Stream looks set to stay well North of the UK for most of the reliable and less reliable time frame on tonight's output blowing harmlessly NE between Scotland and Iceland and even further North than that on occasion.

UKMO is covered by the text above but looks to maintain High pressure close to the UK with it's attendant very warm and sunny weather well after the term of the run.

GEM tonight also shows High pressure resilient against any movement far from the UK late next week ending the run close to NW Scotland with something a little cooler in the far SE with the odd thundery shower possible in 10 days time.

NAVGEM is rock solid in maintaining High pressure over the UK to end next week with fine,sunny and hot conditions for all to end the week.

ECM tonight continues the fine theme going too gradually leaking pressure away next weekend as isobars open out but maintaining warm air in situ. The increased instability in the upper atmosphere could spark of a few thunderstorms in places over the weekend though these will be by no means widespread but could be responsible for cutting the top off the temperatures by the end of the run as a gentle progression of cooler air over western Europe filters into the UK.

In Summary tonight the weather remains in a very settled mode with plenty of fine, warm, very warm or hot weather to come over the next few weeks. There is no concrete trend or clear cut end to the fine spell in any output tonight with the unsettled GFS operational not having much support. With high temperatures so commonplace over the forecast period there is always the risk of a few thunderstorms breaking out now and again but there seems little prospect of any widespread storm events in the forecast period with the biggest chance tonight coming from ECM at Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2417.png

Tomorrow really is a burner

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png

The heat rages on for the UK

Looks to me like GEFS offer zero support for the ECM and GEM 12z op runs.

Even the ECM ensembles don't like the op run's idea:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.gif

Closer to the GFS op run there

Seems like ECM and GEM are both keen to amplify the pattern, usually a bit too much, and in recent times that's more often than not led to more energy being deposited over Scandinavia than shown by GFS and UKMO.

Several times now, ECM and GEM have backed down substantially while GFS has adjusted to a slightly more amplfied pattern, the net result usually being more or less what UKMO has shown in terms of energy over Scandinavia. We had an odd one for early next week though, where UKMO was far flatter and more progressive than the other models and then underwent a major backdown... the model tendencies are never straight forward

Best just wait and see if the usual adjustments occur this time around... in the mean time there is for most of us some notable high summer weather to experience

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.png

Heat continues to next Saturday and Sunday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn28817.png

Sizzling , those who love the heat can't complain, a tad too warm for me it has to be said.

Nice to see another hammock fan, can't beat it Rob, I have been spending many a hour on mine

That's excellent and also that's more than a week away as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn34817.png

another 2 weeks of heat

Good morning. Here is the morning look at the latest outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday July 13th 2013.

All models still show another week at least of fine and settled weather as High pressure close to West and SW of Britain early in the period continues to dominant proceedings as it builds back across the UK towards the middle and end of the following week. Most areas of southern Britain will maintain very warm or hot conditions throughout with long spells of sunshine and just the risk of the odd thundery shower in the afternoons. Further North there will be some cloudier periods early in the week perhaps with a little rain in the far NW but these areas too will join in the fine weather later in the week.

GFS then shows next weekend as a continuation of the week with some very warm sunshine for most as High pressure remains in control close to the UK. The far SE may see a cooler interlude at the weekend with an onshore NE breeze but this will dissolve in the new week as High pressure slips further South cutting off the flow. Then its all eyes to the South with a slow breakdown into something thundery in the SE ahead of an open door to the Atlantic to close the run with some rain moving East in developing cooler and fresher air.

The GFS Ensembles show a cool off but not until right at the end of the run when some welcome rain would be delivered but until then it's the familiar pattern of warm or very warm weather with precious little rainfall.

The Jet Stream shows the flow staying well to the North for the reliable future with any movement to the South of the UK only shown in the far reaches of FI in association with the general GFS breakdown then.

UKMO for the end of the week shows high pressure positioned over the North Sea on Friday with fine and very warm weather for all with long sunny spells and no prospect of rain.

GEM shows High pressure firmly over the UK through the week with long and warm sunny spells in light winds. The High does pull back towards the SW of the UK late in it's run pulling cooler air slowly down from the NW by Day 10.

NAVGEM shows the weather set fair through next week with it sending High pressure to the East of the UK with warm Continental air wafting over Southern Britain with the risk of a few thundery showers filtering North from France next weekend.

ECM today shows the hot and sunny weather unabated as High pressure lies firmly across the UK stretching from the Azores through Britain to Scandinavia  next weekend. There would be few exceptions to Nationwide very warm and sunny conditions throughout the run this morning except that the North could see an incursion of slightly less settled weather for a time beyond Day 10.

In Summary the weather remains in perfect Summer mode with the longest and warmest spell of Summer weather we will of seen for a good many years should this morning's output verify. There are few if any noteworthy exceptions to this rule with just the chance that a few thundery showers may occur now and again in the afternoons in the South later but, overall July and probably the first part of August too looks set fair as High pressure dominates close to the UK with sustained long sunny spells and very light winds. 

Thanks Martin

Good output but the farmers and growers will miss the rain..

Thanks Martin

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Thats the best ukmo run ive seen this summer so far stunning also good chance of a very hot air from europe latter on if that came off.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=156&mode=1

now that does look very hot from the japs  gotta be 90f plus surley for southern england.