Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 midday outputs from the big 5 models for today Friday July 12th 2013.
Tonight all models show a virtually identical set of runs which takes us right up to the end of the next working week. In synoptic termas High pressure just to the west of the Uk sinks a little South over the next few days with a weak cold front sliding SE over Northern and eastern areas tomorrow. The High to the SW by early in the week then builds back across the UK through the week where it becomes slow moving. In weather terms for Southern Britain the whole period will be typified by sustained and prolonged sunshine with temperatures ranging between warm and hot with the hottest conditions tomorrow and again later next week. In the North some fine and warm weather will occur too at times but there there is a greater risk of more cloud at times along with a little rain and as a consequence temperatures, though respectable will not be as high as areas further South.
GFS then shows next weekend as very warm still as the High edges slowly North perhaps allowing a few thundery showers to creep up from France across Southern areas. Through the first part of week 2 the weather remains set fair for a while longer with some warm sunshine still before an Atlantic depression feeds cooler Atlantic air with rain bearing fronts cross the UK from the west with much cooler and fresher conditions for all to see out the run.
The GFS Ensembles show a maintained feed of High pressure throughout the two weeks with centres always close to the UK fending off all major rain bearing systems and limiting any rainfall to the isolated heat shower now and again. The operational's cooeler and unsettled period at the end of the rain is unsupported.
The Jet Stream looks set to stay well North of the UK for most of the reliable and less reliable time frame on tonight's output blowing harmlessly NE between Scotland and Iceland and even further North than that on occasion.
UKMO is covered by the text above but looks to maintain High pressure close to the UK with it's attendant very warm and sunny weather well after the term of the run.
GEM tonight also shows High pressure resilient against any movement far from the UK late next week ending the run close to NW Scotland with something a little cooler in the far SE with the odd thundery shower possible in 10 days time.
NAVGEM is rock solid in maintaining High pressure over the UK to end next week with fine,sunny and hot conditions for all to end the week.
ECM tonight continues the fine theme going too gradually leaking pressure away next weekend as isobars open out but maintaining warm air in situ. The increased instability in the upper atmosphere could spark of a few thunderstorms in places over the weekend though these will be by no means widespread but could be responsible for cutting the top off the temperatures by the end of the run as a gentle progression of cooler air over western Europe filters into the UK.
In Summary tonight the weather remains in a very settled mode with plenty of fine, warm, very warm or hot weather to come over the next few weeks. There is no concrete trend or clear cut end to the fine spell in any output tonight with the unsettled GFS operational not having much support. With high temperatures so commonplace over the forecast period there is always the risk of a few thunderstorms breaking out now and again but there seems little prospect of any widespread storm events in the forecast period with the biggest chance tonight coming from ECM at Day 10.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset