Good morning. I'm sorry there was no report last night. I spent the day circumnavigating the county of Somerset with my work yesterday and it took a lot longer than I anticipated. However, here is todays look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday July 15th 2013.
All models continue to show fine and warm conditions through this week as High pressure sits to the SW of the UK currently, building back across the UK later in the week. This means there will be lots more very warm and sunny weather to come though Coastal areas especially in the West will be plagued with coastal mist and sea fog at times making it disappointingly cooler here for the first half of the week. It should stay dry for most but with troughs brushing close to the NW at times some light rain may occur here too, again more likely in the first half of the week. The weekend too looks like another fine and sunny one with plenty of very warm sunshine and light winds. It's not until we begin to look towards next week that some changes are now beginning to take shape.
GFS then shows early next week still largely fine though by then our long term High pressure has become a ridge straddled SW to NE across Northern areas with slightly cooler air fed across the UK from the North. Nevertheless, there will still be some fine and relatively warm weather with some sunshine and just the risk of a shower in the South. Later in the week developments to the NW take shape and the weather steadily turns cooler and more unsettled towards the end of the run with Low pressure to the North taking control and pushing rain bearing troughs East across the UK with brighter and showery conditions following in near average temperatures by then.
The GFS Ensembles are solidly in favour now of the weather to turn more unsettled towards the end of the month from the NW with rain at times for all and temperatures returning to average values for late July. However, in the first week there is very good support for a continuation of this prolonged fine and warm spell to continue until then.
The Jet Stream as one would expect in the very long term and the above prognosis will move South towards the UK and possibly further South very late in the run but at a 10 day range this is quite a tentative suggestion as in the mean time it continues to blow harmlessly Eastwards well to the North of the UK.
UKMO at time of printing is not updated beyond 48hrs on both Meteoceil or Wetter sites so is unavailable for comment this morning.
GEM shows a NW feed developing next week but it's effects in the South would be limited with just cooler and rather more cloudier conditions while the North could see rain at times develop in a blustery West wind as low pressure to the North takes hold here.
NAVGEM still shows High pressure moving towards the NE at the weekend which allows the chance of a thundery shower in the South for a time before it too hints at Low pressure moving down from the NW at the very end of it's run.
ECM relaxes High pressure away slowly West into the Atlantic in the first half of next week. Cooler and potentially more changeable weather would develop, though it would take it's time and even by the end of the run the effects of any rain would be more likely to be felt in the North rather than the South.
In Summary there are a few trends beginning to develop as we move through next week. This week is now rock solid on a continuation of fine and very warm weather though you wouldn't think so on the West Coasts of England and Wales this morning and coasts elsewhere on occasion through the week as local sea fog and low cloud can make a mockery of this prediction if your one of the unlucky folk stuck under this. Nevertheless, any meaningful rainfall is not expected until next week. This looks like it will be coming down from the NW as the High pulls back into the Atlantic and allows cooler winds from South of Iceland to infiltrate the over the UK. For the thunder aficianado's there is little cheer for you today as the change to cooler conditions will be marked by a slow cool off rather than heavy thundery rain and in all any notable rainfall events still look hard to come by, especially in the South even after any cooler conditions arrive.
Edited by user
15 July 2013 08:00:13
|
Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset