Looks like the models are in firm agreement in bringing the north-easterlies back over the South East and the East of the UK by the weekend. Cooler - or at least near normal - temperatures but hopefully with much improved air quality.

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The upcoming weekend weekend just demonstrates how poorly models perform at certain ranges, and how they are unreliable - GFS, has gone from showing 31C in Cheshire, and 29C for the bulk of England on Saturday, to showing 26C in Cheshire, and 21 - 24C elsewhere. That's a big difference between just two runs.

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Yes that what Moomin was rightly not buying to it from yesterday 18z incident when they show such cool temps under the same HP that generating prolonged hot period lately.

Just had a skim through the data on Ogimet, I might have missed one or two but as far as I can see these are the figures for 2006, choosing consecutive temps above 28C anywhere in the UK, as per this month.

 

June 30: 29.1C

July 1: 30.5C

July 2: 32.3C

July 3: 31.2C

July 4: 31.3C

July 5: 29.1C

then a big gap with temps below 28C

July 16: 30.5C

July 17: 32.7C

July 18: 33.2C

July 19: 35.5C (Wisley got 36.5C but not listed here)

July 20: 32.2C

July 21: 32.8C

July 22: 31.0C

July 23: 28.0C

July 24: 31.0C

July 25: 34.1C

July 26: 32.7C

July 27: 30.7C

July 28: 29.7C

July 29: 29.6C

... then down to 26.1C on the 30th.

 

So "only" a run of 14 days at 28C or above - and seven consecutive days above 30C.

 

In terms of consistent heat, this month might actually end up beating July 2006, but the maxima are not as extreme.

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Cheers Rob. What we'd have taken for an 'only' 14 day stretch in any of these last 6 years!

Despite the more limited (in the relative sense) maxes we could well be looking at a pretty big CET return should some of the more optimistic runs of late come to fruition.

Heat continues IMBY

M 27c

T 29c

W 29c

T 28c

F 27c

S 26c

S 26c

M 27 c

T 24 c ( 12 pm )

W 26 c     "

T 27 c      "

F Starts to cool down

Still a long way to go before anything cooler

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Warm temperatures and dry weather all the way through to at least 23rd July. The operational and control extending that through to 26th July.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Still suggestions of a shift in the last week of July, still too far out in FI to have much confidence in at this point and still too much good weather to enjoy in the meantime to worry about it.

Looks warm on ECM out to at least 25th July.

I'm certainly not worried. We still have the whole of August and September for summer weather, and can't see much changing in the next two weeks.

To be honest, a few days of cooler weather with a sprinkle of rain would be handy come the end of the month, and I still firmly believe (as is often the case), that once a pattern such as this sets in, it often repeats over the months, and so I believe we are looking at an excellent August and early September.

Just opinions of course, because LRFs are pretty futile (although I'm very happy with mine - if anything I under-estimated what this summer would deliver).

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Indeed the ECM Op looks very similar to what the ensemble mean has been over the last few days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html  Still looks hot in 10 days 28c at least I would say there. And still mostly settled no proper breakdown shown.

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Looks like there is a return of the nor'easterlies to affect the Eastern side of England as well as the South East as we head right into the tail end of this week and into the weekend. And it's not just a selective cherry picking of a particular model thing as there is quite a broad agreement across the board.
  That'll most certainly take the edge off temperature-wise over the above mentioned areas. But, whether that'll also mean the return of the sea mist and low cloud or it'll just remain bright but merely making it feel cooler and fresher for a time is another question (but at least it'll come with better air quality).

(As for comparing the 2006 warm spell to the current one. I have felt the former big time as there were several days of 30 C and reached 35 C for a short time on the 19th July even here at my coastal location, this time round it seems that I'm getting off lightly thus making it a less memorable event for me so far - or perhaps where I used to work in a greenhouse may have altered my perception of it all).

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Don't reckon this current hot summer is (thus far) much of a comparison to 2006. But I wonder when the last year of such contrasts was in terms of how much colder than average it was earlier in the year and warmer now? (not suggesting it is unprecedented or anything, just curious).

In 1913 Death Valley recorded not only its record high temp (134F) but also its record low (15F).

http://www.nps.gov/deva/naturescience/weather-and-climate.htm

Not really what you meant, but an interesting curiosity.

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Good morning. I'm sorry there was no report last night. I spent the day circumnavigating the county of Somerset with my work yesterday and it took a lot longer than I anticipated. However, here is todays look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday July 15th 2013.

All models continue to show fine and warm conditions through this week as High pressure sits to the SW of the UK currently, building back across the UK later in the week. This means there will be lots more very warm and sunny weather to come though Coastal areas especially in the West will be plagued with coastal mist and sea fog at times making it disappointingly cooler here for the first half of the week. It should stay dry for most but with troughs brushing close to the NW at times some light rain may occur here too, again more likely in the first half of the week. The weekend too looks like another fine and sunny one with plenty of very warm sunshine and light winds. It's not until we begin to look towards next week that some changes are now beginning to take shape.

GFS then shows early next week still largely fine though by then our long term High pressure has become a ridge straddled SW to NE across Northern areas with slightly cooler air fed across the UK from the North. Nevertheless, there will still be some fine and relatively warm weather with some sunshine and just the risk of a shower in the South. Later in the week developments to the NW take shape and the weather steadily turns cooler and more unsettled towards the end of the run with Low pressure to the North taking control and pushing rain bearing troughs East across the UK with brighter and showery conditions following in near average temperatures by then.

The GFS Ensembles are solidly in favour now of the weather to turn more unsettled towards the end of the month from the NW with rain at times for all and temperatures returning to average values for late July. However, in the first week there is very good support for a continuation of this prolonged fine and warm spell to continue until then.

The Jet Stream as one would expect in the very long term and the above prognosis will move South towards the UK and possibly further South very late in the run but at a 10 day range this is quite a tentative suggestion as in the mean time it continues to blow harmlessly Eastwards well to the North of the UK.

UKMO at time of printing is not updated beyond 48hrs on both Meteoceil or Wetter sites so is unavailable for comment this morning.

GEM shows a NW feed developing next week but it's effects in the South would be limited with just cooler and rather more cloudier conditions while the North could see rain at times develop in a blustery West wind as low pressure to the North takes hold here.

NAVGEM still shows High pressure moving towards the NE at the weekend which allows the chance of a thundery shower in the South for a time before it too hints at Low pressure moving down from the NW at the very end of it's run.

ECM relaxes High pressure away slowly West into the Atlantic in the first half of next week. Cooler and potentially more changeable weather would develop, though it would take it's time and even by the end of the run the effects of any rain would be more likely to be felt in the North rather than the South.

In Summary there are a few trends beginning to develop as we move through next week. This week is now rock solid on a continuation of fine and very warm weather though you wouldn't think so on the West Coasts of England and Wales this morning and coasts elsewhere on occasion through the week as local sea fog and low cloud can make a mockery of this prediction if your one of the unlucky folk stuck under this. Nevertheless, any meaningful rainfall is not expected until next week. This looks like it will be coming down from the NW as the High pulls back into the Atlantic and allows cooler winds from South of Iceland to infiltrate the over the UK. For the thunder aficianado's there is little cheer for you today as the change to cooler conditions will be marked by a slow cool off rather than heavy thundery rain and in all any notable rainfall events still look hard to come by, especially in the South even after any cooler conditions arrive.

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Thanks Martin...

 

Like the no change expected until a week or so into August...For this area....

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This post would be more at home in Quantum's "coldest place in the Northern Hemisphere in Summer" (or something like that) thread.

PS: Cheers as always, Martin.

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I think you shouldn't get those low maxes as the current sea temps over your location now risen back to 15C after few days drop to 14C due to draining away the coolest sea temps which now almost finished as more yellow 17C sea temps closing in back so hopefully by the end of this week to see 17C over the Channel and to join the warm 17-18C already from E Denmark that would move along toward Benelux coasts.

I also knew this summer cannot be a complete repeat of last year worst one out of 2007-2012 and what I see from the models that AZ HP is a feature set-up that likely to persist for the rest of the summer.   This morning runs show temps between 27-31C here so more like 1983 summer than past hot summer years.

Thanks Martin

Hi Jiries. Indeed, there is the chance that the seas around us start to have less of an effect as we go into the second half of this month - it's taken a lot of work to get there though.
  Nonetheless, it would be interesting to see how things does pan out come the weekend as it all continue to be part of my learning process (like I learn anything!).

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Epic jap run even out to f1 land

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1

 

t240 0z ecm mean and opp this mornimg are better than that of last nights but all in f1 of course.

Not in terms of extreme heat but it could well have a longer spell of unbroken 80F+ heat than July 2006. We could end up with three full weeks with the temp reaching 80F somewhere in the UK every single day. That didn't happen even in July 2006 as there was a quite coolish interlude in the second week with temps down to 22-23c.

Not sure when the last time it happened was. If not 2003 then maybe 1983.

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Navgm looks very hot mid thirtys next sunday if that epic run came off I would have thought?

18 uppers on the south coast amazing.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnvgeur.html

 

is that hot enough for u Matty  maybe not for Jiries.

Still looks as though it wants to hang on.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

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