GFS has shown various breakdowns in FI since the start of this warm period. It's the nature of low res output and indeed the difficulty models have handling blocked weather. Those breakdowns have consistently been pushed back. This just underlines the risk of being over confident or definite about anything much beyond seven days.
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
Agree there SF. Last weekend the GFS and ECM as well to some extent seemed to be toying with the idea of a breakdown from the NW, which both seemed to have dropped over the last couple of days. Now they seem to be considering the idea of a breakdown of sorts from the SW. Who knows? Like you though, I do think and have thought for a while that the models always struggle with blocked set-ups, regardless of what time of year it is.
Originally Posted by: Charmhills
David, you have got to go with that the models show even upto 144hs or more and if there is agreement with hot/humid thundery weather than I would say it is increasingly likely and not to be ignored.
As for the breakdown to much cooler, fresher weather, than that is sill along way out for now.
Originally Posted by: David M Porter