This evening, critical changes to the handling of the energy in 5 days time has caused GFS to take the weekend trough as far SE as it's ever done.
Meanwhile, critical changes in the opposite direction have taken ECM far, far away from it's 00z solution of a major trough diving SE and bringing a somewhat vicious northerly (for the time of year)... now it has a robust HP cell moving across, which then heads into Europe and spreads it's arms, creating some serious FI eye candy in terms of widespread warmth and a strong hint of thundery potential beyond day 10.

Another classic country dance from ECM and GFS

As often seems to be the case, UKMO holds the middle ground and remains fairly steady as a result. Sometimes it seems like UKMO should have the best verification stats... but then sometimes, when it shows strangely slack charts at day 6, or rushes LP through at an insane pace, it's clear why it doesn't have the edge on ECM. It's very decent model nonetheless

I see GEM remains the most amplified and then sets up a NW-SE jet. The tendency to over-amplify has been a serious issue since it recieved that major upgrade - a real shame as it could have been a real contender for 'the big models' otherwise. The silver lining is that we might be seeing some sensational winter output from it come November.... we'll just have to make sure that we don't take it seriously!

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Hi folks. A little late but better late than never here is tonight's view of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday August 25th 2013.

All models maintain the quiet and benign pattern of weather across the UK this week. That is not to say there won't be differences from day to day and place to place but on the whole the balance of weather will fall firmly on the dry and bright side with sunny spells at times and temperatures pleasantly warm in the sunshine with just a rogue afternoon shower thrown in for good measure tomorrow. There will be some cloudier periods, notably on Tuesday as a trough sinks SE over the UK with a little rain for many. It is also conceivable that Thursday and Friday could see the North having a further spell of cloud and a little rain in a slowly freshening Westerly wind to end the week.

GFS then shows Low pressure slipping ESE down the Northern North Sea at the weekend with all areas becoming a little more unsettled for a time with a little rain reaching the South too briefly. It will also feel rather cooler for a time in a fresher West to Northwest wind. The latter part of the run then shows High pressure building strongly over or just to the West of the UK with some fine and settled weather for all with chilly and misty nights at times.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a mixed pattern day to day but always with the emphasis very much on the side of warmer than average conditions for all. There will be small amounts of rain in the South and only on a few occasions while the North sees rain more frequently but never exceptionally heavy.

The Jet Stream tonight is shown to be well North of the UK for some time to come before the flow topples down over the UK in a week or so with NW Europe away from the UK likely to see resulting unsettled weather.

UKMO tonight closes it's run with Low pressure crossing East well to the North of Scotland with just Scotland feeling any effects from it's wind and associated rain bearing fronts while the rest of the UK stays dry, bright and relatively warm with some sunshine.

GEM tonight shows a much breezier and cooler NW wind developing at the end of the week as Low pressure slides SE down the North Sea and followed by other disturbances from the NW late in the run. With High pressure away to the SW of the UK there wouldn't be much rain in the South but even down here it would feel cool in the breeze and cloud cover.

NAVGEM makes very little of the Low at the end of the week with a weak trough instead moving South at the weekend ahead of further High pressure with attendant fine and dry conditions for most.

ECM is much better tonight having removed next weekend's SE plunging Low pressure down the North Sea. Instead we see it staying well to the NE and affecting only Scotland with breezy and showery conditions for a time before High pressure rebuilds across the UK and sets us up for a UK wide spell of warm or very warm weather across the South and East and even improvements for the North too before a SW wind and increasing wind is shown here by Day 10.

In Summary the models are still jostling around with the synoptics over the end of the week, next weekend and beyond. There is still a lot of support for fine and warmer than average conditions and it's nice to see ECM backtrack from it's Autumnal blast next weekend shown this morning. There could be a few cloudier and showery interludes almost anywhere at anytime but for the best chance of missing most of these and staying largely dry and relatively warm is in the South.

I am too busy tomorrow morning for any type of report I'm afraid but will be back for the 12zs at the end of the day.

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Thanks martin fine report as allways.

Lovely settled runs to finish off August and meteorological summer. There appears to be a brief blip, especially for northern areas next weekend before high pressure re asserts itself from the SW again for early September.

All in all.. a good summer. 

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ECM and GFS now agree on the strong Atlantic storm being only a glancing affair on Saturday with a ridge building in on Sunday.

Then... GFS delivers a lick of 20°C 850hPa temps in FI, while ECM has gone from a very amplified solution 24 hours ago to a very flat one this morning

(Good morning Steve )

Here's hoping the current mist and low cloud clears readily today as forecast. I'm off to a supercar showdown

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 I'm off to a supercar showdown 

 

wheres that? fordingbridge car park. 

That's been more like motorbike madness lately.

Beaulieu's the place for supercars today The fine day painted by the models looks to be evolving nicely now, with sunshine coming through

In fact the output looks pretty good out to Friday, before that glancing blow from the Atlantic at the weekend.

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Some nice stuff coming up here .

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Very nice September weather here.

Lets hope this lot verifies.

 

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Been very quiet in here today, most enjoying the BH weather, and why not

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

HP holding for most all week , but look at the drop in temps, it would feel chilly in comparison to what we have had today

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Good evening folks. Here is my look at the 12 noon outputs for today Bank Holiday Monday August 26th 2013.

All models show a ridge of High pressure across the country giving ground temporarily to a weakening front moving SE over the UK over the coming 18 hours or so. A dry night is likely before cloud and rain dissipating to scattered showers moves down from the NW through tomorrow not reaching the SE. By Wednesday high pressure re-establishes itself to give a fine and warm day before the next front takes a similar route as tomorrows in moving NW to SE over the UK with some rain for a time before a change to slightly cooler and fresher NW winds sets itself up over the weekend, especially in the North.

GFS then builds High pressure back in close to the SW late next weekend and more especially in the week that follows, extending it's influence to all of the UK as the week progresses with warm and settled weather developing over all areas with light winds and sunny spells. High pressure then shows no sign of losing control over the rest of the run just drifting slightly West and allowing a slightly cool NW flow to develop over the UK. Night's could see some mistiness with cool weather in rural locations.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a warm set of members tonight with a short and very noticeable cool blip next weekend as a brief flirtation with Autumnal NW'lies affects the UK for a while. Thereafter there is sound support for warm and largely settled conditions to return especially in the South.

The Jet Stream is predicted to maintain it's position for a day or two more before it diverts SE across the UK at the weekend as the cooler NW flow moves in. It isn't long though before it is pulled back North again close to Iceland towards the end of the period.

UKMO tonight shows a cool NW flow at the weekend most prolific in the North and East where occasional showers are likely. Towards the South and West High pressure will be building back late in the weekend with lighter winds and sunny spells but chilly and perhaps misty nights.

GEM tonight shows a sustained period when winds will be blowing from the NW. They would be quite strong for a time through the weekend and the start of next week but fall lighter as High pressure edges in with weekend showers in the North and East easing to drier conditions from the SW. Temperatures would remain close to average but cool for a time in the North and East at the weekend. 

NAVGEM shows the chillier feel at the weekend too as Low pressure develops to the North moving East with a cooler showery NW flow over the North and East in particular before a secondary feature crosses SE in the flow at the end of the run with some rain for all for a time.

ECM tonight shows some strong early Autumn storms whipping up to the North of Britain with a double whammy of cool and strong West or NW winds in the North at the weekend and again early next week with enough punch to throw cloud and some rain all the way down to Southern Britain at times. Although the first Low doesn't affect the South much on this run the second one next week would with a squally cold front bringing a band of rain followed by showers to all areas in cooler early Autumnal West or NW winds.

In Summary the weather appears to be heading for a sustained period when winds will be blowing down from the NW. As a result some of the warmer conditions we have seen of late could start ebbing away if the trajectory of the deepening Atlantic depressions crossing East to the North of the UK move a little further South than suggested. As it is the North is likely to become a good deal windier with rain at times for here while the South holds on to dry, bright and relatively warm daytime conditions for a while yet. GFS on the other hand goes all out to keep the UK in summer mode well into September.

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Looks like the ECM southerly dipping low next weekend has been programmed to stay further north as expected. Lets hope like Martin says that the high pressure doe push back up rather than the west to north westerlies forecast by some of the other models.

ECM look's poor to night cool west or north west wind for next week.

Looks like it will change to cooler times after wednesday next week.... 

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Good morning. Here is the morning look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM and now a once a day look at the latest fax charts for today Tuesday August 27th 2013.

All models show High pressure to the SW of the UK with a broad ridge across the UK. A weak front will move SE through the ridge today with a little rain in the North giving way to a few hill showers in the West later with many areas despite a little more cloud staying dry, warm and bright. With this front gone all models show tomorrow with the ridge held firm over the UK. By Thursday and Friday winds strengthen a little from the West or NW as the ridge sinks South and a couple of fronts are shown to cross SE through these days with a little rain in the North. Over the weekend the air becomes cleaner and fresher from the NW as winds increase markedly over the north with some showers while the South though cooler will remain largely dry and rain free.

GFS then shows next week with rather more changeable conditions with a more definite Westerly flow with occasional rain for most, even the South at times. The fronts delivering these changeable conditions will continue through to the end of the run with rather cool conditions likely in the occasional bursts of NW as the fronts clear through.

The GFS Ensembles still show a dip in uppers for all at the weekend as cool NW winds take hold briefly. The recovery to well above average uppers thereafter is shown to be much more tempered this morning with the more popular outcome likely to see temperatures closer to average with rain at times in the North and at least the chance of rain periodically in the South too.

The Jet Stream continues to flow well North of the UK for a few more days. It then dives SE over the UK at the weekend with the growing trend to want to maintain this SE feed of flow over the remainder of the period with the end of run change to a more West to East flow across the UK.

UKMO today shows High pressure holding firm across the South early next week with a Westerly flow for many. A fair amount of cloud would be present nationwide but the South would likely be dry and bright while the North sees thicker cloud and occasional rain in a stronger Westerly flow.

The Fax Charts today show a series of weak fronts crossing SE towards the weekend introducing cooler and fresher NW winds and showers in the North at the weekend.

GEM shows winds from a West to NW direction early next week and like UKMO keeps fine conditions largely continuing across the South while the North would see thicker cloud, a stronger breeze and rain at times in close to average temperatures though still warm in the SE.

NAVGEM today shows a more definitive plunge of cool NW winds across all areas early next week as Low pressure pushes SE down the North Sea with cool and bright weather with blustery showers affecting all areas for a time, especially the North and West.

ECM shows stronger winds developing for all next week with dry weather for the South continuing for a time while the North sees some showers. The more unsettled and cooler conditions are shown to spread to all areas by midweek.

In Summary there seems to be a growing trend for High pressure that has been down to the SW for what seems like an age may become somewhat less influential as we move into next week. There seems to be a shift in the Jet pattern towards a more NW to SE bias next week which allows depressions to slip SE across the North Sea and NW Europe next week with the net result that the cooler and more showery conditions gradually extend deeper and deeper South into the UK. The main effect for the South is not just the increased risk of a little rain but more that the temperatures would feel a good deal fresher than of late given the inevitable increase of wind strength and cloud cover and the fact that the air to the north and NW of Britain is cooling quickly now we are into September next week.

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Thank you Martin..

 

Need to keep an eye out now for expected Seasonal changes.

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The models have an autumnal feel about them this morning in time for September.

Its been a good summer so I'm now ready for a change of seasons.

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Agreed 

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

A More Autumnal Feel For The Weekend And Next Week;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

First signs of the changing seasons...

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Cheers Gavin

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Yes, at least we can all say that we've had a summer this year, unlike the last few. I don't think many would have complained had someone said three months ago that the summer would turn out as it has; I certainly wouldn't.

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Definitely looking like a NW/SE split this weekend with the threat of weather fronts moving further north with each passing 6 hours! Well I bloody hope so as we have an outdoor charity event on Saturday and could do without rain..:-(

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

Auntumn low late on

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Getting to that time of year. but what a good summer it's been.

Good evening. Here is tonight's report from the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Tuesday August 27th 2013.

All models show a ridge of High pressure over the UK tonight and tomorrow with light winds, fair weather with little chance of rain for all areas. Through Thursday and Friday the ridge slips away South for a time as a couple of fronts move SE across the UK with some rain at times for the North. The South will see very little rain from the first front on Thursday night but may see a little more on Friday night as they eventually clear the SE. The weekend then sees High pressure ridging back across the UK with fine but cooler and fresher conditions for many and the chance of scattered showers in the more windy North. It will be chilly at night countrywide with some mist and fog patches.

GFS shows next week as gradually turning more unsettled as Low pressure to the North work their way further South towards Scotland with rainfall in the North becoming more frequent in the South too later in the week. The latter part of the run shows changeable weather continuing with the remains of an ex-tropical storm finding it's way across the Atlantic to the UK at the end of the run with some heavy rain and strong winds for all.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a sharp dip in temperatures at the weekend before a recovery to more average values looks likely to be achieved for the rest of the run. Rainfall gradually becomes more frequent for many though no great amounts are indicated for the South. 

The Jet Stream currently North of the UK sinks SE over NE Britain and the North Sea at the weekend before tilting more West to East but at a lower latitude over the Atlantic on a crash course for the UK.

UKMO tonight shows falling pressure on Monday as a front approaches from the West in a steadily increasing West wind. After a dry and bright start cloud and rain will likely be arriving from the West later in the day.

GEM shows a fresh Westerly flow over all areas early next week with High pressure not far from the South while Low pressure remains to the North of the UK. The fresh breeze will carry rain at times over the North while the South sees more cloudy conditions at times. Late in the week and at the end of the run winds veer to the NW with brighter skies but rather cool conditions especially at night but staying largely dry away from a showery North and Northeast.

NAVGEM tonight shows a NW flow next weekend with cooler conditions than of late especially in the North. Some rain or showers are possible in the North while Southern UK stays mostly dry if rather cloudy at times close to High pressure to the SW.

ECM shows High pressure to the SW of England next Monday with a West to Northwest flow over the UK. The weather would still be mostly dry across the UK but the North could be cloudier at times with a little rain and a stiff Westerly breeze. Later in the week a depression to the NW sinks south across the UK bringing a mix of sunshine and showers to all with some longer outbreaks of rain and temperatures close to average.

In Summary there is a slow trend for gradually more changeable conditions to extend South across the UK next week. Before that the weather remains mostly dry in the South with any rain more likely over the North with a short but notable toe in the water taste of Autumn for all areas for a few days at the weekend. It may be another week to 10 days before any notable changes in the weather in the way of rainfall reaches Southern Britain though.

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Interesting 12z runs, especially from ECM.

IMO the models are picking up on a change towards a more amplified Atlantic pattern next month. I have long suspected that it would come around the middle of the month, but of course it could easily occur a little earlier. The key driving force is the PV displacing to Scandi (which GEM goes for) and/or Siberia:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013082712/ECH1-216.GIF?27-0

With GFS not in support, there's a fair liklihood that ECM and GEM are jumping the gun with this, and yes, I am anticipating that the PV displacement will occur at some point next month, most likely mid-September. This is based on a combination of CFS and GLOSEA (Met Office model) output, plus a fair dollop of 'instinct'. I wouldn't bet on this prediction, but I reckon  it's worth a shot

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