http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1284.png?06

Not forgetting the winter woolies of course

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1668.png?06

Santa should coming skiing in

I'll give this Vid a miss if that is ok

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn36017.png

A chilly start to November

Near end of October looks colder CFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-240.png?18

Before going back to mild again into November

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-402.png?18

It was mild last night and raining but gave the feeling it was cold so we put the wood burner on... Bad idea

Ruddy roasted all night...

Good morning. Here is the morning report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday October 19th 2013.

All models suggest only slow changes from the current pattern over the next week or so. All areas will be influenced by Low pressure over the Eastern Atlantic drawing up mild and sometimes strong SW winds and occasional spells of rain and showers, some heavy with thunder as troughs in the mild flow swing NE to affect all areas at times. Some unseasonably mild conditions will continue to occur at times, particularly overnight and early in the period. Northern Scotland will be less mild at times but still quite wet and this somewhat cooler weather may begin to extend SE to other areas by next weekend with lighter winds.

GFS then shows a cooler and drier interlude next weekend as a ridge crosses East but in the North renewed Westerly winds and rain will arrive by Sunday with the South staying largely dry if rather cloudy. The following week is shown to become very unsettled and windy again everywhere but this time much less mild with average temperatures or a little below. There will be spells of heavy rain and squally showers driven on by chilly Westerly winds and it is shown to become cold enough for snow on Northern hills and mountains at times late in the run.

UKMO shows the start of next weekend as being very unsettled still as Low pressure migrates slowly NE over the UK next Saturday. Rain and showers would be prevalent for all and away from the North it would still be quite mild though thee are signs that Sunday could be a cooler and fresher day with winds swinging more towards the NW.

GEM today keeps unsettled and windy weather throughout the latter stages of it's run with a potentially stormy period in 10 days time as a vigorous Low spins towards Western Britain. After the mild week next week temperatures here too are shown to fall back to average levels and it will begin to feel rather cold in the strength of the wind and rain.

NAVGEM shows a broad Westerly flow next weekend with sunshine and showers for many in rather cooler air than of late. The showers would be heaviest in the North with the potential or a drier period in the South.

ECM today shows a short 24-48hr drier period over the UK at some point next weekend, most likely in the North at first and then the South the day after before wet and windy conditions return off the Atlantic over the start of the week after next with temperatures having declined to more average levels for late October.

The GFS Ensembles show about another week of very mild conditions are likely across the South with rather less in the North. Thereafter temperatures will be near or even a shade below average at times. There looks to be little sign of any marked drier and quieter Autumnal weather with further rain or showers at times North and South and with temperatures lower some hill snow becomes possible later in the far North at times.

The Jet Stream keeps a low latitude position across the Atlantic and the British Isles for the foreseeable future with the migration North shown yesterday programmed for a week or so ahead of the present looking less evident this morning.

In Summary the weather appears in typically Autumnal fashion with deep Low pressure areas over the Atlantic steered towards the British Isles and throwing their attendant troughs North and NE across all areas at times. Some fine and dry interludes are always possible too and in the coming week these could throw temperatures into rather warm territory at times given the wind source is from well South in the Atlantic. Longer term there is growing support for things to become less mild with more average conditions as the wind source switches more towards higher latitudes of the North Atlantic but it looks like being no less unsettled with spells of rain and showers continuing for all with occasional very strong winds though, a short drier interlude in the South next weekend looks possible. As temperatures fall through Week 2 the chance of hill snow in the North becomes possible behind passing cold fronts at times.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

No doubt a little milder when first week is over  after  the last month or so .

Thanks Martin.

Could do with some clear nights ....Missing the shooting stars...

Very low pressure dominant for the coming week ahead.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of some flooding in places.

gfs opp little support at day 10 with its members

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

mean

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m10.html

Both very mild at day 10 s/westerly rules

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

very wet for west wales

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/108h.htm

very mild for most of  europe

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

ive seen enough to send me to sleep milides will say GOOD.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png

Back to average temps at least

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.png

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday October 19th 2013.

All models show Low pressure remaining in control of the weather over the UK through the next week. Innitially, centres to the West and then NW will keep mild SW winds blowing across the UK carrying spells of rain and thundery showers NE at times. later next week sees most models with a new Low feeding up from the SW approaches, crossing England and Wales and giving a good deal of rain in places with temperatures decreasing to more average levels by next weekend.

GFS then shows a ridge of High pressure building over Northern Britain with dry, cooler and brighter weather while a hang-back of Low pressure over the South maintains unsettled weather here through the weekend too. Through the latter half of the run  SE winds bring rather warm air NW from Europe and while very breezy with a lot of cloud temperatures would again be well above average before more unsettled and cooler weather spills back in off the Atlantic late in the run over the North with a cooler Autumnal quiet spell developing right at the end.

UKMO shows a marked cold front pushing South next Friday on the rear side of an exiting Low pressure to the East. A band of heavy showers or more persistent rain will move South over England and Wales through the day with colder and brighter weather following with some sunshine and just more scattered showers in the North.

GEM evolves into a very stormy period after next weekend as a vicious system of Low pressure crosses NE over England with storm force winds briefly coupled with heavy rainfall before things calm somewhat but still with rain at times in trailing Low pressure over the British Isles. Temperatures would fall back to average levels beyond the first week.

NAVGEM shows pressure rising later next week and weekend from the South with dry and fine weather extending across Southern areas. Northern areas will stay more unsettled but generally mild with some rain at times in fresher West or SW winds.

ECM shows a brief drier interlude too later next weekend before the Atlantic wind and rain returns, this time with somewhat lower temperatures as the strong Westerly flow that develops has a much colder air source to accompany frequent bands of rain and showers.

The GFS Ensembles show the operational as a warm outlier in the second half of the run while most members shows nearer to average values when taken as a whole with a mix of milder and colder options. Rainfall remains quite a common occurrence suggesting a continuation of Atlantic Low pressure dominance.

The Jet Stream shows the flow crossing the Atlantic towards the UK over the coming week with a troughing of the flow South of the UK next weekend.

In Summary there is little overall change in the outputs tonight from this morning. The highlight's have to be the vicious storm system that GEM passes across Southern England next Monday morning which if evolved as shown would give damaging winds to Southern England. On a more general note the pattern remains basically unsettled and wet at times with the chance of a drier interlude at some point next weekend while all models predict a temperature fall of several degrees on current values as we move through next weekend and the following week.

Transcrript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Hey dude I didnt say I was dispondent anywhere I said mild and wet it is to be, enough to send me to sleep imo.

The earlier the cold gets here the better as far as im concerned imo.

I also respect other peoples wishes also.

ive seen enough to send me to sleep milides will say GOOD.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Yep I say excellent, actually. Long may it continue.

I'd also remind you it's October the 19th. Why on earth would any cold lover be dispondent?

Rhetorical question BTW ^^^^^^

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Thanks Martin

Does anyone find the charts for next weekend interesting? As the blocking breaks down that cold air is finally wafted our way. The partial thicknesses are actually low enough for snow in mainland scotland and marginal for N England as it stands, by next sunday. 

Good morning. Here is today's detailed look at the prospects shown from the models for up to two weeks ahead as illustrated by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM as of midnight on Sunday October 20th 2013.

The General Situation. Low pressure close to SW Ireland dominates the UK weather currently with bands of showery rain crossing NE on occasion mixed with drier and brighter spells in between. It will be very mild for nearly all of the Uk except the far North where temperatures hold closer to average. Tomorrow sees a new Low centre swing North to the West of Ireland pushing troughs quickly North over Britain and then a cold front much slower East on Tuesday. The West will become very wet tomorrow with less rain and some brightness in the East where it could become exceptionally warm (20C) in places tomorrow afternoon. Through Tuesday the cold front will bring a band of heavy rain East across the East too followed by a mix of sunshine and squally thundery showers in places through Wednesday. It will remain mild too but with a blustery SW wind and rather cooler weather still  in the duller far North. On Thursday a drier interlude overnight will be replaced by another depression moving NE over Britain carrying another spell of strong winds and rain in a gusty SW wind across the South. Through Friday and the start of next weekend clearer and cooler air is shown by most models to cross SE through most areas with winds turning NW briefly as a brief ridge approaches from the West.

GFS then takes us through next weekend with further cloud and rain as a small Low is reluctant to clear East out of Southern areas with the North seeing a dry and brighter spell briefly. Then through the following week a few drier periods are likely in further warm Southerly breezes before a potentially stormy weather becomes shown late in the run as intense depressions cross the Atlantic over the heart of the UK with severe gales and heavy rain. Temperatures would fall to average levels and it would no doubt feel cold in the wind and rain.

UKMO this morning shows next weekend as still being unsettled with Saturday seeing rain clear SE behind a cold front with a much cooler and fresher feel likely. A drier interlude then looks likely before freshening Westerly winds bring cloud and rain back across the UK next Sunday.

GEM shows a more marked ridge next weekend bringing fine and cooler conditions to the South for a time next weekend. However, Low pressure to the North is shown to ensure improvements are muted and temporary as in the days that follow breezy West winds affect all again with a couple of cold fronts delivering a couple of spells of rain for all in temperatures much cooler and fresher than of late.

NAVGEM today concludes it's output with a strong SW flow chasing away a ridge of High pressure next weekend with a drying up Saturday followed by a return to strong winds and rain, especially in the North and West by the end of next Sunday.

ECM flattens any ridge next Saturday very quickly as the strong Atlantic Westerly flow following it overpowers the UK again with spells of rain and showers for all again as we move into next week. Low pressure is shown to cross the UK from the West and with a cooler Northern Atlantic source to such depressions it would be rather cooler and wet than that we have become accustomed too. Some gales would also be expected almost anywhere at times and in these it will feel chilly.

The GFS Ensembles today show an almost continuous period of Atlantic based Westerly winds with the current very mild conditions across much of Britain seeping away next weekend as fresher and cooler North Atlantic air spreads across all areas. However, it never looks like being cold over the coming few weeks with plenty of wind and rain at times for all with just brief drier interludes lasting less than a day looking more likely than not.

The Jet Stream this morning shows a confused pattern, especially later but in the short to medium term continues to pump NE across the UK having crossed the Atlantic on quite a Southern trajectory.

In Summary today it looks like a couple of weeks with Atlantic based winds driving the weather over the UK. In the first week with the trajectory of the depressions moving SW to NE across Western and Northern parts we can expect very mild weather to continue but through Week 2 it looks like that trajectory will shift to more of a West to East motion pulling colder North Atlantic air across the UK from next weekend bring temperatures back to average and making it feel cold in the strong Westerly flow. However, having said all that the air will never be frigid and there is little sign of any real cold, late Autumn weather anywhere with the incidence of frost and fog over the next few weeks kept to an absolute minimum or none at all for many. Sunshine amounts will be at a premium, experienced mostly during the showery days and gales can be expected on a number of occasions as always more so in the North and West.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Thankyou Martin for your output..

No cold weather...No extra heating needed..But may have to combat damp.....