Good morning. Here is today's detailed look at the prospects shown from the models for up to two weeks ahead as illustrated by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM as of midnight on Sunday October 20th 2013.
The General Situation. Low pressure close to SW Ireland dominates the UK weather currently with bands of showery rain crossing NE on occasion mixed with drier and brighter spells in between. It will be very mild for nearly all of the Uk except the far North where temperatures hold closer to average. Tomorrow sees a new Low centre swing North to the West of Ireland pushing troughs quickly North over Britain and then a cold front much slower East on Tuesday. The West will become very wet tomorrow with less rain and some brightness in the East where it could become exceptionally warm (20C) in places tomorrow afternoon. Through Tuesday the cold front will bring a band of heavy rain East across the East too followed by a mix of sunshine and squally thundery showers in places through Wednesday. It will remain mild too but with a blustery SW wind and rather cooler weather still in the duller far North. On Thursday a drier interlude overnight will be replaced by another depression moving NE over Britain carrying another spell of strong winds and rain in a gusty SW wind across the South. Through Friday and the start of next weekend clearer and cooler air is shown by most models to cross SE through most areas with winds turning NW briefly as a brief ridge approaches from the West.
GFS then takes us through next weekend with further cloud and rain as a small Low is reluctant to clear East out of Southern areas with the North seeing a dry and brighter spell briefly. Then through the following week a few drier periods are likely in further warm Southerly breezes before a potentially stormy weather becomes shown late in the run as intense depressions cross the Atlantic over the heart of the UK with severe gales and heavy rain. Temperatures would fall to average levels and it would no doubt feel cold in the wind and rain.
UKMO this morning shows next weekend as still being unsettled with Saturday seeing rain clear SE behind a cold front with a much cooler and fresher feel likely. A drier interlude then looks likely before freshening Westerly winds bring cloud and rain back across the UK next Sunday.
GEM shows a more marked ridge next weekend bringing fine and cooler conditions to the South for a time next weekend. However, Low pressure to the North is shown to ensure improvements are muted and temporary as in the days that follow breezy West winds affect all again with a couple of cold fronts delivering a couple of spells of rain for all in temperatures much cooler and fresher than of late.
NAVGEM today concludes it's output with a strong SW flow chasing away a ridge of High pressure next weekend with a drying up Saturday followed by a return to strong winds and rain, especially in the North and West by the end of next Sunday.
ECM flattens any ridge next Saturday very quickly as the strong Atlantic Westerly flow following it overpowers the UK again with spells of rain and showers for all again as we move into next week. Low pressure is shown to cross the UK from the West and with a cooler Northern Atlantic source to such depressions it would be rather cooler and wet than that we have become accustomed too. Some gales would also be expected almost anywhere at times and in these it will feel chilly.
The GFS Ensembles today show an almost continuous period of Atlantic based Westerly winds with the current very mild conditions across much of Britain seeping away next weekend as fresher and cooler North Atlantic air spreads across all areas. However, it never looks like being cold over the coming few weeks with plenty of wind and rain at times for all with just brief drier interludes lasting less than a day looking more likely than not.
The Jet Stream this morning shows a confused pattern, especially later but in the short to medium term continues to pump NE across the UK having crossed the Atlantic on quite a Southern trajectory.
In Summary today it looks like a couple of weeks with Atlantic based winds driving the weather over the UK. In the first week with the trajectory of the depressions moving SW to NE across Western and Northern parts we can expect very mild weather to continue but through Week 2 it looks like that trajectory will shift to more of a West to East motion pulling colder North Atlantic air across the UK from next weekend bring temperatures back to average and making it feel cold in the strong Westerly flow. However, having said all that the air will never be frigid and there is little sign of any real cold, late Autumn weather anywhere with the incidence of frost and fog over the next few weeks kept to an absolute minimum or none at all for many. Sunshine amounts will be at a premium, experienced mostly during the showery days and gales can be expected on a number of occasions as always more so in the North and West.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset