The strength of the wording from the Met Office surprised me this morning:
"A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on
Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the
UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding. At this early
stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the
public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other
structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.
I mean, usually at this range they will avoid phrases like 'very intense' and 'exceptionally windy' due to the uncertainties. Same goes for 'falling trees' (usually just branches predicted at this stage).
Of this morning's 00z runs, GFS seems to be more or less in line with the above, while UKMO is a bit less intense, as is ECM by the looks of things.
On the other hand, UKMO and ECM have moved towards GFS since yesterday's 12z runs.
The 06z GFS is indeed weaker and further south, so we're a long way from sorted yet.
I'm still laughing at the timing of this thing; the day after my field trip studying the weather in Dorset comes to an end. Talk about a close shave!
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser