It's not confusing - it's just that Quantum keeps mis-spelling "Bering" (as in the Bering Strait) as "Bearing". It's been mentioned by several posters but good ol' Quantum keeps mis-spelling it!

A high over Bering can lead to an upper high forming over Greenland, extending southwards and thus eventually bringing a cold spell to us. On the other hand, it can instead just bring extra-cold air to Canada and the US, leading to a strong jet and westerlies (or SW'lies) for us. At present there remain no strong signals for a decent cold spell for most of us (referencing the criteria I mentioned several days ago) but that's just the here and now: nobody knows exactly what the models will be showing tomorrow, let alone next week!

/

Well said Darren, it also still November .. even if December isnt cold theres still Jan/Feb/Mar next year if thats what youre after

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

There does appear to be some FI agreement on a cold spell going on here... shame GEFS suites can shift substantially as a whole at that range, making the signal relatively weak unless the ensembles persist with this signal over the next 24 hours.

It is rather tenuous when it will only take the models overlooking a disturbance over the U.S. for things to go pear-shaped.

It's good to see the PV being given a rough time, though. As for the UK... a chilly shot on Friday - though ironically GFS has the highest temps of the week so far on that day for the south - followed by lots of settled weather about, particularly later next week... not a hard time, but a mostly boring one it has to be said, with temperatures across England rising towards double digits on some days in a long-fetch westerly flow.

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday November 26th 2013.

All models point to a rather cloudy and less chilly spell of weather developing over the UK from later today until Friday with a lot of cloud and hill fog and drizzle all in association with very High pressure near to the SW of Britain and moist air rounding the Northern flank of the High and down across the UK. On Friday a cold front moves SE across the UK bringing clearer and much drier air with a drop in temperature. Winds will become fresh and cold from the North or NW for a time with wintry showers possible in the North and East on Saturday before milder air begins to topple back down over the UK on Sunday following a frost, all this as High pressure is very dominant to the SW.

GFS then shows a couple of dry and quiet days across the South to start next week before cloudy and breezy weather moves down from the NW in association with a cold front with another band of lightening rain as it moves across Southern England. Things then turn much more unsettled, colder and windy across the UK albeit briefly with spells of rain with hill snow and strong winds, moving down from the North. This is then quickly replaced by High pressure once more toppling down from the NW to settle things down into a cold and frosty period before things turn rather mild again, especially in the North and West as a SW flow takes hold.

UKMO today closes it's run next Monday with High pressure still positioned SW of Ireland with little change in conditions from those we have currently with a mix of cloud and clear spells but mostly dry weather allowing patchy frost and fog by night but daytime temperatures held at reasonable levels due to a maritime NW flow.

GEM today shows High pressure still dominant either to the South or SW during the early and middle part of next week although the far North will have a wet and windy period. This then extends further South and East to all areas by next weekend.

NAVGEM keeps benign and relatively mild conditions well into the middle of next week with High pressure close to Southern Britain and a moist Westerly flow over the North. Frost and fog though possible would be uncommon as cloud cover will be quite extensive.

ECM this morning shows very slow changes to the anticyclonic pattern early next week, taking until the end of the week to turn things much more unsettled briefly with rain, strong winds then wintry showers. It does look though this will also be very temporary as a ridge to the West has nothing to support it and would likely topple back across the UK at the following weekend.

The GFS Ensembles show no really cold spell on offer this morning. There is a period when most members offer some rather cold weather for a time next week with no doubt a few wintry surprises for a few but it has good support not to last as the milder Atlantic air is shown to retrieve ground by the end of the output. There will be little rain for Southern Britain until well into next week.

The Jet Stream remains orientated badly for UK cold as it remains well to the north of the UK for some while yet before an injection and change to a WNW to ESE flow across Britain looks possible late next week before it rises back to Iceland late in the run.

In Summary today there is still little to cheer for those looking for deep cold and snow across the UK as High pressure remains stubbornly anchored close to South or SW Britain for another week warding off any major attempt of colder zonal conditions to move down from the North. There is a more marked attack of unsettled and windy conditions later next week when temperatures become rather chilly and no doubt some will see some wintriness for a time in among the wind and rain but the pattern is far from conducive to bring any one place anything more than a day or two of transient cold before milder air in association with Atlantic High pressure migrating back to the SW cuts off any supply with no Northern blocking or correct Jet Stream orientation to support anything different.

Thanks Martin.
Apart from some cooler stuff and no doubt some wintriness in the North at times, the Slug persists right into the first half of December by the looks of things.

I await the retraction and apologies from the Daily Express with baited breath

You'll be waiting a long time. They'll be picking up on a wintry shower on Cairngorm this weekend and turning into a UK wide blizzard.

I am slightly surprised by your comment Neil, I have to admit.

I have been watching the ECM ensemble mean charts for a few days now and there has been a slow but steady trend to move from the current high pressure (slug) dominated pattern into what might be described as a period of cold zonality.  This is driven by a slow but steady repositioning of the core of the polar vortex away from Greenland and towards the Russian side of the Arctic. Coupled with that the high pressure has eased south and weakened a touch, with pressure falling over the British Isles.

The position of the ensemble mean 0C 850hPa isotherm has drifted slowly south - the T240 position 3 days ago put it across the Scottish border.  The T+168 chart from the 00z puts it in exactly the same place, which suggests the general pattern is quite well modelled at the moment.   The current T+240 chart puts the -4C isotherm across the Scottish border and the 0C isotherm across mid-France.   So, there's a 4C drop in the mean temperature in 3 days.

Mean 500hPa/SLP chart at T+240:

Mean 850hPa chart at T+240:

The pattern is still not remotely blocked and, as Darren commented earlier, plunges of cold air across North America are doing what they often do and causing cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard.  But at least cold zonality will make it feel seasonal.

I'm quite liking the current conditions - cold, dank & very early-winterish.

You're more shielded from the wetness of 'cold zonality' (which rarely gives anything other than rain here), so I don't find 'cold zonality' particularly seasonal. Just wet.

Hi Saint,  I am inclined to agree - cold zonality offers even less down here. But it's one step closer to colder conditions and means that eastern Europe should be colder, if a block should develop near Scandi. 

The 00z ECM ensemble chart shows the mean remaining in the cold and rather unsettled category through FI.

London:

That says 'cold zonality' to me, backing up the trend from days 8 to 10.

Maxima around 5-7C and minima around 3-4C.

brave call gandalf.  looks to be enough low windspeed runs to say that it shows either a continuation of mlb or mobile wsw. im sure there are some cold zonal runs aswell. there are fifty members after all !

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

A Cold Snap Later Next Week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Once again, as with Novembers cold snap, it appears to rely on how much we can amplify the ridge in the Atlantic. We haven't got the grestest pattern to work with, but we could get a couple of days of cold northerly winds later next week, IMO.

I only say what I see, with perhaps a bit of experience and conjecture about the upstream patterns thrown in.
As of 00Z 26th Nov I see nothing other than sinusoidal mobility to the North with higher pressure persitant to our South or SW.
Coldish snaps with quieter spells in between in other words.
Yes there may be signs of something stirring which will try to lift heights to our NW but it's tentative.

Genius. 

... and I would agree with Neil's assessment.

Hopefully not too brave Nick.  Just looking at the trends in the ECM output - but of course it could all change in a week from now.

In which case.... oops....

As you know, I wasn't suggesting any height rises - in fact I said there was no evidence of it at all.  But you don't need upper heights for cold zonality, you just need the parent LP to be far enough east to ensure the flow is north of west and not south-west.

I was just looking at my favourite November (1962) and reminding myself that there nothing in many of those charts to hint at what was to come 6-8 weeks later.  I'm not doing a Daily Express but just highlighting how a pattern can change abruptly from mild mediocrity.

IIRC the severe cold spells that came at the end of 2009 and 2010 were both preceded by a spell of mild and unsettled weather. In fact, November 2009 was exceptionally wet in many places with much flooding, especially in Cumbria which was particularly badly hit. No-one at that time I'm sure would have put much if any money on the major pattern change that occured a few weeks later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

Just punch in the required date.

I've just run through the November 2009 archives and there wasn't any blocking to the north - just some over central Russia and later over northern/Arctic Canada

This was the 2009 chart for today:

So - has 2010 replaced 62/63 as peoples dream winter scenario?

discuss....