Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday November 26th 2013.
All models point to a rather cloudy and less chilly spell of weather developing over the UK from later today until Friday with a lot of cloud and hill fog and drizzle all in association with very High pressure near to the SW of Britain and moist air rounding the Northern flank of the High and down across the UK. On Friday a cold front moves SE across the UK bringing clearer and much drier air with a drop in temperature. Winds will become fresh and cold from the North or NW for a time with wintry showers possible in the North and East on Saturday before milder air begins to topple back down over the UK on Sunday following a frost, all this as High pressure is very dominant to the SW.
GFS then shows a couple of dry and quiet days across the South to start next week before cloudy and breezy weather moves down from the NW in association with a cold front with another band of lightening rain as it moves across Southern England. Things then turn much more unsettled, colder and windy across the UK albeit briefly with spells of rain with hill snow and strong winds, moving down from the North. This is then quickly replaced by High pressure once more toppling down from the NW to settle things down into a cold and frosty period before things turn rather mild again, especially in the North and West as a SW flow takes hold.
UKMO today closes it's run next Monday with High pressure still positioned SW of Ireland with little change in conditions from those we have currently with a mix of cloud and clear spells but mostly dry weather allowing patchy frost and fog by night but daytime temperatures held at reasonable levels due to a maritime NW flow.
GEM today shows High pressure still dominant either to the South or SW during the early and middle part of next week although the far North will have a wet and windy period. This then extends further South and East to all areas by next weekend.
NAVGEM keeps benign and relatively mild conditions well into the middle of next week with High pressure close to Southern Britain and a moist Westerly flow over the North. Frost and fog though possible would be uncommon as cloud cover will be quite extensive.
ECM this morning shows very slow changes to the anticyclonic pattern early next week, taking until the end of the week to turn things much more unsettled briefly with rain, strong winds then wintry showers. It does look though this will also be very temporary as a ridge to the West has nothing to support it and would likely topple back across the UK at the following weekend.
The GFS Ensembles show no really cold spell on offer this morning. There is a period when most members offer some rather cold weather for a time next week with no doubt a few wintry surprises for a few but it has good support not to last as the milder Atlantic air is shown to retrieve ground by the end of the output. There will be little rain for Southern Britain until well into next week.
The Jet Stream remains orientated badly for UK cold as it remains well to the north of the UK for some while yet before an injection and change to a WNW to ESE flow across Britain looks possible late next week before it rises back to Iceland late in the run.
In Summary today there is still little to cheer for those looking for deep cold and snow across the UK as High pressure remains stubbornly anchored close to South or SW Britain for another week warding off any major attempt of colder zonal conditions to move down from the North. There is a more marked attack of unsettled and windy conditions later next week when temperatures become rather chilly and no doubt some will see some wintriness for a time in among the wind and rain but the pattern is far from conducive to bring any one place anything more than a day or two of transient cold before milder air in association with Atlantic High pressure migrating back to the SW cuts off any supply with no Northern blocking or correct Jet Stream orientation to support anything different.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset