It's good to see GFS back to showing a proper northerly again. With ECM steady in showing a sub-minus 10 event at the 850hPa level for many of us, it's not a bad thing to be looking at to start December IMO
GFS shows snow showers streaming inland for the best part of a whole day, but they're confined to a narrow strip through N. Wales and central parts of the UK.
ECM keeps the unstable northerly airflow going for about 24 hours longer than GFS, so the showers would keep on coming for longer too.
Beyond that, the PV energy looks certain to drift into the Atlantic and generate some activity there, but at the same time blocking looks like edging west through Scandinavia as the Scandi trough sinks south to prop it up, which is always of some interest when we have a UK high over here.
The GFS 00z op run showed the Atlantic ramping up to maximum, beating off the Scandi block, with only wafts of continental air getting caught up in the flow - milder days dominate FI, though nothing exceptional despite the high 850's involved.
The ECM 00z op run becomes more complex than that, as rather than bundling together into one region of furious activity, the Atlantic energy is split apart, with a fair bit dropping south to the Azores while the rest scoots off to Siberia. As the Scandi trough sinks through eastern parts of Europe, blocking to the NE has only one way to go - west through Scandinavia. The day 10 chart shows a bowling ball of cold to our east with good trough support beneath... but I can't see enough amplification in the upstream ridge to prevent the cold from being deflected SW through France as the UK high barely shifts.
Interesting times, whatever we end up with
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