Where?

I thought we had put this to bed earlier?  That is not a Bartlett pattern.

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Get Ready Aberdeen and Edinburgh, Michael and Doc you should be on Alert Thursday and early on Friday for some Severe Gales and lots of Heavy blustery Blizzards type Snow Showers, and take it easy as a High Wind Chill and Very below Normal Temperatures are expect for your part of Scotland.

The UKMO and the GFS show W Europe to UK High Pressure domination, and a brief Low Pressure crosses Central and North UK on Sunday, then back to SSW or Southerly winds Sunday and onwards right upto Wednesday 18th Dec. 2013.

The Low P affects us Thursday with a band of heavy rain that quickly clears out on Friday, with the NNW winds, and Heavy wintry showers for mostly Central N and the East of the UK, Thursday and early on Friday.

The High Pressure affects us Thursday in the SW and moves in by Friday especially in the Central and South- same on Saturday but it still be cold or chilly and Frost early and Late.

It is very unsettled away from the W Europe and UK High in the Iceland, Northwest and Central N Atlantic up Northeast through to Svalbard, with Low P, a good rounds of them move in a SW from to the NE direction- likely affect NW and Western Norwegian Sea as well.

It looks cloudy for us, and it could be chilly or cold/ or alternately cool and not that frosty, it might though be frosty at night if the Contenental Flow is chilly cold.

If the Atlantic systems move closer to UK, but not go through it, then West and SW winds will win!!.

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Yes it is, high pressure over SW europe, low pressure to the north, mild and wet in NW scotland. Thats about as bartlettly as you can get. 

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No it is not. Check the definition and you will see that no one single area of High pressure in isolation could ever be described as a "Bartlett" (on top of what Gandalf correctly says). The "Bartlett high" is more of a long term scenario not one run showing high pressure over continental Europe for a few days.

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Next person to mention a Bartlett will be banned forever. As will the next anallity that corrects them











😉

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Sorry to crash the GEM appreciation society but if that comes off I'll eat my hamster. The ECM solution is likely to be the only show in town.

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At least gem and CFS throw us a couple of straws. Shame they're small time models. Otherwise i feel sick when the model grinch spoils the fun after recent promise.
To be honest the only faith left is in the met office long/ mid range hints of cold over Xmas.

Fair enough. 😁

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Mind you if either Gem or CFS came off Moomin would be spitting feathers!!

Looking at the output from the big three,this could be one of the driest Decembers I've ever know.

Hmmmmm

Not sure quite what to make of tonights ecm - the amount of energy it shows on the t240 chart, with 2 deep lps to the north seems odd, although a moderated version could happen ofc.

I think on balance the already low percentage chance of cold uppers and a decent easterly has diminished further tonight, although low level cold for my neck of the woods is still a reasonable bet. Suspect that'll mean cold and grey sadly although we could get lucky and pull in enough drier air to clear things up a bit

On the GEM front will be interesting to see how it comes out of the current pattern verification wise - it was doing pretty well lately (better than GFS irrc), who knows it might be right again

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Yes, there was a bit of drizzle this morning and we will probably see a brief spell of light stuff from tomorrow's fizzling front, then GFS shows a bit of rain on Sunday. Apart from that it looks pretty well bone dry until the start of Christmas week!

 

I'm sure the long-term average will be made up by epic snowstorms in Jan and Feb.

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Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs of the big 5 weather modules and what they mean for us at the surface over the coming few weeks from today Wednesday December 4th 2013.

All models show a rapidly deepening depression moving East to the North of Scotland while Southern Britain lies under a weak ridge of High pressure tonight. Through the night winds increase markedly over Scotland then Northern England with severe gales and storm force gusts in places. An area of rain will move South too, heavy and squally briefly before clearer and colder weather with a continuation of severe gales and developing wintry showers of sleet or snow across Scotland by the end of the day. England and Wales will also see winds increase with a weak band of rain towards the end of tomorrow, however winds are not expected to be troublesome here with rainfall at a minimum too. Thereafter a cold and dry Friday once remaining wintry showers clear the NE leads into a milder trend over the weekend and start of next week as High pressure crosses ESE over the South and away to NW Europe where is it looks like settling for some considerable time.

GFS tonight then shows little change to these synoptics for virtually the remainder of the run with SSW winds blowing up across the UK with the mildest conditions over the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas stay fine and possibly cloudy but less mild then further NW.

UKMO tonight closes it's run with High pressure close to the Netherlands with a light Southerly feed over the UK. All areas look like staying dry and relatively mild in any brighter spells and in the lee of high ground to the South. There is still the risk of patchy frost and fog at night across the SE in particular.

GEM shows High pressure building over Scandinavia towards the middle and end to next week before High pressure transfers to Greenland swamping the UK in colder winds from Europe with some clearer air making for some frost at night in shelter from the SE wind.

NAVGEM shows High pressure towards Central Europe with a ridge towards the UK and the Jet Stream roaring over the top of the High over Scandinavia. This keeps many areas fine and dry with a lot of cloud and average temperatures or above for all, coldest in the SE.

ECM tonight shows a sobering though for cold lovers tonight as it shows High pressure covering most of mainland Europe with dry weather extending across much of he UK too. With a broad SW flow temperatures look mild or very mild for some with occasional rain at times possible towards the NW at times.

The GFS Ensembles show good support for very much warmer conditions aloft next week and probably beyond. At the surface it may also be mild as South or SW winds mix the air out to bring some of that mild air to all at times. As usual at the end of the run natural variability between various solutions ensues with no definitive trend to be drawn from that range.

The Jet Stream tonight shows the flow moving NE to the NW of the British Isles after the temporary diversion SE down the North Sea for the next 24-48hrs. It shows very little sign of deviating from this location for the foreseeable future tonight.

In Summary tonight leaving GEM's operational fanatics aside all models support a sustained period of potentially mild and benign weather for the foreseeable future once the gales and coldness of the next few days dissolves away. High pressure looks destined to become slow moving to the SE of Britain with South or SW winds driving mild and cloudy weather from the East Atlantic over Northern and Western areas at least. Southern and Eastern parts may also be mild at times though winds from a more SE direction at times could direct some rather colder air across at the surface with the risk of overnight fog and frost patches. Amounts of rain over the two weeks looks small.

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Some of these charts here on GFS are enough to give the coldies a heart attack.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Many of these could see a 14C or 15C even.

Mustn't use the "B"word.

 

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Switch alert. A revised signal being picked-up again by the GFS tonight?

Edit: Maybe not, but the heights building to the NE are looking a bit more robust again.

 

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Possibly. The GFS 18z at t120 has pressure at 15mb higher to our N/NE than the equivalent chart in the 12z. Let's see what difference it makes as the run develops. Maybe a similar run to GEM 12z?

Edit - GFS 18z beyond t120 continues to model the LP development around Iceland very differently from GEM preventing the Scandi High development as per GEM.

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It tries to ridge north a couple of times but soon gets flattened.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm 

And with pressure staying high over the Med there is nowhere for the jet to go other than over the top.

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Good evening folks,

Tentative signs in the GEFS that a height rise tward Scandinavia could happen, there are a few runs which are going for this pattern, cherry picking GEFS member number 10 is somthing what were after. Well if you want cold weather that is. ?:D



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=10&ech=372&mode=0&carte=1 

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Brilliant?

Beautiful?

or perhaps Boring?

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Do you still "get it" though? Darren said you do 😉 I think you now get it that it's going to be relatively mild for many as predicted. For a while anyway.

As an olive branch, the season tis young.

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Well, the ECM 12z was another outlier on days 9 & 10

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html 

Not much evidence of your mild weather there, is there?

I'm reluctant to predict how the pattern will evolve next week. Certainly a few days of average temps for eastern & central England and milder to the west. I think you have to accept that the position of the high pressure cell is quite finely balanced and a SE drift is a possibility, as much as something milder.

If you prefer days of boring mildish nothingness then you might be in luck. 🙂

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High res WRF model suggests suprise snowcover for west yorkshire tommorow morning. 

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My comment was aimed at you and the others saying the 0z ECM was mild yesterday. You looked at the operational ECM, fell for the "orange trap" and assumed it meant mild. It didn't as you and the others would have seen when the 2M temperature plots became available later yesterday morning. Gandalf was able to spot that the ECM wasn't mild and thus he "got it".

The ECM ensembles incidentally have backed away from a cold outlook and now show an entirely average outlook - highs of 7 to 9C for London in the medium term. It remains to be seen whether that's a trend that's maintained today. The 18z GEFS also shows an average spell on the way (temperature wise) with its mean temperature having slowly fallen over the course of the four runs yesterday. The dryness is likely to be more notable than the temperatures by the looks of things!

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GEM 144 is loaded with eastern promise.

Note the tell tale southward nosing of the Arctic High towards Svalbard, WAA and the ample reserve of very cold air to the east thanks to the Siberian / East Scandi trough. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif

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