Indeed, GEM is lovely to look at this morning. ECM on the other hand isn't having any of it, instead keeping high pressure anchored close to the UK. 

The GEFS contrinues its trend of showing near-average conditions with a gradual cooling as December progresses:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

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I was more making a point of why one would labour over one cold solution in the evidence of an overwhelming milder outlook. If I or anyone else did that over a mild outlier we would be accused of trolling as per GTW yesterday. That was MY point. Not that I'm accusing you of trolling. Just highlighting the fact that some people just genuinely don't like cold weather.

So here we are. Still looking predominately mild-ish for some time after a cold blip. I've worked out that mild winters go hand in hand with England doing crap at cricket [sn_tong]

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Hi everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday December 5th 2013.

All models show a deep depression running ESE across the northern North Sea and down into Central Europe tonight and tomorrow. A spell of windy weather is shown for all with severe gale or even storm force gusts of wind in the North later today for a time. A cold front also moves South with a band of rain reaching Southern England this evening followed by clearer and cold conditions with snow showers across the North by tonight, transferring to NE Britain while most other areas see decreasing winds and clear skies along with a frost. High pressure then moves in close to the South tomorrow as a warm front moves around the top of the High across Britain late tomorrow and on Saturday returning the UK to milder and cloudy weather but dry conditions once early rain and sleet clears the NE. This then heralds a prolonged period of stagnant conditions across the UK.

GFS shows Westerly winds to start next week gradually backing Southerly with increasingly mild conditions expected especially over the North and West with a little rain and drizzle possible over hills and coasts at times. In the South and East though technically similar conditions overhead it may well be a little less mild here with less breeze and slightly drier air allowing the risk of some mist and frost patches if skies clear to any degree overnight. Through the remiander of the run High pressure continues to have complete control over our weather with dry and cloudy conditions likely to continue with temperatures close to average under an inversion most of the time.

UKMO closes it's run next Wednesday with High pressure stretching from Southern Britain to the Baltic Sea. Much of England and Wales would be largely calm and cloudy and possibly rather cold feeling. Should the general cloud cover break from the SE then frost and fog could develop making it very cold locally. Scotland and Northern Ireland would stay rather cloudy and certainly milder with a little hill fog and drizzle near Western coasts.

GEM today continues to show a very wintry situation developing as the latter part of next week develops. High pressure which stretches from the UK to the Baltic midweek intensifies North to Scandinavia as a surge of cold Russian air moves West on the Southern flank of the High at the same time as a deep Western Atlantic Low pumps troughs down towards Iberia and Biscay which intensifies a strong and bitter East flow with potential for snowfall across Southern Britain by the second weekend.

NAVGEM maintains High pressure on a more Southerly latitude continuing the static and rather cloudy Southerly drift over the UK later next week. It will feel a little colder in the SE with the flow from a Continental land source but chill rather than cold would be the feel while the NW stays quite mild.

ECM today too holds High pressure more towards the SE of the UK rather than East with the UK well and truly on the warm side of this feature with gentle SW winds and mostly cloudy skies the likely weather pattern. Some drier and colder air could skirt the far SE at times making it less mild here and later in the run Low pressure troughs would be closing in on NW Britain with increasing winds and a greater threat of rain likely here by next weekend.

The GFS Ensembles show a markedly dry period coming up for December with little if any noteworthy rain events shown by hardly any member through the period. In addition a sustained spell of mild uppers cover the UK in a Southerly drift from Southern Europe or the Southern part of the North Atlantic. There is a slow trend towards more average conditions late in the run but this looks due to natural variability in members's predictions at that range rather than a particular trend.

The Jet Stream shows the flow diving SE down the North Sea around the deep Atlantic storm to the NE today. Thereafter it surges NE back towards Iceland and Northern waters where it remain blowing strongly for almost the entire period from the SW.

In Summary there is still little excitement in the weather patterns over the UK for the next couple of weeks. With the Jet stream blowing very strongly East and NE well to the NW of the UK for the foreseeable there is little manouevreability for High pressure over Europe to edge North next week to Scandinavia to change the pattern to something more wintry. GEM manages to do it though for the second operational run in a row but looks very isolated among a pack of much milder benign options which all show a light Southerly flow with warm uppers wafting up across the UK. As it's winter inversions are likely to form over the UK with a lot of cloud trapping some colder air at times near the surface and this is likely to occur next week across the South and East at times while the North and NE have the chance to achieve some very mild value temperatures at times in the weak SW flow. It is currently hard to see where and when we will break out of this pattern with the clock ticking to what would be a very dry and benign December if the charts verify up to later December as is shown this morning but we must always remember a week or two is a long time in meteorological terms and things can change fairly quickly and probably will.

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UKMO looks quite interesting but doesnt quite make it

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

 

GEM has clearly been snorting a Nigella special

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Anyone tempted to take model output at face value need only look at this weekend's events.
Only a relatively short time ago (five days) most of the models were projecting a wintry few days for most of the UK (an 'Arctic Blast' even), with a swathe of sub -10 uppers flooding the country from Friday to Sunday. A blend of solutions predicted almost ice days for many with snow showers or even spells of snow in coastal locations and down the East.
Hwat we have in reality (for most of the UK) is a cool day tommorow with maybe a wintry shower in Cheshire with milder air pushing across on Saturday.
The point I'm making is that the models have limitations, and the almost infinite complexity of the atmosphere still leaves them wanting at times.
This crucial principle should be remembered when making announcements like 'it's mild for two weeks at least' or 'CFS has an easterly blast so expect snow on Christmas Eve', etc.

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Bang on Neil, but the problem is - what then is the point of this thread? Should we restrict ourselves to 2-3 days worth of charts? Or should there be two threads - one for short term and then one for all the hope-casting, and trolling, and cherry-picking based on perturbation 18?

(I don't know the answer BTW!)

Possibly but this GEM run is siimilar to the CFS run from last night, it's shown something similar twice now and in fact better on this run. Agree likely it will moderate to match ECM and GFS, but sometimes other models have led the big two BOM has done it as has Navgem. Granted not often and grasping at straws, but anything better than the prospect of meh weather with dull mild conditions day in day out for two weeks or more.

I think you'll find it's Pert 19

Yes of course we need this thread and over the years I have not supported the idea of splitting the discussions as you suggest because the mix of banter and detail in here is unique and most of the time works well.
On the subject of how far we should go ahead: If data is available to view then it's open to discussion, and actually only by analysing and discussing can one learn what the limitations are, which model is favoured in what situation, etc.

Now swerving back on topic before a moderator locks me down, I was beginning to loose enthusiasm for any chance of a HLB to our northeast yesterday, but whilst even just one of the 'lesser' models keeps it there in it's longer range, options have to remain open. The METO text forecast has threaded this low potential nicely into it's longer range post yesterday.

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Agree, if GEM drops it on the next run odds on we will have to wait until late December for the next cold shot opportunity possibly.

..and shall be time warped to the winter of 88-89 until they have a better understanding of what a Bartlett high is!

There are a few GEM 00z ensemble members that hint at a similar scenario, but the Op was definitely the Money Shot.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=1&mode=1&ech=216

 

 

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no change on GFS 06z

 

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http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

The cold clustering has gradually disappeared from the ECM ens. From the 12th onwards there is a massive spread so very little can be deduced except that high pressure will be nearby.

My general intepretation is still benign until after mid month where there is the odd signal for things to cool off. However the GEM run is something that cannot be completely disregarded especially since it has gone for the same pattern twice in a row. I suspect it will dissapear tonight, or by tommorow. But I have more uncertainty than usual regarding the pattern over the next few weeks while the GEM continues to throw a spanner into the consistancy. 

 

Anyway I can now see light at the end of the tunnel, with things becoming more interesting in the arctic towards the end of the runs. Yet again high pressure is trying to build from the pacific. Okay we only got a 2 day cold spell out of it this time and it took roughly 10 days for it to affect the UK. The interesting thing is, the interesting synoptics start to appear at the 15th, and the GFS has almost indentical situ to what we had 2 weeks ago in that part of the world. 15+10 = 25 

The ECM has the HP more towards Eurasia which would propagate a cold spell faster than the former scenario, but it would also depend on a scandi high not collapsing so its a bit tenuous. Not really confident enough to forecast a cold spell as such just yet, but at least the models are worth watching again. 

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Not looking like extreme cold in the near future. One prominent marker is the lack of posts by a certain Steve M, both here and in the other place... He's always more prevalent when the outlook heads to the freezr.

FWIW, the 0z ECM control tries to build a Scandinavian High around 144. It fails (sinking over Poland). Another high then tries to build over Scandinavia but that also fails (around 264). A weak trough crosses the UK and then high pressure moves NE'wards, settling over Scandinavia by 336. 360 sees SSE'lies and SE'lies over the UK with a large high over Scandinavia and a deep low to the west of Scotland.

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Thanks Darren

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Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Very Dry December?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks like we're keeping anticyclonic influences for the forseeable future.

Written part of the page also has a summary of today's severe weather, BTW.

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There will be no issue in keeping ourselves warm right upto 14th December, Saturday.

The Dominating High Controls much of UK and Europe's Weather. Those living in Iceland will see visiting Passing Low Pressure and some High Pressure on some occasions- mostly Low P though rules them.

Svalbard will remain cold with Visting and Persistant PV Low and remains cold wintry, and Similarly plenty also in NE Canada and Newfoundland through South Greenland NW and North Atlanrtic plus much of Norwegian Sea.

Next Week Some Arctic High ringing through Iceland, linked to milder Europe high for 48 hours.

It amplifies the low Pressure belt later in Week that strengthens the PV low's and they merge in the West to East NE Flow. With mild SW Flow for Iceland and Norway up to West SW Norwegian Sea and North to NE Atlantic. Through next Several days, only a short NW flow behind it as it crosses SE arctic well NE of N Atlantic and Through Norwegian Sea, A Short NW flow in NE Europe Norway at its tail.

I See the Cold Arctic Air Over Canada Greenland and SE Arctic being Buffeted by the West SW flow Low pressures, with Canada NE USA Newfoundland and Greenland Plus Svalbard often under Cold Arctic Plunges, but they Support ongoing Positive NAO West SW to NE Tracks of Low pressure they the Arctic High Pressure Generates.

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Temps from GFS 12z a tad lower than previous runs IMBY

6C 8C 9C 8C 7C 6C 6C 8C 5C 3C 3C 5C 6C 4C

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Glimmer of hope on the ECM @ 168 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120512/ECH1-96.GIF?05-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php 

192

Will the cold come our way?

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Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday December 5th 2013.

All models show the severe storm to affect the North and East today abating overnight as the storm moves East over Europe. many coastal areas are at risk from flooding at the high tides overnight. Elsewhere the weather quickly calms down as a ridge of High pressure moves across from the West. By tomorrow a warm front crosses East around the Northern flank of High pressure over carrying a band of rain across Northern areas and increasing cloud for all. By the weekend all areas will be under much quieter weather with fine and cloudy weather with temperatures close to the seasonal normal, apattern that remains in place for the early part of next week.

GFS then shows a sustained period of tranquil and benign conditions with light to moderate winds from between SE and SW with a NW/SE split developing later with any rainfall restricted to NW areas while the South and East look like staying largely dry throughout the run. Temperatures would be mild for most but with some colder surface air across the South at times with some areas of mist and fog possible.

UKMO closes it's run with High pressure away to the East and ESE with a slack South or SE flow over the UK with fine weather predominating across the UK. The mildest conditions will be in the NW whereas Southern and SE Britain may experience less mild conditions with some mist and fog at times and a touch of frost should skies clear by night.

GEM tonight has dropped it's wintry scenario of this morning with a movement towards the other models in maintaining largely dry and cloudy weather with the 'will it' 'won't it clear' being the determining factor on how things feel at the surface.

NAVGEM also shows a mild and breezy Southerly feed across the UK next week with High pressure out to the East. It will be dry and the mildest weather will be likely in the West with somewhat colder and less breezy weather possible towards the East at times.

ECM tonight shows High pressure to the East and SE building across the UK with quiet and benign conditions with a lot of cloud overall. However, the chance of some clearer weather at times will increase the risk of fog dramatically and some frost may also occur locally should this occur. Late in the run High pressure does migrate to Scandinavia briefly with some rather chillier conditions for a while but with the Jet flow still riding over the top it only has one place to go and that is shown in the end days of the run as it sinks South into Europe, though for the UK in this run colder air may well hold on with some frost and fog by night, especially in the East.

The GFS Ensembles shows the general trend of maintaining High pressure based weather across the UK for the entire run tonight. Any rain is most likely towards the NW with very little elsewhere as High pressure is biased to be positioned over Southern Britain or to the SE. The uppers are almost universally well above average across the UK through the entire run tonight once the current cold blip dissolves over the next 48hrs.

The Jet Stream shows a continuous train of a NE flow crossing the Atlantic and up to iceland and northern Scandinavia keeping the UK well and truly on the warm side of the flow with next to no change shown tonight over the coming two weeks.

In Summary the weather looks like becoming locked in a pattern that could stick around for a couple of weeks and maybe until Christmas. The main culprit is a strong Jet flow which becomes anchored in a strong and NE moving conveyor belt across the Atlantic up to Iceland and across to Northern Scandinavia over the coming two weeks. With High pressure over Europe and maybe Southern Britain the weather is likely to become stuck in a rut with the only differences day to day being the amount of cloud cover and whether it becomes mild or not. It will not become very cold anywhere if tonight's chart verify but if skies clear and a continental drift to the wind moves across the South then widespread fog problems could arise along with a touch of frost. As a result of this a slow clearance through the day of fog would result in cold conditions in places. On the other hand if the wind shifts more to the SW which is indicated by some output mild conditions could develop with temperatures well above average at times. We'll have to see how it pans out day to day but all in all there is little excitement for weather observers to look forward to tonight.

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[/quote]

Nice to see a fellow Banbury resident here

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What goes up...must come down.

Those here that prefer colder weather in winter would wish this pattern could all be shunted a couple of thousand miles further west.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

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