Hi everyone. Here is this morning's look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday December 6th 2013.
HEADLINE: No Cold weather in sight.
All models show a High pressure area drifting ESE towards Northern France. This provides a Westerly flow to bring milder Atlantic air across the UK on a Westerly breeze with a warm front on the leading edge carrying a band of rain and drizzle across the UK, preceded by a little snow on Northern high ground. This moist West flow then remains in place for the next two to three days with some troughs giving further mostly light rain at times in the NW while many other areas stay largely cloudy, relatively mild and dry.
GFS then shows High pressure inching a little further East next week allowing winds to back South or SE and this will have the effect of keeping Northern areas mild and cloudy with some drizzle over hills and coasts while Southern areas become somewhat less mild at times as drier continental air feeds across the channel at times, especially to the SE with some night fog and a touch of frost possible but some daytime sunshine too. However, despite this it can hardly be described as cold and milder air will filter back across at times, especially later in the run when the North and West turn rather windier with rain at times as troughs to the North and West move closer in on the mild SW wind.
UKMO today shows High pressure retreating somewhat further away East next week with Low pressure to the West strengthening the Southerly flow for a time with troughs just to the West possibly carrying some rain North up the Western side of the UK then NE across Scotland. Many Eastern parts should stay dry and possibly bright with the mildest conditions likely in the West and North.
GEM this morning keeps a very mild South or SW flow going across the UK for all of next week and weekend as High pressure stubbornly remains near Germany feeding mild or at times potentially very mild uppers up across the UK from the South. While not always very mild at the surface normal value temperatures would be achieved for all in the Southerly breeze and the potential remains for some very mild conditions to develop if sufficient breeze mixes out the air to the lee of high ground.
NAVGEM too keeps quite a brisk breeze from the South or SW and with this mixing of the air all areas should be on the mild side, very much so at times and though dry for the best part of next week fronts would move into Northern and Western areas by next weekend with rain at times.
ECM today also shows High pressure maintained to the East or ESE and therefore the pattern will be the same as the other outputs in that a period of benign and quiescent weather is maintained with a lot of cloud and mild conditions on a light Southerly drift. It may feel a little chillier in the East and South at times as a drift from the SE moves across the channel with some chillier nights giving rise to the possibility of fog patches but overall the pattern remains locked solid at Day 10 with any rain only likely in the far NW.
The GFS Ensembles today show rock solid support for two weeks of mild and generally settled conditions around High pressure slow moving over Europe. The only trend later maybe the ingress of Atlantic fronts moving deeper into the North and West of the UK late in the run on stronger SW winds but even then the South is shown to avoid much of any rain.
The Jet Stream remains locked in a pattern that will keep the UK relatively mild for the foreseeable future. It is shown to blow strongly in a NE orientation across the Atlantic and on towards Northern Scandinavia preventing any chance of significant ridging North of the European High and therefore not only keeping the UK mild but much of Western and Northern Europe too.
In Summary this morning this morning's synopses reminds me of the mild Winter's of early in the millenium years when much of the time we were bathed in similar synoptics to that of today. Now I'm not saying that this will be the course of this Winter but it certainly will be for the next couple of weeks. We have the Jet Stream to blame which is orientated totally wrongly for any chance of cold for the UK for some considerable time to come. It is also too strong at the moment in it's relentless progression NE over the Atlantic towards Iceland and Northern Scandinavia. This prevents any chance of any meaningful ridging North of the European High towards Northern Europe and therefore prevents anything moving West on it's Southern flank to usher in change. With this strong Jet to the NW it also maintains High pressure in situ so though not technically a blocked situation there is little room for change in synoptics quickly. So as it stands for the time being we have to try and predict local small scale changes day to day on whether cloud breaks enable temperatures to rise to very mild levels or whether days of anticyclonic gloom, mist or fog prevail over Eastern and Southern parts at times keeping things at least a little cooler. Rain will be a rare commodity overall restricted to the North and West on occasions.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset