Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's rather shorter than usual report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Friday December 6th 2013.
All models show a Westerly flow over the UK following a warm front moving East over the North with High pressure close to Southern England. Over the coming days this changes little drifting slowly down into France maintaining relatively mild and rather cloudy weather across the UK with a band of rain and snow clearing East out of Scotland overnight tonight leaving all areas in the same air mass with Western ocasts and hills at risk of drizzle at times with any breaks more likely to the East of hills and in the South. Through next week there may be a period of slightly colder conditions across the South as winds back SE briefly before SW winds look like taking hold again towards the end of the week with mild conditions generally and some rain to Northern and Western extremities.
In Week 2 all models that go out that far maintain the status-quo with High pressure to the SE of the UK with SW winds and mild conditions and occasional rain in the North and West with very little signs of change as far as the models can see tonight.
The GFS Ensembles continue to show mild weather over the UK for the foreseeable future with few exceptions from the members to this rule. Though dry through Week 1 there seems a slow trend for blocking to the SE to recede somewhat to allow Atlantic troughs and stronger winds to make more progress down over the UK later in Week 2 with some rain for all. However, temperatures will remain distinctly mild feeling despite this.
The Jet Stream continues to run NE well to the NW of Britain steering all rain bearing fronts and depressions around the Northern flank of the European High and onward over Northern Scandinavia. There are just the merest hints of it slipping down towards the UK in a NE direction towards the end of week 2 which is reflected by the GFS trend of more rainfall for more areas at the end of the run.
In Summary tonight there is nothing to say that hasn't been said already with the Northern arm of the Jet being steered strongly NE well to the NW of Britain around the periphery of a European High which remains dominant throughout the coming two weeks. It's position shuffles around a bit with a slight difference to this morning in that it now looks that less time involving a continental feed is likely from tonight's output suggesting that any cooler and misty days in the South towards midweek could well be short-lived with mild SW winds soon returning with attendant cloud cover but precious little rainfall. As I look towards the position in two weeks time there is little to suggest currently that mild weather won't continue for some time to come after the expiry of the runs, possibly out to Christmas.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset