Wake me up when it's over 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120612/ECH1-216.GIF?06-0 

Surely it isn't very common to have persistant periods of severely cold uppers (i.e. -20s) spread as far south in the N Atlantic just off NEastern USA, is it? Or is my memory playing tricks on me?  As long as this continues, there's every chance that the 'status quo' (i.e strong jet to our N) will go on and on, IMO.  

That said, our Aleutian high, which I think is a feature most winters, is continously projected to ridge into the Canadian Arctic so will this lead to a change in stratospheric and atmospheric circulations with time? 

David

Northallerton

Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's rather shorter than usual report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Friday December 6th 2013.

All models show a Westerly flow over the UK following a warm front moving East over the North with High pressure close to Southern England. Over the coming days this changes little drifting slowly down into France maintaining relatively mild and rather cloudy weather across the UK with a band of rain and snow clearing East out of Scotland overnight tonight leaving all areas in the same air mass with Western ocasts and hills at risk of drizzle at times with any breaks more likely to the East of hills and in the South. Through next week there may be a period of slightly colder conditions across the South as winds back SE briefly before SW winds look like taking hold again towards the end of the week with mild conditions generally and some rain to Northern and Western extremities.

In Week 2 all models that go out that far maintain the status-quo with High pressure to the SE of the UK with SW winds and mild conditions and occasional rain in the North and West with very little signs of change as far as the models can see tonight.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show mild weather over the UK for the foreseeable future with few exceptions from the members to this rule. Though dry through Week 1 there seems a slow trend for blocking to the SE to recede somewhat to allow Atlantic troughs and stronger winds to make more progress down over the UK later in Week 2 with some rain for all. However, temperatures will remain distinctly mild feeling despite this.

The Jet Stream continues to run NE well to the NW of Britain steering all rain bearing fronts and depressions around the Northern flank of the European High and onward over Northern Scandinavia. There are just the merest hints of it slipping down towards the UK in a NE direction towards the end of week 2 which is reflected by the GFS trend of more rainfall for more areas at the end of the run.

 But thanks Martin

 must be very mild outlook if Jiries is about anyway hope you had a good summer and made lots at car bootys have a good one.

I wouldn't say it is going to be very mild, as I posted before the 6z had very low single digits

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

The 12z run was on the high end of the scale

I quite like a big of early winter fog. Suppresses the daytime temps fairly well and gives it a seasonal feel.

I'll have you know that the rest of that winter was VERY remarkable.

Because that's when I was born.

Today there doesn't appear to be a single model that seems prepared to pull a rabbit out of a hat and dispense with the euro high. Is the atmosphere stuck in a rut? Or is it just the models? Beyond a certain range I suppose the models can't resolve the perturbation that will break the impasse of this seemingly very stable pattern. Let's hope this is the case...

I'd agree. If it is going to be calm, grey, foggy and atmospheric let it be in the dark month of December. 

Spot on , bit of freezing fog thrown in

Which will do me, we had a really decent snowfall in January, it stuck around for ages

Well 16 of the 50 ecm ensembles show an easterly or northerly at T+ 252

If it cheers you all up any we had a remarkable cold out break in Australia this week (you might have heard the how cold it was from the comments on the radio if listening to the cricket). Snow was reported falling in the towns on the Blue Mountains, they have had their log fires lit, very seasonal 

The ECM ensemble from the 12z continues the recent theme.

The Op was amongst the mildest 20% on Day 8 and mildest 10% on Days 9 and 10.  The mean and Op show temperatures recovering to around normal for 3-4 days before easing back. Beyond Day 10 the mean is a couple of degrees higher than it was, with highs of 6-7C now.  Very few runs predict any overnight frosts and the precipitation graph shows predominantly dry conditions.

The Day 10 ensemble mean chart is rather less mild for much of England than the Op.

No post until 8.15 this morning.
Says it all really - GFS has flatlined. No ENS member below -5 at 850.
Have a nice day

A thoroughly boring set of models this morning (if it's cold you're after, or extreme mildness for that matter!), showing near average temperatures for the foreseeable future. Not mild, not cold, just constantly around 7 to 9C highs down here.

Here's the 0z ECM ensemble for Reading:

http://oi41.tinypic.com/xo48l1.jpg

Note that the op and control were cold on the 13th but some of the mildest members by the end.

For my 10,000th post on the new Forum, I was hoping to ramp about an impending Siberian freeze which looked possible a week ago

Instead, this is about as bad as it gets. I think I'd rather have record mild or wind and rain. This is just utterly boring