Good evening folks. Here is the report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday December 7th 2013.
All models continue to show few changes in the general synopses over and around the British isles. In general Low pressure will lie well to the West and NW while High pressure dominates over much of Europe. As a result the weather will remain fairly benign with in general a lot of cloud and fairly dry weather with rain and drizzle on occasions across the North and West of Britain. Equally in Southern and Eastern areas things may become rather misty and a little colder next week as winds back more to the SE for a time with some fog patches.
GFS then brings an increase of wind from the SW late next week with more changeable weather developing steadily with rain at times and some drier and brighter periods. With winds never far from a SW direction things will remain largely on the mild side of average though it may become rather breezier at times later in the period.
UKMO closes it's run with High pressure over SE Europe with a stronger SW flow developing over the UK. as a result it will stay quite mild and often cloudy and there could be some rain developing over most Northern and Western areas by this time next week.
GEM also shows an increase of wind across the UK from a SW direction next weekend. There would also be a series of troughs close to NW Britain at times giving rise to quite a bit of rain over the hills in mild weather conditions. There would be little if any rain in the SE apart from a day or two ahead of High pressure building back North from the South across Southern areas at the end of the run.
NAVGEM is mild mild mild all the way with a Southerly flow over the UK all the way and with less frontal incursion from this model then things would remain largely dry. Things in the South and SE could be a little less mild than elsewhere but it would hardly be cold considering the time of year.
ECM tonight shows the fairly mundane spell of weather persisting over the next week with just variations of wind direction and cloud amounts determining any differences in the weather felt on the surface. as a result temperatures could fluctuate down for a while in the week to come across the South before rising for all later at the expense of a marked increase of wind to gales in the NW and the increased risk of rainfall extending slowly SE across many Northern and Western areas by the start of the week after next.
The GFS Ensembles show a sustained dormant spell of weather with mild upper air conditions overall though maybe a little chilly at the surface over the South for a time. The chances of rain in the South are pretty non existent over the coming week and even thereafter no great amounts of rain are shown.
The Jet Stream shows the flow well to the NW of Britain over the coming week. there are tentative signs of it slipping further SE on it's SW to NE axis through week 2 though this is outside the reliable time frame at the moment.
In Summary there remains little change to report in the weather conditions to be expected over the coming two weeks to that shown on previous recent output. As a result we can expect largely mild weather with a SSW flow of winds and though a fair amount of dry weather is to be shared the North and West can look forward to some wet and windy weather at times too especially later. It still remains hard to see where any meaningful change in the general synoptic pattern is likely to occur other than a mild SW flow with rain making greater ingress of Low pressure into the North and West of Britain at least.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset