its worth keeping tabs on john. these 'warmings' right at the top of the strat have not had much affect on the middle strat below 10 hpa. this one does look like it may well get down to into the middle strat but the modelling is still well into the distance.  if we see consistency on this forecast from gfs op then it could well displace the strat vortex. looking at how strong the vortex currently is, it will need to be quite sustained to have much effect.  at least a straw to clutch. a warming has to begin somewhere and gfs is the only data we see beyond day 10.

Over the next week the very cold air over the USA is going to move out into the Atlantic, that should shake things up

But it doesn't stay cold all the way to the UK except in very rare occasion as you need to see New York at low as -25C surface temps before moving out into the sea which happened in 1996 when it was -26C there and by the time it reached UK with icy SW to W winds with -2C maxes here.

Mother Nature at her worst - Menopausal Meteorology!

Generally that creates a burst of cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard as the Arctic air hits the warm Atlantic.  In the years of unrelentingly mild winters that caused a chain of LP systems to work ENE across the Atlantic.

With luck the increased energy will shift the Euro high, as the ECM ensembles have been hinting for a few runs now.  Unfortunately we seem to be at risk of replacing a Euro high with a Bartlett pattern, at least based on the latest runs.

Yes, something is needed to break out of the gloomy rut we find ourselves in.

I'm watching. It's minor warming at this stage but it's been there for 4 runs now and is displacing the Strat vortex in the model. If you're bored and depressed by looking at a "scartlett" or just a straightforwad slug then watch that instead. Things could get interestig around here again.

It does hint that things may not be as settled as people think... no pun intended.

Looks like stratospheric cooling to me, not warming. The central arctic is much colder towards the end of the GFS run. I think December is a write off. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

The odd ensemble showng up with HP to the north east as we approach Xmas.More generally tthe zonal flow weakens around 21st December with a variety of HP positions emerging.

12z Runs appauling. No sign of anything remotely interesting. Downgrade, if thats even possible. On the plus side things can't exactly get worse.

It is modelled to cool over the Pole but over North East Asia a warming is modelled, which probaby does constitute an SSW event given the timeframe and degree of warming, albeit (right now, on GFS) a minor SSW as it does not break up the vortex, just displaces it.

Good evening. Here is the latest report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday December 8th 2013.

All models show a mild and moist Westerly flow backing more Southerly over the next few days with mild and cloudy conditions across the North and West with occasional rain in the NW and a fresh breeze. Over the South and East a backing wind will bring slightly colder and drier air off France and this will allow things to become a little less mild especially at night when there will be some mist and fog patches in light winds, which may as a result be slow to clear in the daytime. Late in the week stronger winds should blow the fog away and maintain milder weather for most areas with some rain edging deeper into Western and Northern Britain by the weekend.

GFS then shows slightly more changeable conditions in the extended part of it's run with troughs pushing East across the UK briefly with some rain for all before drier air returns from the West with temperatures closer to the seasonal normal by the end of the run.

UKMO tonight show no changes next weekend with a SW flow over all areas. The flow will strengthen markedly over the NW as a deep Low swings North to the West of Scotland bringing rain and strong winds for a time. In the South and East the weather will stay dry and potentially brighter with less in the way of fog by then as winds are shown to have swung more to the SW with mild air for most.

GEM shows absolutely no change in pattern throughout the entire run so that in 10 days time we are still looking at an extended period of mild SW winds with a little rain in the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas see fine weather continuing with some brightness at times and temperatures remaining on the mild side of average for all.

NAVGEM shows a rather stronger SW flow across Britain with a weak trough having carried a little rain East towards the end of the week though wholescale changes at the end of the run look a long way away still. So it would mean mostly rather cloudy and mild weather with any rain most likely towards the NW.

ECM tonight shows a trough approaching the West in a week's time with stronger but mild winds ahead of a spell of rain for all before things cool down somewhat as we enter the new week as winds switch NW briefly.

The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of mild uppers for the next week before they slowly decline to more average levels but with winds in the West any cold weather looks highly unlikely. Rainfall will be little if any in the South until late in the run with no excessive amounts anywhere.

The Jet Stream shows the flow maintained to the NW of the UK moving in a NE direction before it slips a little further South over the UK later but still flowing in a NE direction maintaining mild and strong SW winds across the UK.

In Summary tonight there remains no change in any output tonight in the continuation of generally mild and settled conditions across the South and East and rain at times in the North and West, all in association with a pattern of High pressure to the SE and Low pressure over the Atlantic and a SW flow over the UK. There are just mere hints that things might turn a little more unsettled and more breezy for some other areas for a time in Week 2 but it looks unlikely that would lead to a pattern change any time soon after.

But I don't think it does displace it. Even the pacific arctic actually becomes colder not warmer in the strat, especially at 30hpa, but 10hpa too. Increasing the gradient in the subpolar regions doesn't seem too helpful. I would say this is a pattern which encourages a small strong PV. 

Even if a SSW event does occur over the next few weeks (and it will be late december at the earliest) we would be looking at mid jan for a cold spell that can be casually linked. Its a much bigger straw than my bering high a few weeks back which in all fairness did come to fruitation abeilt probably much less than we all desired. The one consolation is, that some of these scare mongers are going to have egg in their face; but thats cold comfort to someone that went for a cold CET (I was going to plump for mild too, but then changed my mind ). 

I suppose it could conceivably remain mild until the end of Decmber which is a third gone, and also the part of the winter with the shortest days and highest SSTs 

Idk, I really can't see anything to be optimisitc about, and apparantly other people seem to think along the same lines. Any prospect of a SSW event is unlikely to occur this side of xmas, so won't really affect our weather this month. And the models are as keen as ever to keep the same pattern going. No signs of anything interesting on either side of the jet. 

EDIT:

okay here is something 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013120812/gemnh-0-234.png?12

The GEM has stuff going on in the pacific again. But really I am just going to ignore it, because the GEM has been hopeless for the last 2 weeks, even getting the upper pattern wrong for the last cold spell where the other models did well. And here we have the GEM yet again attempting to break the PV. I'm not falling for it. 

This sort of scenario:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Is popularly deemed "Bartlett", I shouldn't imagine we'll be about of this much before 2014 arrives.  Dust off the wellies though, it'll be wet.

-T/O

I guess we are allowed to say that word now? or not? 

Why wouldn't you be allowed to say that?