Good evening. Here is the latest report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday December 8th 2013.
All models show a mild and moist Westerly flow backing more Southerly over the next few days with mild and cloudy conditions across the North and West with occasional rain in the NW and a fresh breeze. Over the South and East a backing wind will bring slightly colder and drier air off France and this will allow things to become a little less mild especially at night when there will be some mist and fog patches in light winds, which may as a result be slow to clear in the daytime. Late in the week stronger winds should blow the fog away and maintain milder weather for most areas with some rain edging deeper into Western and Northern Britain by the weekend.
GFS then shows slightly more changeable conditions in the extended part of it's run with troughs pushing East across the UK briefly with some rain for all before drier air returns from the West with temperatures closer to the seasonal normal by the end of the run.
UKMO tonight show no changes next weekend with a SW flow over all areas. The flow will strengthen markedly over the NW as a deep Low swings North to the West of Scotland bringing rain and strong winds for a time. In the South and East the weather will stay dry and potentially brighter with less in the way of fog by then as winds are shown to have swung more to the SW with mild air for most.
GEM shows absolutely no change in pattern throughout the entire run so that in 10 days time we are still looking at an extended period of mild SW winds with a little rain in the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas see fine weather continuing with some brightness at times and temperatures remaining on the mild side of average for all.
NAVGEM shows a rather stronger SW flow across Britain with a weak trough having carried a little rain East towards the end of the week though wholescale changes at the end of the run look a long way away still. So it would mean mostly rather cloudy and mild weather with any rain most likely towards the NW.
ECM tonight shows a trough approaching the West in a week's time with stronger but mild winds ahead of a spell of rain for all before things cool down somewhat as we enter the new week as winds switch NW briefly.
The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of mild uppers for the next week before they slowly decline to more average levels but with winds in the West any cold weather looks highly unlikely. Rainfall will be little if any in the South until late in the run with no excessive amounts anywhere.
The Jet Stream shows the flow maintained to the NW of the UK moving in a NE direction before it slips a little further South over the UK later but still flowing in a NE direction maintaining mild and strong SW winds across the UK.
In Summary tonight there remains no change in any output tonight in the continuation of generally mild and settled conditions across the South and East and rain at times in the North and West, all in association with a pattern of High pressure to the SE and Low pressure over the Atlantic and a SW flow over the UK. There are just mere hints that things might turn a little more unsettled and more breezy for some other areas for a time in Week 2 but it looks unlikely that would lead to a pattern change any time soon after.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset