interestingly - this was weatheronlines long range forecast for December and January

*December*
There are strong indications from various forecast models that December is going to a month dominated by westerly winds.
This means that conditions are likely to be rather mild overall, although this does not preclude the possibility of cooler weather making an appearance from time to time, especially later in the month.
It is likely to be a wetter than normal December, especially in Ireland, northern England and Scotland, with conditions to the far south being drier at times.
Snow events may effect Scotland on a few days, mostly confined to high ground behind clearing cold fronts.

*January*
Agreement between long range forecast models at the present time that January turns into a significantly colder month.
Lower pressure is expected over the south of the country with a block of high pressure building to the north. Should this pattern become established winds will be turning to the east or northeast for many bringing chilly conditions and periods of rain, sleet and snow.
Drier generally in northern and western Scotland as well as western Ireland although feeling cold.


It was issued back in October... so far, and by the looks of the models - its looking fairly spot on.

---

Yes Neil, looking at the longer range output I feel this mildness could be here to stay- quite possibly until the Christmas period at least. Its a very hard pattern to break as we all know, though I see some hints from GFS of perhaps a little more in the way of cooler zonality today (though no sign of high latitude blocking that we have become used to over the last few winters). The December CET is well worth keeping an eye on- with the high daytime temperatures and overnight cloud cover we could be looking at a notable event. It is however, only just into the second week of the month and nothing is cast in stone yet.

mild all the out to the new year!!  that's great news

---

Freaks

 

 

---

^^^^^

 

Wish I could predict the weather for the uk for the next 3-4 weeks, Can I borrow someomes crystal ball 

That run has a rise in pressure over Greenland from 960hPa to 1065hPa in 48 hours!

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/584/gens-8-1-204_oit3.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7465/gens-8-1-252_xge9.png

A Christmas miracle!

"http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

A nice build of pressure over Scandi....... shame about the high over Euorpe thou!"


Agreed: all Eyes to the med for a pressure drop. I think the Sharp almost hurricane storms Corsica got earlier in the autumn destroyed mother natures appetite for that.

---

The pattern of rolling Euro highs isn't changing anytime soon.
If it's a change you're after, come back just before Christmas.

---

All models: "Probability of Hope: 0%"

 

---

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131209/12/360/h850t850eu.png 

on the face of it another terrible chart...BUT - there is pressure falling over the med, and LPs darting south towards the Med, with Pressure maintaining to the North East.

More of this please.

---

GFS 12h seeems to have flipped to more zonal.Now its SW zonal all the way from 120h to Xmas.No doubt more dramatic changes will occur before Xmas is nigh.Still good news for those who didn't like the Euro block!

Although you've cherry picked a chart at the very far end of FI, it does illustrate the developing trend of a revision to a more mobile westerly regime and ultimately perhaps more NWly with a polar maritime influence.
As such the MetO extended seems plausible with suggesting a cool down and potential wintry showers at times later in the period in the North.
The height build to the NE is at this stage is probably just a ruse to inject a bit of Christmas spirit, but one that might come to something further down the line.

---

Analysis time for GFS12z run Dec9th 2013.

The next 3 days largely High Pressure is in rule ove West and NW Europe, while the PV Lows Spread East and ENE from WSW at N and NE Od N Atlantic, they then spread over Norwegian Sea near and over NW and NE Norway and cross Finland later, after they affect areas West and SW- by Thurdsay and Friday they affect there with Wet and Rainy then Wintry Weather.

As we move on to Thursday and Friday we are going to turn unsettled with two areas of low pressure shown by GFS, linked with Advancing Long Wave NW Atlantic cross through N then across NE Atlantic affect UK with the frontal sides of it- Short waves.

By next Saturday it will be Settled and turn breezy and stay mild, after cooling off on Friday.

Then Sunday A big NE Mid N Atlantic PV Low pressure affects the UK mild to SE colder later in North and over the West with the Heavy rain and Severe Gales lashing Western and Northern Central as well parts, the Cold Front clears East the low heads ENE through WSW Norwegian Sea NE Atlantic this happens as more spells of heave rain and heavy showers cross West and northern UK on Monday Tuesday with Seasonal Average temperatures ove much of the UK, the best Of drier weather in the South and SE on those days.

By later Wednesday and Through Thursday some Westerly and NW winds, with Deepened N Atlantic low pressure cross the UK it will be settled early on Wednesday in the East and the South, but the Atlantic rain and mild wave ahead if it will move across - Clearing by Thursday in Week 2 this is week after next weekend.

Further Outlook from GFS 12z has the following Weekend see waves of Waves of Large North and west NW to NE Atlantic and UK affected by PV from this area bringing bands do heavy rain, Gales to Severe Gales at times in UK, and some colder winds from the West direction with sunny spells and heavy showers with chance of hail and thunder in places too- and hills plus mountains in uk could see snow from them and from the rain as well.

---

ECM puts the jet stream suprisingly far south on this run, while heights rise in E eurasia. I recon if these two events can become systemic then I will be more interested. Best run for a while anyway. 

---

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120912/ECH0-240.GIF?09-0

Something a bit more interesting at least

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120912/ECH1-240.GIF?09-0

 

---

The Hidden Gems that are found when One takes a Gander at 12z ECMWF run and the 12z UKMO run it Supports a Big change From Next Weekend Sat/ Sunday from T120 and T144hrs , and progging it to 240 hours- both Models they show a very Stormy Period this December part 2 in their number crunching's.

By that it will be Mild and Very Wet at times, and lesser periods of Cold NW Flow but that could easily turn a change to Cold NW as well being part of the Sequence of UK through N Atlantic Deep Polar Vortex Low Linked up in a Series- a Strong and Long period of Bad Weather is being Modelled.

---

I would say taken in isolation, this chart is almost mouthwatering. But its the first of anything even remotely interesting. The jet stream goes well to the south on this ECM run plunging the UK into cold zonality, meanwhile we have height rises in E europe AND E russia. This will cause troughs to push down between and undeneath the highs promoting amplification of a scandanavian block, indeed this is already hapepning by 240. 

I hope this isn't just a one off, because this is a game changer of a chart. 

---

Indeed, those were what Jiries was talking about yesterday - that bitter air across the US & Canada making it's way across the Atlantic. 

---

A closer view - would be great if those -8 uppers made it, their halfway here! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120912/ECM0-240.GIF?09-0

 

 

---

Good evening everyone. Here is the report of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday Deceember 9th 2013.

All models continue the theme of dry and fine weather for the remainder of this week as High pressure is maintained to the SE and Low over the Atlantic. However, NW Britain will be the exception to this with cloudy skies from troughs just to the West with outbreaks of rain at times along with strong winds. It will be mild here. Further South and East it will be brighter with some pleasant sunshine in between cloudier spells and by night clearer skies could give rise to patchy frost and fog in places, slow to clear by day. By the weekend things may begin to turn somewhat more unsettled for rather more of the UK with the East alone staying dry. However, it's here where the models diverge a little in how this transpires.

GFS then sets up a very mobile pattern for the second half of the run with rain at times for all. With winds permanently from a positions between South and NW the temperatures will remain quite respectable for December with little chance of significant frost, fog, sleet or snow.

UKMO closes it's run for next Sunday with a very deep Low near Iceland with a stronger and strengthening SW flow with most areas having become more changeable with some rain at times, especially in the North and West. Temperatures would remain near to or a little above average for most.

GEM tonight brings a change too next weekend with some rain ahead of a decline into potentially quite stormy conditions as intense depressions cross quickly NE over or just to the NW with very wet and windy conditions developing fr all, especially but not exclusively to the North and West. Temperatures would remain close to average but it would feel chilly in the wind and rain next week.

NAVGEM also shows a period of more unsettled weather at least for a time with some rain likely for all as winds freshen markedly from the West in response to low pressure crossing East to the north of Scotland. Temperatures look like being close to average overall.

ECM tonight shows a much more Wintry looking set of charts for next week as High pressure influence to the SE is lost in preference to deep Low pressure covering the North Atlantic. Very unstable WSW winds would bring spells of rain and showers, some heavy later with thunder and hail as somewhat colder conditions take hold with temperatures close to average at best. Winds would be starong at times too with gales in the North and West.

The GFS Ensembles show a steady decline towards more average December levels from later this week with rain developing at times in all areas with time though amounts in the South will be largely suppressed.

The Jet Stream tonight's most notable attribute is the strength of it's flow as it powers NE to the NW of Britain through this week. It then shows a continued trend to bring the axis further SE to run NE over the UK next week hence the incursion of more mobile Atlantic weather type with rain and showers and storm systems to the NW of the UK.

In Summary tonight there is definitive trend that things may begin to change from the weekend. While we are unlikely to move towards anything wintry in the way of snow and ice we will probably get out of the rut of dry and mild weather as many of us will see this week into something more interesting with wind and rain becoming much more widespread through next week along with some strong West or SW winds at times. Some models do show the effects to the South as still quite limited while others suggest the South will also share in some heavy rain and gales at times. It will be interesting to see how this growing trend develops or subsides again over the coming model runs.

---

Rain would be interesting - apart from 0.5mm whilst I was away end of Nov, not had any measureable rainfall here since 21st Nov - nearly 3 weeks ....

I think that's a drought?

---

Be nice to see somrhing similar in the morning , I finish for Xmas on Friday so it would be good for the weather to pick up and give something a little seasonal

---

Not entirely relevant, but does anyone remember the year and month where the mother of all cold spells was forecast 48 hours out with -15 uppers across the country, which diminished to nothing? 

---

 

Which one?

---

Indeed. Could be one of many.

---