Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday December 15th 2013.
All models show a changeable and sometimes wet and very windy spell of weather throughout the coming week. Day to day the weather will vary between wet, windy and mild days with tonight, Wednesday and Friday favoured for this weather type while later tomorrow, Tuesday and again on Thursday sees some colder conditions with dry weather for many on Tuesday while Thursday sees very showery weather with some colder weather in tow too with some temporary wintry showers on Northern hills.
GFS shows an unsettled weekend to come with rain and showers in brisk and locally very strong West or SW winds with showers, wintry on Northern hills. A change is shown tonight though as High pressure builds north from France over the Christmas period and allows very mild and drier weather to become established for a time across the South with less rain for the North too before changeable Atlantic type conditions return to all late in the run with temperatures holding up very well with most rain in the North and West.
UKMO closes it's run tonight with next weekend looking like being a wet and windy one as well as becoming very mild once more as a broad and strong SW flow is well set across the UK with troughs rushing through at times.
GEM again tonight shows a very unstable Christmas period with strong winds and rain at times for all and again tonight the model indicates somewhat lower temperatures with time allowing some snowfall in the squally showers occurring over the Christmas period.
NAVGEM also shows wet and very windy conditions next weekend and to end it's run with temperatures well up in association with the near gale or more WSW wind.
ECM tonight also shows a trend towards High pressure building back briefly from the South in the few days up to Christmas before Christmas itself looks like a mild and wet one with rain followed by showers on a gale West or SW wind.
The GFS Ensembles are edging towards another milder phase now as we approach and carry through the Christmas period although the operational version I described above was a bit of an outlier at this point. None the less there is still little sign from any member of anything remotely in the way of snow and ice in a big way.
The Jet Stream shows the flow across the UK through all of this week before it has introduced a short shift North again as we move towards and over Christmas before returning South on a West to East axis late in the run.
In Summary the indications are for the weather to stay relatively mild for the foreseeable future with plenty of rain at times with strong to gale force winds too on occasion. If anything tonight the prospects for a deeply unsettled and colder Christmas has receded somewhat tonight as High pressure builds back North towards Southern Britain from France in the days before Christmas before things turn mild, wet and windy again over the period itself. With pressure remaining High over Southern Europe winds will remain from the West for some considerable time aided by a powerful Jet stream. Day to Day differences in daily detail will change regularly over the coming days but there is little change expected in the overall pattern.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset