theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
22 December 2013 19:40:18

I'm cautiously optimistic with the likes of this in FI.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

Allowing for the usual delays, I think by mid January we could see a decent wintry spell. With the very cold air over N America and the very deep lows in the Atlantic it just feels like an extremely cold air mass could come our way before winter is out.

But maybe that's because I've just had a couple of glasses of the old vino collapso...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I thought cold air in N america (at least the East) is the last place you want it, if you want cold spells? It seems to me, that we are entering a period of endless cyclogenesis. The CFS output is pretty disturbing, apart from a very brief period in mid january the whole winter is dominated by the coldest air in the whole of the NH sitting over E canada (and in the period in mid january there is still below avg uppers in E canada). This process is a nightmare of positive feedbacks, cold air over E canada stagnates at the surface and cools down the upper atmosphere promoting even colder uppers than we already have, meanwhile cyclogenesis caused by these cold uppers prevents any prospect of a subtropical flow to that region. The end result being E USA and E canada end up in endless winter, while we get endless autumn. The CFS solution of keeping this thing goind for the entire dam winter could have records broken on both sides of the atlantic, but for us it wont be cold and snow. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Polar Low
22 December 2013 19:57:23

its the next one that intrest me Gt taken from a member set admited


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0


 



What's fustrating is that by t90, pressure begins to fall over the Med & central Europe


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-90.png?12?12


This continues for another 48 hours, and one would hope the storm that hits us on Friday would follow the ESE trajectory it had been following, and on into Europe,


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-108.png?12


Yet it halts over the UK, fills a bit, then scoots NE'wards. Meanwhile, pressure rises over central Europe/the Med, slamming the door on the possibility of the blocking that's building way to our north being able to influence us.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-144.png?12?12


 


I hate our climate. It seems that almost always the 'weather gods' find a way to scupper a potential decent set-up


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The low pressure in the Med is caused by cyclogenesis induced by the plunge of cold air south from tomorrow's storm. It isn't indicative of any change in the main pattern, unfortunately - just gets cut off and isolated as the jet surges back north again.

The next LP is actually coming east not south-east - and the track in this se-up often spins them NE and then north as they start to fill.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Rob K
22 December 2013 20:08:14

I'm cautiously optimistic with the likes of this in FI.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

Allowing for the usual delays, I think by mid January we could see a decent wintry spell. With the very cold air over N America and the very deep lows in the Atlantic it just feels like an extremely cold air mass could come our way before winter is out.

But maybe that's because I've just had a couple of glasses of the old vino collapso...

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I thought cold air in N america (at least the East) is the last place you want it, if you want cold spells? It seems to me, that we are entering a period of endless cyclogenesis. The CFS output is pretty disturbing, apart from a very brief period in mid january the whole winter is dominated by the coldest air in the whole of the NH sitting over E canada (and in the period in mid january there is still below avg uppers in E canada). This process is a nightmare of positive feedbacks, cold air over E canada stagnates at the surface and cools down the upper atmosphere promoting even colder uppers than we already have, meanwhile cyclogenesis caused by these cold uppers prevents any prospect of a subtropical flow to that region. The end result being E USA and E canada end up in endless winter, while we get endless autumn. The CFS solution of keeping this thing goind for the entire dam winter could have records broken on both sides of the atlantic, but for us it wont be cold and snow. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Well it's often said that when the US gets cold weather we get it a few weeks later. Obviously it is not nearly as simple as that, but it does often seem a deep low anchored off the eastern seaboard eventually kick starts WAA up to Greenland and an eventual cold spell here.

The thing is you need a pressure build over NW Europe to hold up the lows coming out of Canada. IMO we are starting to see the beginnings of that in the output for the first week of Jan. Time will tell.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
22 December 2013 20:19:41


The interesting thing is, that over the longer term the jet stream trends further and further south. With that cold pool in E canada we won't get blocking, however if the jet gets far enough south, things could actually turn pretty cold and the winds even backing to the NE and our weather may even turn slightly icelandic. But cold zonality is really the best on offer. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


We won't get a block sitting over the UK, I agree. But blocking to our north and a raging Jet to the south of the UK driving successive lows into the Channel/France latitude can create some great set-ups for the UK


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chiltern Blizzard
22 December 2013 20:20:58

I'm cautiously optimistic with the likes of this in FI.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

Allowing for the usual delays, I think by mid January we could see a decent wintry spell. With the very cold air over N America and the very deep lows in the Atlantic it just feels like an extremely cold air mass could come our way before winter is out.

But maybe that's because I've just had a couple of glasses of the old vino collapso...

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I thought cold air in N america (at least the East) is the last place you want it, if you want cold spells? It seems to me, that we are entering a period of endless cyclogenesis. The CFS output is pretty disturbing, apart from a very brief period in mid january the whole winter is dominated by the coldest air in the whole of the NH sitting over E canada (and in the period in mid january there is still below avg uppers in E canada). This process is a nightmare of positive feedbacks, cold air over E canada stagnates at the surface and cools down the upper atmosphere promoting even colder uppers than we already have, meanwhile cyclogenesis caused by these cold uppers prevents any prospect of a subtropical flow to that region. The end result being E USA and E canada end up in endless winter, while we get endless autumn. The CFS solution of keeping this thing goind for the entire dam winter could have records broken on both sides of the atlantic, but for us it wont be cold and snow. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



If you had been buzzing with excitement at sight of a tasty cold spell modelled many weeks away on cfs, you'd be advised to stay grounded and reminded that these charts are light years beyond the reliable or even semi-reliable range, and moreoever these charts not infrequently flip utterly within a single run.... The same logic applies when being'disturbed' by an endless zonal train.

The fact it's currently very cold in E Canada doesn't mean it will stay that way, whatever cfs model may currently suggest, and more than any other weather pattern is 'locked in'.


Andrew
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
The Beast from the East
22 December 2013 20:31:38
All the ingredients are in place for a very interesting January. But will the souffle rise?!

I suppose the reason why we are so obsessed with snow is because it is so rare in this country due to our location. When it happens, it is special
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
22 December 2013 20:48:14


I'm cautiously optimistic with the likes of this in FI.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

Allowing for the usual delays, I think by mid January we could see a decent wintry spell. With the very cold air over N America and the very deep lows in the Atlantic it just feels like an extremely cold air mass could come our way before winter is out.

But maybe that's because I've just had a couple of glasses of the old vino collapso...

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


I thought cold air in N america (at least the East) is the last place you want it, if you want cold spells? It seems to me, that we are entering a period of endless cyclogenesis. The CFS output is pretty disturbing, apart from a very brief period in mid january the whole winter is dominated by the coldest air in the whole of the NH sitting over E canada (and in the period in mid january there is still below avg uppers in E canada). This process is a nightmare of positive feedbacks, cold air over E canada stagnates at the surface and cools down the upper atmosphere promoting even colder uppers than we already have, meanwhile cyclogenesis caused by these cold uppers prevents any prospect of a subtropical flow to that region. The end result being E USA and E canada end up in endless winter, while we get endless autumn. The CFS solution of keeping this thing goind for the entire dam winter could have records broken on both sides of the atlantic, but for us it wont be cold and snow. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



If you had been buzzing with excitement at sight of a tasty cold spell modelled many weeks away on cfs, you'd be advised to stay grounded and reminded that these charts are light years beyond the reliable or even semi-reliable range, and moreoever these charts not infrequently flip utterly within a single run.... The same logic applies when being'disturbed' by an endless zonal train.

The fact it's currently very cold in E Canada doesn't mean it will stay that way, whatever cfs model may currently suggest, and more than any other weather pattern is 'locked in'.


Andrew

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I'm looking more for trends rather than specific synoptics to be clear. I don't think I have ever got excited about tasty cold spells in isolation. Imo the CFS did a pretty dam good job this December predicting HP close to the Uk in the first half and more unsettled in the 2nd half, and if I had listened to it my CET wouldn't be so hoplessly wrong. Of course the CFS is not to be relied upon, but I don't think the fact that currently it is showing quite unsettled conditions should be dismissed so quickly.  

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
22 December 2013 20:49:26


What's fustrating is that by t90, pressure begins to fall over the Med & central Europe


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-90.png?12?12


This continues for another 48 hours, and one would hope the storm that hits us on Friday would follow the ESE trajectory it had been following, and on into Europe,


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-108.png?12


Yet it halts over the UK, fills a bit, then scoots NE'wards. Meanwhile, pressure rises over central Europe/the Med, slamming the door on the possibility of the blocking that's building way to our north being able to influence us.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-144.png?12?12


 


I hate our climate. It seems that almost always the 'weather gods' find a way to scupper a potential decent set-up


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The low pressure in the Med is caused by cyclogenesis induced by the plunge of cold air south from tomorrow's storm. It isn't indicative of any change in the main pattern, unfortunately - just gets cut off and isolated as the jet surges back north again.

The next LP is actually coming east not south-east - and the track in this se-up often spins them NE and then north as they start to fill.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Thank you


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
22 December 2013 20:50:10



The interesting thing is, that over the longer term the jet stream trends further and further south. With that cold pool in E canada we won't get blocking, however if the jet gets far enough south, things could actually turn pretty cold and the winds even backing to the NE and our weather may even turn slightly icelandic. But cold zonality is really the best on offer. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


We won't get a block sitting over the UK, I agree. But blocking to our north and a raging Jet to the south of the UK driving successive lows into the Channel/France latitude can create some great set-ups for the UK


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


True, but doesn't some cold air have to be in place first? There isn't really that much cold to our immediate north at the moment, indeed the coldest air is being imported from the SW currently. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
22 December 2013 21:03:05

All the ingredients are in place for a very interesting January. But will the souffle rise?!

I suppose the reason why we are so obsessed with snow is because it is so rare in this country due to our location. When it happens, it is special

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 




All the ingredients might be there but the met office are not buying the recipe and are now virtually writing off the whole of Jan. I'm normally quite optimistic but it's slim pickings at the moment. Maybe we will get lucky with a SSW again. Lets hope so otherwise it will be a very boring winter.




Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
22 December 2013 21:07:09

All the ingredients are in place for a very interesting January. But will the souffle rise?!

I suppose the reason why we are so obsessed with snow is because it is so rare in this country due to our location. When it happens, it is special

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




All the ingredients might be there but the met office are not buying the recipe and are now virtually writing off the whole of Jan. I'm normally quite optimistic but it's slim pickings at the moment. Maybe we will get lucky with a SSW again. Lets hope so otherwise it will be a very boring winter.




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


We'll get a very good idea of things by the second week of January.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


picturesareme
22 December 2013 21:11:07

All the ingredients are in place for a very interesting January. But will the souffle rise?!

I suppose the reason why we are so obsessed with snow is because it is so rare in this country due to our location. When it happens, it is special

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




All the ingredients might be there but the met office are not buying the recipe and are now virtually writing off the whole of Jan. I'm normally quite optimistic but it's slim pickings at the moment. Maybe we will get lucky with a SSW again. Lets hope so otherwise it will be a very boring winter.




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Metoffice ??? They've not said anything.

Though they do mentioning drier with increased risk if frost.

The 16-30 day hasn't been updated...not for a week lol, just the date.
Quantum
22 December 2013 21:11:52


All the ingredients are in place for a very interesting January. But will the souffle rise?!

I suppose the reason why we are so obsessed with snow is because it is so rare in this country due to our location. When it happens, it is special

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 




All the ingredients might be there but the met office are not buying the recipe and are now virtually writing off the whole of Jan. I'm normally quite optimistic but it's slim pickings at the moment. Maybe we will get lucky with a SSW again. Lets hope so otherwise it will be a very boring winter.




Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


We'll get a very good idea of things by the second week of January.


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Thats basically half the winter gone 


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Hungry Tiger
22 December 2013 21:15:20

Lets have another look.


There is an attempt at rising pressure to the north.


But the Azores high still remains strong.


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 December 2013 21:18:16

An interesting westward march of (very) cold air from Siberia in the second period - a thrust like that usually takes a lot of stopping


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
David M Porter
22 December 2013 21:33:42



All the ingredients are in place for a very interesting January. But will the souffle rise?!

I suppose the reason why we are so obsessed with snow is because it is so rare in this country due to our location. When it happens, it is special

Originally Posted by: Quantum 




All the ingredients might be there but the met office are not buying the recipe and are now virtually writing off the whole of Jan. I'm normally quite optimistic but it's slim pickings at the moment. Maybe we will get lucky with a SSW again. Lets hope so otherwise it will be a very boring winter.




Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


We'll get a very good idea of things by the second week of January.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Thats basically half the winter gone 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


True, but it was only really from the same point last winter that the colder weather began to take hold. Xmas & New Year last year were both unsettled and mild and the model runs on the face of it didn't look great at that time, but IIRC there were subtle hints now and again in FI of some changes taking place as we went further into January 2013.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Solar Cycles
22 December 2013 21:34:41

All the ingredients are in place for a very interesting January. But will the souffle rise?!

I suppose the reason why we are so obsessed with snow is because it is so rare in this country due to our location. When it happens, it is special

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




All the ingredients might be there but the met office are not buying the recipe and are now virtually writing off the whole of Jan. I'm normally quite optimistic but it's slim pickings at the moment. Maybe we will get lucky with a SSW again. Lets hope so otherwise it will be a very boring winter.




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Lol, but the MetO rely on the ECM32 for guidance and we all know just how woeful that is past 10 days. If by the end of tomorrow we continue too see a trend for colder conditions then expect the MetO to start slowly adding this in their daily updates.

Gooner
22 December 2013 21:56:26


I'm cautiously optimistic with the likes of this in FI.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

Allowing for the usual delays, I think by mid January we could see a decent wintry spell. With the very cold air over N America and the very deep lows in the Atlantic it just feels like an extremely cold air mass could come our way before winter is out.

But maybe that's because I've just had a couple of glasses of the old vino collapso...

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I thought cold air in N america (at least the East) is the last place you want it, if you want cold spells? It seems to me, that we are entering a period of endless cyclogenesis. The CFS output is pretty disturbing, apart from a very brief period in mid january the whole winter is dominated by the coldest air in the whole of the NH sitting over E canada (and in the period in mid january there is still below avg uppers in E canada). This process is a nightmare of positive feedbacks, cold air over E canada stagnates at the surface and cools down the upper atmosphere promoting even colder uppers than we already have, meanwhile cyclogenesis caused by these cold uppers prevents any prospect of a subtropical flow to that region. The end result being E USA and E canada end up in endless winter, while we get endless autumn. The CFS solution of keeping this thing goind for the entire dam winter could have records broken on both sides of the atlantic, but for us it wont be cold and snow. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


What record would be broken over here? at present it wouldn't be for warmth ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
22 December 2013 22:10:49




All the ingredients are in place for a very interesting January. But will the souffle rise?!

I suppose the reason why we are so obsessed with snow is because it is so rare in this country due to our location. When it happens, it is special

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 




All the ingredients might be there but the met office are not buying the recipe and are now virtually writing off the whole of Jan. I'm normally quite optimistic but it's slim pickings at the moment. Maybe we will get lucky with a SSW again. Lets hope so otherwise it will be a very boring winter.




Originally Posted by: Quantum 


We'll get a very good idea of things by the second week of January.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Thats basically half the winter gone 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


True, but it was only really from the same point last winter that the colder weather began to take hold. Xmas & New Year last year were both unsettled and mild and the model runs on the face of it didn't look great at that time, but IIRC there were subtle hints now and again in FI of some changes taking place as we went further into January 2013.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


It wasn't until the 3rd week of January 2013 that I saw snow and it sat around for weeks

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
22 December 2013 22:12:18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122218/gfsnh-0-114.png?18


oh dear Ireland in particular is in a bit of trouble later in the week

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Tom Oxon
22 December 2013 22:14:34
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif 

Pretty zonal in my opinion. albeit with some angular momnentum, towards the end of the run at T240 there are some height rises showing in the Arctic, I think we could see a transition to -AO and a filter down to our latitude end Jan/early Feb so I would say I expect a colder second half to the winter.

I do think from an enthusiast perspective these storms are providing a lot of interest nonetheless.

- T/O
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Medlock Vale Weather
22 December 2013 22:19:26

The chance of snow here on Tuesday, also for Wales, Ireland and Scotland


 http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/39-779UK.GIF?22-18


 http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/42-779UK.GIF?22-18

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Rob K
22 December 2013 22:53:13

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Pretty zonal in my opinion. albeit with some angular momnentum, towards the end of the run at T240 there are some height rises showing in the Arctic, I think we could see a transition to -AO and a filter down to our latitude end Jan/early Feb so I would say I expect a colder second half to the winter.

I do think from an enthusiast perspective these storms are providing a lot of interest nonetheless.

- T/O

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 



Yes quite right. People seem so obsessed with snow on here which let's face it isn't all that exciting after the initial fun (unless you are somewhere you can ski!) and seem to be ignoring lots of other noteworthy weather right here and now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
22 December 2013 23:09:37

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Pretty zonal in my opinion. albeit with some angular momnentum, towards the end of the run at T240 there are some height rises showing in the Arctic, I think we could see a transition to -AO and a filter down to our latitude end Jan/early Feb so I would say I expect a colder second half to the winter.

I do think from an enthusiast perspective these storms are providing a lot of interest nonetheless.

- T/O

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Yes quite right. People seem so obsessed with snow on here which let's face it isn't all that exciting after the initial fun (unless you are somewhere you can ski!) and seem to be ignoring lots of other noteworthy weather right here and now.

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 


I think the reason is, snow has the ability to create a sort of benevolant chaos, that can last for a while, bring people together, and change the environment so much. Things like rain and wind are not only mostly transient; but also any chaos that they do bring is almost never benevolant, and instead miserable and disruptive (of course snow can be this type of 'chaos' too). I think places that are used to snow don't get this chaos and see the landscape change as undramatic as the shedding of decidious trees in the autumn. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ballogie
22 December 2013 23:22:07


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122218/gfsnh-0-114.png?18


oh dear Ireland in particular is in a bit of trouble later in the week


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


where can I see this in greater detail?  Even with a magnifying glass, I can't work it out


 

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