Thank you for the output Martin..

Know what to expect for most of the month now...

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Ever the optimist I too see the next chance of cold, and it is no more than a chance at the moment, in 10 days time as per the ECM 00z. Of course it is totally reliant on that slight break in the Atlantic Train as without it the barrage of westerlies will just roll on and on! The other positive is the lowering of 850s on the GEFS in the same time period and whilst I have yet to look at the individual runs, there appear to be 4 or 5 at the T240 period that attempt some sort of easterly. Small crumbs of comfort perhaps, but crumbs nonetheless!

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It's always worth keeping an eye on. At the moment the forecasts show the vortex taking a hammering in just over a week's time and the pummelling continues through the next week. If nothing else, it ought to ease the zonal train just a notch as it works its way downwards!

 

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Hmm, 6 and 17 are the only GEFS runs on the 00z to form an easterly with 1,9 and 20 as also rans!

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Reposted from NW - this explains the Met Office's text forecasts mention cold. As I suspected a couple of days ago, it's not related to the GLOSEA stratosphere model:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78787-model-output-discussion-17th-dec2013-12z-onwards/page-96#entry2878659 

Yesterday, 23:18

bluearmy, on 29 Dec 2013 - 23:00, said:

Any word on the 30 day 'cold possibility' Ian? Is it glosea 4 or potential cold clusters at day 15?


The latter I believe. Nothing to scare the horses re cold (in strictest sense) until at least mid-Jan, reckon UKMO, but frankly the fixation for now is understandably on rainfall & (to some degree) wind issues for the forseeable. High confidence on the unsettled westerly regime through early to (at least) mid-Jan, but with Pm or rPm phases causing the cooling trend seen in EC ENS... snow/heavy snow for Scotland at times but Exeter stress range of synoptic outcomes into further reaches of trend period, thus confidence declining later into Jan. So, all in keeping with current output available on public websites.

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The latter I believe. Nothing to scare the horses re cold (in strictest sense) until at least mid-Jan, reckon UKMO, but frankly the fixation for now is understandably on rainfall & (to some degree) wind issues for the forseeable. High confidence on the unsettled westerly regime through early to (at least) mid-Jan, but with Pm or rPm phases causing the cooling trend seen in EC ENS... snow/heavy snow for Scotland at times but Exeter stress range of synoptic outcomes into further reaches of trend period, thus confidence declining later into Jan. So, all in keeping with current output available on public websites.

 yes in the short to medium term the weather is stuck in a mobile atlantic flow. after around the 11th of jan there are signs of a marked dip in temps and an easterly or north easterly flow setting in . not really cold, but a lot colder than recently . long way off , but it is a feasible resolution.

Q's fvourite model NAVGEM really gets the warming going

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013123000/navgemnh-7-180.png?30-06

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Very unsettled and often wet with a risk of flooding continues.

Staying that way well into FI.

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glad you found that darren - i was about to reference it.

much uncertainty around day 8-12 re the mid atlantic ridging. until we get a handle on that, not much point in making predictions as the subsequent surface conditions for us vary hugely.  also, can we not bother to look at navgem's strat charts - the model clearly has no definition or resolution that high up. 

Why do you say that ?

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png 

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123006/gfsnh-0-174.png?6

Blimey another one to batter the North

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That's been showing up for a few days now.

Looks seriously rough and also looks like this might verify.

 

 

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That low stays more or less stationary for 72 hours and gradually fills in situ.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2921.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png 

Serious rainfall!

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Next Monday's storm has been modelled closer to the UK compared to the 0z
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png 

in amidst all the storminess, the vortex look under massive pressure in low res, and by +264 looks like its heading for a split (on the 06z).

edit: AND heyho, wouldn't you know it, we have a split in the stratospheric vortex!

*Sigh*. Has GFS been on the red bull again? In the last run, it didn't look that bad off to the west of the UK:

The 0Z run: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=uv10&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201312300000%26HH%3D168

And now in the latest run, a horror show: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=uv10&HH=168&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&WMO=

Is it trying to give us weather watchers bloody heart attacks?! Here we go again with hoping for downgrades in the next few runs - or I could just turn off the internet and get on with my life.
  I mis the old days when I used to be blissfully unaware of it and took each day as they came along.

However, this may soothe our frayed nerves, even though at 324 hrs it is light years away in forecasting terms: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=324&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Aaaaah, that's better. And relax.

Oh no, I'm becoming a model output monster.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3242.png 

Looks like the residual chunk of PV over Canada/Greenland could keep the UK on the mild side though.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37217.png

chilly enough though Rob

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cos its clearly got no idea what its doing marcus.

I've already posted a paper on the January '63 SSW which has some similarities to what is being modelled. A squint at the upper air analogues show '79 and 63 as being upstream matches; both events saw a split vortex following elongation from wave 2 activity.

For anyone interested in looking at past warmings there are animations available here.

http://p-martineau.com/ssw-animations/ 

thought you had some stats

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Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

Rain, rain and more rain...

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Also has a look at the latest stratospheric forecast from the GFS model.

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I remember Tom Pressuti, only four? years ago, making weather predictions based on SSW events and often being the focus for   ridicule by some. He wouldn't be ridiculed now.

Four years is a long time in climate science progress - I wonder how much more there is to know, reduce to algorithms, include in the weather models for these to become reliable and in the GCM's for these to be useful?

 

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