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Saint Snow
20 January 2014 09:28:48


The models are doing a very good impression of a girlfriend of mine from about 20 years ago... always teasing, but never delivering the goods.


Usual rules.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


 


The GFS 0z has just whispered in your ear, "my mum & dad are out this Saturday night... do you want to come over?"


Much promise, but you know between now and then something's bound to go wrong


 



Edit - the favourite thing to go wrong is for her fat, ugly friend to turn up and plonk herself on the sofa between you and refuse to budge. Her name is, obviously, Azores High.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
yorkshirelad89
20 January 2014 10:08:44

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html


Some noteworthy cold appearing over the continent for the first time this winter especially over Scandanavia, the block to our east may become more stubborn and stronger then is currently shown....


http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html


Also worth noting is another vigourous cold wave across Eastern USA, making its way down to Florida too unlike previous cold spells there, this could help weaken the gradient off the Eastern Seaboard finally.


So while there is no negative NAO at the moment the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere developing could help develop more favourable synoptics further down the line.

Hull
Scandy 1050 MB
20 January 2014 10:18:19


http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html


Some noteworthy cold appearing over the continent for the first time this winter especially over Scandanavia, the block to our east may become more stubborn and stronger then is currently shown....


http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html


Also worth noting is another vigourous cold wave across Eastern USA, making its way down to Florida too unlike previous cold spells there, this could help weaken the gradient off the Eastern Seaboard finally.


So while there is no negative NAO at the moment the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere developing could help develop more favourable synoptics further down the line.


Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 


But the AO forecast to go strongly positive - can't be good?


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml


 


 

Rob K
20 January 2014 10:25:54
The 06z GFS brings cold air within sniffing distance as a little low slips through to the SE

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
SEMerc
20 January 2014 10:26:47

Good ECM ensemble mean. Day 8 very nearly has a widespread snow event. Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.html


So widespread rain it is then.

yorkshirelad89
20 January 2014 10:28:49



http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html


Some noteworthy cold appearing over the continent for the first time this winter especially over Scandanavia, the block to our east may become more stubborn and stronger then is currently shown....


http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html


Also worth noting is another vigourous cold wave across Eastern USA, making its way down to Florida too unlike previous cold spells there, this could help weaken the gradient off the Eastern Seaboard finally.


So while there is no negative NAO at the moment the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere developing could help develop more favourable synoptics further down the line.


Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 


But the AO forecast to go strongly positive - can't be good?


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml


 


 


Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 


Yeah the GFS hasnt been forecasting much in the way of blocking in recent runs over the Arctic, looking at the 7 day forecast however you can see the current AO is right at the lowest range of current forecasts so it has been underestimating the blocking over the North Pole.


ECM in contrast has been developing 1055mb highs over the Arctic quite often in mid range over previous days, it will be interesting to see what verifies.


Worth noting that the USA cold wave in December coincided with record breaking warmth over Florida, which in turn helped fire up the cyclogenesis, hopefully the cold displacement over the SE USA will help quiten down the Atlantic a bit.

Hull
Scandy 1050 MB
20 January 2014 10:31:08




http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html


Some noteworthy cold appearing over the continent for the first time this winter especially over Scandanavia, the block to our east may become more stubborn and stronger then is currently shown....


http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html


Also worth noting is another vigourous cold wave across Eastern USA, making its way down to Florida too unlike previous cold spells there, this could help weaken the gradient off the Eastern Seaboard finally.


So while there is no negative NAO at the moment the pattern across the Northern Hemisphere developing could help develop more favourable synoptics further down the line.


Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 


But the AO forecast to go strongly positive - can't be good?


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml


 


 


Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 


Yeah the GFS hasnt been forecasting much in the way of blocking in recent runs over the Arctic, looking at the 7 day forecast however you can see the current AO is right at the lowest range of current forecasts so it has been underestimating the blocking over the North Pole.


ECM in contrast has been developing 1055mb highs over the Arctic quite often in mid range over previous days, it will be interesting to see what verifies.


Worth noting that the USA cold wave in December coincided with record breaking warmth over Florida, which in turn helped fire up the cyclogenesis, hopefully the cold displacement over the SE USA will help quiten down the Atlantic a bit.


Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 


I think we all hope your theory is correct!  We don't want a return to December all over again...

Rob K
20 January 2014 10:39:04
Interesting.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png 

Lots of deep cold over Europe and generally more blocking.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
20 January 2014 10:53:03
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png  Lots of deep cold over Europe and generally more blocking.


 


But that Azores High is shown to be ridging further NE'wards (touching the SW UK) than it has for almost all winter. That keeps the 'slide' of the LP's too far east & the battleground in general too far NE for it to impact on us enough.


I'm wondering what's causing the Azores High to be in this position, and ponder if cyclogenesis is taking place further south off the US Eastern Seabord, having the effect of pushing the AH eastwards


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
20 January 2014 11:09:20
The Model Output via UKMO, GFS and the ECMWF is looking more and more in favour of ultimately keeping the Cold intrusions winning and sending the Low pressure SE along with the Jetstream pulses!.

We have Blocking High remain strong in Northern and especially NE Europe and with PV Low pressure cells in SW and East to Central South Europe propping up the N and NE Europe Scandy Siberian and NE Greenland Svalbard High Pressure linked closely.

We have the next 10 days sending PV Low Pressure and Vortex Sliding E and SE through the UK, they track in from North and NW Atlantic - A Jetstream having pushed to NW Atlantic from the West - rather than dragging mild air from SE USA it appears that the West to ENE Track from Central mid and East to NE USA will drag cold air from their NW and Central Canada through to Central and East NE USA.

GFS 00z, UKMO 00z, are very much better that yesterday and the day before, and the ECMWF today also an improvement.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Ally Pally Snowman
20 January 2014 11:27:03
.
Chris Fawkes on twitter saying no sign of a strat warming.

"I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February"


Bit confusing what is GFS showing then looks significant to me?




http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=10&carte=1 


We really need this to happen as its pretty much our only hope of getting a proper cold spell.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bugglesgate
20 January 2014 11:34:28
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=10&carte=1  We really need this to happen as its pretty much our only hope of getting a proper cold spell.


 


Not sure about that !  It's only one factor - surely other factors  can conspire to give a cold spell ?

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Karl Guille
20 January 2014 12:13:02

The stubbornness of the Scandi High to recede under pressure from the Atlantic is becoming more prevalent and it needs only to advect a small distance westwards to potentially give eastern and south-eastern parts more than just a glimpse of what is on offer for our continental cousins. Whilst not exactly stunning, the 06z GEFS is at least an improvement on some of the recent output!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014012006/graphe3_1000_312_115___.gif


ECM 00z ensembles for Holland have also taken a notable dip with possibly some very cold 2m temps on offer if the High can exert more of an influence in the coming days!


http://www.knmi.nl/library/php/resample_image.php?filename=/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_00_60.png


 

St. Sampson
Guernsey
Hungry Tiger
20 January 2014 12:30:51



The models are doing a very good impression of a girlfriend of mine from about 20 years ago... always teasing, but never delivering the goods.


Usual rules.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


The GFS 0z has just whispered in your ear, "my mum & dad are out this Saturday night... do you want to come over?"


Much promise, but you know between now and then something's bound to go wrong


 



Edit - the favourite thing to go wrong is for her fat, ugly friend to turn up and plonk herself on the sofa between you and refuse to budge. Her name is, obviously, Azores High.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
20 January 2014 12:33:00

Azores being a pain on GFS - But Scandi wants to get bigger.


1055 at one point for Scandi.


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Arbroath 1320
20 January 2014 12:47:39


The stubbornness of the Scandi High to recede under pressure from the Atlantic is becoming more prevalent and it needs only to advect a small distance westwards to potentially give eastern and south-eastern parts more than just a glimpse of what is on offer for our continental cousins. Whilst not exactly stunning, the 06z GEFS is at least an improvement on some of the recent output!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014012006/graphe3_1000_312_115___.gif


ECM 00z ensembles for Holland have also taken a notable dip with possibly some very cold 2m temps on offer if the High can exert more of an influence in the coming days!


http://www.knmi.nl/library/php/resample_image.php?filename=/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_00_60.png


 


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Although the high pressure to our North East is proving stubborn to budge, and if anything is projected to intensify in the mid-term, we still cannot rid ourselves of the influence of the Azores High unfortunately. Until pressure falls to our South West the best we can hope for is a fleeting Easterly or continued near misses.  


As it has been said many times before, to get a prolonged cold snowy spell from the East, we need a number of factors to align. The current model output suggests we have several of these factors; a Scandi High with favourable orientation directing a cold air mass towards us, cold uppers within touching distance of the East Coast and the Scandi High projected in some models to be joining forces with an Arctic High to our North. All very good to look at but not sufficient to influence the weather over the UK to any great extent. The set-up could change of course, but no evidence yet of the Azores High doing a runner

GGTTH
Gooner
20 January 2014 13:18:08

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-192.png?6


The control would give us some blizzards if it had its way

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
20 January 2014 13:25:55
Gooner
20 January 2014 13:37:09

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/20/basis06/ukuk/rart/14012518_2_2006.gif


J F F


These have been rare this Winter

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


sriram
20 January 2014 13:44:06
I really don't know why people keep looking at the models for cold snowy weather

Is there any enjoyment in seeing tantalising scandy highs and a strong Atlantic with wintery weather not materialising ??

The fact remains this winter has bucked the trend of recent ones just like 2008/09 was the start of a run of cold winters after all the previous mild winters

It remains to be seen if this is the start of a run of mild winters - whatever else we will always get mild wet winters and cold snowy winters irrespective of all other factors - Atlantic conveyor, global warming etc
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
roger63
20 January 2014 13:47:54


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/20/basis06/ukuk/rart/14012518_2_2006.gif


J F F


These have been rare this Winter


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


The slider scenario still does not have universalsupport (around 40% oF ENS)


Howevera couple of snpw opprtunities at 132a and 150h


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=2


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=2


 

nickl
20 January 2014 13:51:21
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=10&carte=1  We really need this to happen as its pretty much our only hope of getting a proper cold spell.


he is technically correct - there will be no ssw this side of feb but the dynamics may well be irreverible by then. remember the definition of an ssw is very precise and the effects of the warmings thus far this month have reduced the very strong westerlies in the strat such that our arctic high can form and survive if other factors allow. infact, i doubt that the scandi ridge would have survivied so long had we been in early jan.


btw, remaining too complex to call but i note decent agreement between the ecm ens and gefs 06z mean around day 8.


 

Frostbite80
20 January 2014 14:30:18
roger63
20 January 2014 14:40:13


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=10&carte=1  We really need this to happen as its pretty much our only hope of getting a proper cold spell.

Originally Posted by: nickl 


he is technically correct - there will be no ssw this side of feb but the dynamics may well be irreverible by then. remember the definition of an ssw is very precise and the effects of the warmings thus far this month have reduced the very strong westerlies in the strat such that our arctic high can form and survive if other factors allow. infact, i doubt that the scandi ridge would have survivied so long had we been in early jan.


btw, remaining too complex to call but i note decent agreement between the ecm ens and gefs 06z mean around day 8.


 



Nickl please could you tell me what is the preicse definition  of an SSW event.if threr   aceratin amount of rise in n temp in a certain time priod and where in the atmosphere iis it measured?


 


Thanks R

Quantum
20 January 2014 14:53:19



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=10&carte=1  We really need this to happen as its pretty much our only hope of getting a proper cold spell.

Originally Posted by: roger63 


he is technically correct - there will be no ssw this side of feb but the dynamics may well be irreverible by then. remember the definition of an ssw is very precise and the effects of the warmings thus far this month have reduced the very strong westerlies in the strat such that our arctic high can form and survive if other factors allow. infact, i doubt that the scandi ridge would have survivied so long had we been in early jan.


btw, remaining too complex to call but i note decent agreement between the ecm ens and gefs 06z mean around day 8.


 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


Nickl please could you tell me what is the preicse definition  of an SSW event.if threr   aceratin amount of rise in n temp in a certain time priod and where in the atmosphere iis it measured?


 


Thanks R



I think the definition is the same as 'major strat warming event' which requires the complete destruction of the polar vortext and reversal of wind direction at 10hpa. Merly displacing the polar vortex doesn't count. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
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